德国民众对默尔茨及其政府深感不满萨宾·金卡茨 2026年10月2日在两德统一36周年之际,德国民众对国家政治领导人普遍不满。他们认为这些领导人无力应对人工智能、俄罗斯以及唐纳德·特朗普所带来的种种挑战。
Germans unite in frustration with Merz and his government Sabine Kinkartz October 2, 2026 On the 36th anniversary of reunification, Germans are dissatisfied with the country's political leaders. They don't believe they'll be able to handle the challenges posed by AI, Russia and Donald Trump.
社会民主党领袖兼副总理拉尔斯·克林贝伊尔(左)与基民盟领袖、总理弗里德里希·默尔茨正感受到来自民众的巨大压力。在1990年两德统一纪念日10月3日来临前夕,民意调查机构Infratest Dimap对1303名有投票资格的选民进行了调查,以了解他们对自身处境的看法。在自认是东德人的受访者中,仅有20%认为统一带来了个人利益,44%则表示从中受益;仅有四分之一的人认为统一对自己并无重大影响。
SPD leader and Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil (l) and CDU leader and Chancellor Friedrich Merz are feeling the mounting pressure on their government Ahead of October 3, which marks the reunification of West and East Germany in 1990, pollster infratest dimap asked 1303 eligible voters to assess their personal situation. Twenty percent of those identifying as East Germans but 44% see personal advantages. Only a quarter said reunification had no major impact on them personally.
超过半数的西德受访者表示,两德统一并未对他们的个人生活产生显著影响。其余受访者则意见不一:19%认为统一带来了积极影响,18%则认为产生了负面影响。
More than half of West German respondents said reunification had no major impact on their personal lives. The remaining half is split: 19% said reunification had a positive impact, while 18% said it had a negative one.
今年9月,德国举行了三场州级选举,其中两场在东部各州举行。这些选举被视为检验全国选民情绪的重要指标。结果对以总理弗里德里希·默尔茨为首的右翼基督教民主联盟极为不利。在萨克森-安哈尔特州及柏林市这两个基民盟此前执政的地区,该党得票率较上次选举下降了10%,并失去了执政权。在梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚州,该党甚至未能达到5%的议会席位门槛。
Germany held three state elections in September, two of them in eastern states. They were seen as a test of nationwide voter sentiment. The results were particularly devastating for the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU), the party of Chancellor Friedrich Merz Saxony-Anhalt and the city-state of Berlin, where it had been in government, the CDU dropped by 10% compared to the previous election and lost its hold on power. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania the party even failed to cross the 5% threshold for representation in parliament.
这在德国历史上尚属首次。默尔茨面临巨大压力:基民盟议员谈选举失利为观看此视频,请点击此处。默尔茨希望继续留任总理一职。长期以来,默尔茨的民意支持率一直偏低,而选举失利后这一数字更是进一步下滑。他所领导的执政联盟由基民盟、保守派基督教社会联盟以及中左翼的社会民主党组成,整体支持率同样低迷。
This has never happened before in Germany's history. Merz under pressure: CDU lawmaker on election setbacks To view this video , and Chancellor Merz wants to remain in office Merz has long been unpopular and has seen his support fall even further in the aftermath of the elections. The coalition he leads, comprised of the CDU, the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), is unpopular.
调查显示,仅有十分之一的受访者对联邦政府的工作及默尔茨的表现感到满意,这一比例创下了历史新低。就连40%的基民盟支持者也表示对默尔茨不再满意。极右翼的德国选择党在全国民调中领先被国内情报机构定性为部分具有极右翼极端倾向的德国选择党,持续从选民对中间派政党的不满情绪中获益。
Only one in 10 respondents in the survey said they were satisfied with the federal government's work and the chancellor's performance, a historic low. Only 40% of CDU supporters say they are still satisfied with Merz. Far-right AfD in the lead nationwide Alternative for Germany (AfD), which the domestic intelligence agency has classified as, in part, far-right extremist, continues to benefit from the voter dissatisfaction with the centrist parties.
如果现在举行大选,基民盟/基社盟联盟仅能获得20%的选票。这一比例堪称该党历史上最低水平,与1990年德国统一后首次大选中所获得的43.8%的得票率相去甚远。社会民主党的支持率仅为13%。这意味着执政联盟整体得票率甚至不到三分之一,也将失去议会多数席位。
If a general election were held now, the CDU/CSU alliance would win only 20% of the vote. That is one of the lowest figures in the party's history and a far cry from the 43.8% it won in the first election after reunification in 1990. The SPD polls at only 13%. This means that the ruling parties together would not even win one-third of the vote and would lose their majority in parliament.
德国选择党仍将是最强大的政治力量,其全国民调支持率稳定在27%左右。环保派绿党支持率略有上升,达到16%;而社会主义左翼党则相应下降,目前得票率为11%。在这样的结果下,要组建议会多数派将是一项极其艰巨的任务。人工智能、俄罗斯问题及唐纳德·特朗普的政策当前德国的整体局势令仅八分之一的民众感到乐观,近九成民众则忧心忡忡。支持德国选择党和左翼党的选民尤为担忧。
The AfD would remain the strongest political force. It has been polling steadily at 27% nationwide. The environmentalist Greens are up slightly, reaching 16%, while the socialist Left Party has dropped by the same margin, landing at 11%. With this result, it would be a Herculean task to form a majority in the national parliament. AI, Russia and Donald Trump's policies The overall situation in Germany gives only one in eight people cause for optimism, while nearly nine in 10 express concern. Voters for the AfD and the Left Party are particularly worried.
三分之二的受访者表示,他们担心人类可能无法控制人工智能;同样比例的受访者则担忧美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的政策会给德国带来负面影响。六成受访者对气候变化表示担忧,略超半数的受访者担心俄罗斯可能会对欧洲其他国家发动攻击。约一半的受访者担心自己未来难以维持现有的生活水平,同样比例的受访者也对移民问题心存顾虑。不过,对德国人而言,最令人担忧的仍是各政党无法就关键政治议题达成共识。
Two-thirds of respondents said they're worried that humans could lose control over artificial intelligence and just as many are worried about the consequences of US President Donald Trump 's policies for Germany. Six in 10 expressed concern about climate change, and just over half said they are worried that Russia could attack other countries in Europe About one in two respondents fear they will not be able to maintain their standard of living in the future. A similar number are concerned about immigration to Germany By far the biggest source of concern for Germans, however, is that political parties cannot find common answers to key political issues.
为何德国的中间派势力日渐式微?社会改革必须做到公平合理。德国正迅速步入老龄化社会,劳动力数量不断减少,却要承担越来越多的退休人员的供养责任。
Why Germany's political center is losing ground Social reforms must be fair Germany is a rapidly aging country. Fewer working people must support an ever-increasing number of retirees.
老龄化社会也给医疗体系带来巨大压力。自2015年以来,需要长期护理的人数从约280万增加至约650万,且这一趋势仍在持续。
The aging society also strains the health care system. Since 2015, the number of people in need of long-term care has risen from about 2.8 million to about 6.5 million — and the trend continues to rise.
根据ARD Deutschlandtrend调查,仅有六分之一的合格选民认为联邦政府能够确保社会保障体系在未来具备可持续性。并非所有受访者都愿意自掏腰包承担费用:倾向于支持左翼政党的选民更有可能接受提高社保缴费额而非削减福利;而德国选择党及基民盟/基社盟的选民则持相反态度。
According to the ARD Deutschlandtrend survey, only one in six eligible voters believes that the federal government will succeed in making the social security systems sustainable for the future Not all respondents said they are willing to dig into their own pockets: Voters who tend to support left-leaning parties would be more likely to accept higher social security contributions than benefit cuts. Among AfD and CDU/CSU voters, the opposite is true.
四分之三的受访者认为政府提出的改革措施自相矛盾。尽管政府曾承诺减轻民众负担,但受访者仍抱怨自身负担日益加重。
Three-quarters of respondents view the government's proposed reform measures as contradictory. They complain about an ever-increasing burden, even though the government had promised relief.
德国各年龄层民众对养老金制度的看法:61%的人认为,即便这会加重部分人的负担,养老金削减幅度仍应依据个人的经济能力来定。
What Germans young and old think about the pension system Sixty-one percent say that cuts should be scaled according to individual financial capacity, even if this would place a heavier burden on some people.
如果能以合乎情理的方式解释减支的必要性,半数受访者愿意接受相关措施。这对政策制定者而言是个明确的信号:改革需要充分的解释与社会层面的平衡,否则便难以获得民众支持。
One in two would be more willing to accept cuts if the necessity were explained in a way that made sense. The message to policymakers is clear: reforms require explanation and social balance; otherwise, they lose acceptance.
福利制度与医疗体系被视为德国的重要成就。当被问及与其他国家相比德国哪些方面做得特别好时,受访者最常提到的就是社会福利与医疗服务。而教育、学校、职业培训及大学则排在最后。
The welfare state and the health care system are regarded as key achievements in Germany. When asked what works particularly well in Germany compared to other countries, survey respondents most often cited social benefits and medical care. Education, schools, vocational training and universities came in last place.
能源政策目前被视为一个棘手问题。居高不下的能源价格持续给民众与德国经济带来负担。波斯湾地区的持续危机更推高了油价,进而影响到德国的燃油与电价水平。
Energy policy is seen as a problem High energy prices continue to burden citizens and the German economy. The ongoing crisis in the Persian Gulf driving oil prices even higher This is impacting fuel and electricity prices in Germany.
在ARD Deutschlandtrend的调查中,多数受访者认为政府在应对高能源价格方面做得不够;四分之三的人表示政府的举措力度不足。
Respondents to the ARD Deutschlandtrend survey found that the government is not doing enough to address high energy prices Three-quarters of them said the government's efforts are insufficient.
自10月1日起,“燃油补贴”政策再度实施:直至年底,联邦政府将汽油与柴油的能源税每升下调约17欧分(约合0.19美元)。今年5月初至6月底也曾实施过类似的补贴措施,当时政府为此付出了34亿欧元的代价。
A "Tankrabatt" (fuel discount) has again come into effect on October 1: Through the end of the year, the federal government is reducing the energy tax on gasoline and diesel by about 17 eurocents ($0.19) per liter. A similar discount was already in place from early May through the end of June. That cost the government €3.4 billion.
由于加油站及石油企业并未将全部补贴优惠转嫁给消费者,部分资金最终流入了这些企业的口袋。对此,专家们持批评态度。
Some of that money ended up in the pockets of oil companies and gas station operators because they did not pass on the full discount. Experts view the measure critically.
此外,在能源供应短缺的情况下反而降低化石燃料价格,从气候政策角度来看也颇具争议。这项新的燃油补贴政策并未获得民众的热烈响应;在ARD Deutschlandtrend的调查中,半数受访者认为这一举措并非良策。
Added to this is the fact that fossil fuels are being made cheaper despite shortages, which is controversial from a climate policy perspective. The new fuel discount has received only a lukewarm reception among the public; half of those surveyed in the ARD Deutschlandtrend poll believe it is the wrong approach.