法新社/盖蒂图片社 自1968年那次臭名昭著的抗议以来，法国历届政府都知道年轻人涌上街头所蕴含的力量 休·斯科菲尔德 巴黎记者 1小时前 法国所有领导人都格外警惕一句箴言：年轻人走上街头就意味着麻烦。
School protests send shivers down French government's spine AFP via Getty Images Since the infamous protests of 1968, French governments have known the power of young people taking to the streets Hugh Schofield Paris correspondent 1 hour ago It is a piece of wisdom that all French leaders take care to heed: young people on the street equals trouble.
自1968年5月学生抗议以来——戴高乐总统曾将其 memorable地称为“chienlit”（床上排泄物，换言之就是混乱）——每届政府都害怕愤怒的法国青年。
Since the student protests of May 1968 – memorably described by President De Gaulle as chienlit (bed defecation, in other words chaos) – every government has run scared of angry French youth.
为什么？因为青年运动难以预测、没有固定形态，往往也没有可供谈判的明确架构。因为一旦他们发起抗议，其他群体也会加入。
Why? Because youth movements are unpredictable and shapeless, often with no clear structure to negotiate with. Because when they protest, other groups join in.
此外，还因为他们年轻，公众往往更同情他们。而且，如果警察处置不当，造成人员受伤甚至更严重的后果，那么后果就无法估量。况且距离总统选举只剩几个月。正因如此，每当“愤怒的青年”筑起路障时，政府都会格外谨慎。
Also: because as they're young, the public tends to sympathise. And because if the police mess up and cause injury or worse, then the consequences are incalculable. And presidential elections are only months away. For all these reasons, when la jeunesse en colère (angry youth) is at the barricades governments tread very carefully indeed.
眼下，法国青少年正在设置路障。尽管他们表面上并没有愤怒之情（现场气氛更像是兴奋），但他们确实让埃马纽埃尔·马克龙总统政府冒出了《世界报》周五所称的“冷汗”。
Right now, French teenagers are at the barricades and if they are not visibly angry (the mood is more excitement), they certainly have the government of President Emmanuel Macron in what Le Monde called on Friday "the cold sweats".
这场运动近两周前始于巴黎北部低收入的塞纳-圣但尼地区，并在过去几天蔓延至全国。
A movement that started nearly two weeks ago in the low-income Seine-Saint-Denis area of northern Paris has in the last few days spread across the country.
周四——迄今为止局势最紧张的一天——数百所高中遭到封锁。周五，局势有所缓和，但约400所高中仍停课，以保护教职员工和学生的安全。各大学也开始加入抗议。
On Thursday – the high point so far – hundreds of lycées (where 15-18 year-olds finish their schooling) were being blockaded. On Friday, the situation had improved but around 400 lycées were closed in order to protect staff and students. Universities are beginning to join in.
暴力事件已经爆发。周四，南特一所高中的主楼被火焚毁。全国各地学校入口处还发生了多起规模较小、不胜枚举的纵火事件。损失达数百万欧元。
Violence has erupted. On Thursday the main hall of a lycée in Nantes was destroyed by fire. Smaller fires too numerable to mention were lit at school entrance gates around the country. The cost of the damage is millions of euros.
据教育部长爱德华·热夫雷表示，包括40名校长在内，已有65名教职人员受伤。他说：“大多数受伤的工作人员表示，他们面对的人……并不是自己的学生。”
According to Education Minister Édouard Geffray, 65 teaching staff including 40 school heads have been injured. "Most of the staff who were hurt said that the people they were facing… were not their own pupils," he said.
抗议活动已蔓延至法国各地，一些大学生也开始加入。与此同时，政府表示，约300名警察和消防员因伤接受了治疗，另有约2000人——主要是未成年人——被拘留。学生团体则称，他们列有一长串遭警方致伤的人员名单。两名青少年眼部受重伤，其中一人还掉了多颗牙。
The protests have spread across France, and some university students are now joining in In addition, the government says that around 300 police and firefighters have been treated for injuries, and some 2,000 people – mainly minors – taken into custody. For their part, student groups say they have a long list of people injured by police. Two teenagers have serious eye injuries and one has lost many of his teeth.
如果问题仅仅是满足抗议者的要求，本来就已经够难了。但问题还有另一个层面——政治和社会层面——这使这次学生危机比以往更加危险。
The problem would be hard enough if it was just a question of meeting the protesters' demands. But there is another dimension – a political and social one – which makes this student crisis far more dangerous than in the past.
抗议者确实提出了要求，尽管这些要求仍很模糊。他们关心的是资金短缺，以及增加教师、缩小班级和改善校舍的需要。
The demands do exist, even if they remain vague. They are about money – the lack of it – and the need for more teachers, smaller classes and better buildings. On such matters, many in France would agree with the teenagers.
在这些问题上，法国许多人都赞同这些青少年的看法 Certainly using protest to demand money from government is such a national habit that even governments agree it's legitimate. And of course, things are indeed getting worse in the education system – because money is so tight. This week Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu published his draft for next year's budget.
Certainly using protest to demand money from government is such a national habit that even governments agree it's legitimate. And of course, things are indeed getting worse in the education system – because money is so tight.
The motif is "More cuts – and this time we're serious!" Whether or not he manages to remove €54bn (£46bn) from state spending, as he promises, remains open to question. But it is surely obvious that the era of public largesse to defuse social unrest in France is now in its twilight.
This week Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu published his draft for next year's budget. The motif is "More cuts – and this time we're serious!" Whether or not he manages to remove €54bn (£46bn) from state spending, as he promises, remains open to question. But it is surely obvious that the era of public largesse to defuse social unrest in France is now in its twilight.
Students demanding an extra school nurse or insulation in the dining-block are likely to be disappointed. But that is the lesser of the worries.更令人担忧的是，这些学生抗议活动很可能受到了极左势力的操纵；近期发生的暴力事件或许正是这个日益两极分化的社会在即将到来的选举年中将要面临的预兆。
Students demanding an extra school nurse or insulation in the dining-block are likely to be disappointed. But that is the lesser of the worries. The far greater fear is that these student protests are being manipulated by the hard left – and that the violence of recent days is a foretaste of what awaits a dangerously polarised society in the year of elections that is coming.
对于右翼及中间派而言，毫无疑问，这场学生骚乱的背后有“不屈法国”党及其人气颇高的总统候选人让-吕克·梅朗雄在暗中操控。
For the right and centre, there is no doubt that behind the student trouble lies the cunning hand of the France Unbowed party (LFI) and its popular presidential candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
“不屈法国”党的领导人频频出现在学生群体中——尤其是在巴黎郊区的圣但尼市。该市市长巴利·巴加约科曾因声称“某些情况下暴力行为具有正当性”而遭到批评。
LFI leaders have regularly appeared next to the students – notably in the Paris suburb of Saint-Denis whose mayor Bally Bagayoko was criticised for saying that "violence can sometimes be legitimate."
据盖蒂图片社报道，巴利·巴加约科（左）与总统候选人让-吕克·梅朗雄（右）均支持学生行使抗议权利。一份泄露给媒体的巴黎警方内部报告分析了塞纳-圣但尼省抗议活动的起因，指出学生群体“受到了各学生会中的极左分子以及‘不屈法国’党等政治团体的煽动”。报告还称，这些紧张局势“很可能属于某种挑起事端的策略，目的是在全国大选前推行他们的政治主张”。
Getty Images Bally Bagayoko (left) and presidential candidater Jean-Luc Mélenchon (right) have supported the right of the students to protest An internal report prepared for the Paris police department which was leaked to the media analysed the opening of the movement in Seine-Saint-Denis. It concluded that students were being "egged on by far-left elements from students unions… and political groups such as… LFI." It said the tensions "could be part of a flame-kindling strategy… aimed at imposing their ideas ahead of the national elections".
为佐证这一结论，报告撰写者列举了诸多证据：参与者中不乏并非高中生的人员、抗议诉求模糊不清、有人挥舞巴勒斯坦与阿尔及利亚国旗，以及采用诸如号召在警察局前举行额外抗议之类的典型极左派手段。
In support of its conclusion, the report's writers cited the presence of protesters who are not themselves lycéens the vagueness of the demands, the flying of Palestinian and Algerian flags, and the use of tactics – like calling for supplementary protests at police-stations - that come from the radical-left playbook.
“不屈法国”党坚决否认自己做了任何超出“对一场他们认为合法的运动予以支持”范畴的事。周四，梅朗雄呼吁学生们避免采取暴力行为，“那样做只会有利于我们的敌人”。
The LFI strongly denies doing anything more than lending its natural support to a movement it regards as legitimate. On Thursday Mélenchon called on students to avoid violence "which only serves our enemies' interests".
然而他的反对者则认为，这位75岁的老牌政客——他极有可能在5月的总统选举中进入第二轮投票，对手很可能是极右翼的玛丽娜·勒庞——心里清楚自己在做什么。
But his opponents believe that the 75-year-old veteran – who stands a good chance of making it to the second round of the presidential elections in May, probably against the hard-right's Marine Le Pen – knows exactly what he is doing.
民意调查显示，他在法国18至24岁的年轻人中拥有极高支持率——比例约为40%。这些支持者主要集中在人口密集且移民众多的城市郊区，他们十分认同梅朗雄提出的打造“新法国”以及推动“克里奥尔化”的理念，认为这能体现法国语言与人口结构的变迁。
Polls show he has massive support – some 40% -- among 18-24 year-olds in France, and that this is concentrated in the populous, high-immigration city suburbs where his talk of a "new France" and "creolisation", to reflect France's changing language and population, are highly appreciated.
不过，年轻人也是法国选举中投票率最低的群体。因此随着选举临近，相关策略便是不断向这一群体传递一个信息：不屈法国联盟始终站在他们一边，他们的选票举足轻重。
But young people are also the biggest abstainers in French elections, so the strategy – as the elections approach – will be to give constant reminders to this part of the population that the LFI is at their side, and that their vote can count.
至于这一策略能否确保梅朗雄获胜，则是另一回事了。各项民调均显示，若进入第二轮投票，梅朗雄将大幅输给勒庞，他理应对此予以高度重视。
Whether this will be enough to ensure victory for Mélenchon is another matter. He must surely take seriously the polls which all show him losing massively in a run-off against Le Pen.
倘若果真如此，法国局势将陷入极度动荡——而近期年轻人的抗议活动，其实正是这种动荡的先兆。法国 法国政治
If that happens, France will be in very unstable territory - for which the young people's protests of recent days will indeed have been a harbinger. France French politics