作者：亨利·泽夫曼去年，当凯米·巴戴诺克以保守党领袖身份首次出席党代会时，她随行人员中有人听到有人小声嘀咕：“那是谁？” 这位困惑的旁观者其实正是保守党大会的工作人员。此时，巴戴诺克担任党领袖及反对党领袖已近一年时间。
By Henry Zeffman When Kemi Badenoch arrived for her first Conservative conference as leader last year, a member of her entourage overheard somebody wonder aloud: "Who's that?" This baffled member of the public was actually working at the Conservative conference. Badenoch had been the party's leader and the leader of the opposition for almost a year.
这个小故事充分体现了巴戴诺克在那次大会上所面临的巨大挑战。如今，她的支持者们也愿意坦率承认：那次大会对她能否稳坐领袖之位至关重要。
It is an anecdote which underlines the scale of the challenge Badenoch faced at that conference, an event her allies are now with distance willing to acknowledge was make or break for her leadership.
同时，这个故事也说明，那次大会非但没有击垮巴戴诺克，反而成了她实现重大转折的起点。
And it is an anecdote which also underlines that, far from break her, that conference represented the start of a major turnaround for Badenoch.
十二个月后，本周末巴戴诺克将抵达伯明翰。此时她已完全掌控了整个政党——在经历了多年艰难处境、先是备战又遭遇惨痛选举失利之后，保守党内的骨干成员们如今也开始偶尔流露出些许乐观情绪。
Twelve months on, Badenoch will arrive in Birmingham this weekend in total command of a party whose leading lights are beginning to permit themselves the occasional flicker of optimism after years of misery preparing for, and then experiencing, a brutal election defeat.
不过，尽管保守党人如今坚信他们的领袖是一大竞选优势，但他们仍面临“改革英国党”带来的生存威胁，还需调整战略以应对新任首相安迪·伯纳姆。
Yet for all that Conservatives now believe their leader is an electoral asset, they still face an existential threat from Reform UK and the challenge of how to adjust their strategy to face a new prime minister, Andy Burnham.
针对这两大难题，巴戴诺克的应对之策便是聚焦经济。“经济更强，国家更强”将成为本次党代会的口号。她将于周日和周三分别发表演讲，进一步阐述过去两周里提出的削减长期失业者福利的相关举措。如今，福利开支日益被保守党视为与工党争夺的关键战场。
The answer to both those issues for Badenoch is a focus on the economy. "Stronger economy, stronger country" will be the party's conference slogan, with the two speeches Badenoch gives - one on Sunday, the other on Wednesday - building on announcements she has made in the past two weeks about cutting benefits for the long-term unemployed. Welfare spending is increasingly seen by the Conservatives as a core battleground with Labour.
在工党大会期间，保守党人嘲讽称其为“福利党大会”。基尔·斯塔默爵士原本打算削减福利开支，却因遭到本党议员的强烈反对而作罢；而伯纳姆则明确表示，他认为从长远来看，减少福利开支支出的关键在于加大对失业人群的扶持投入。
During Labour conference they derided the event as the "Welfare Party Conference". Whereas Sir Keir Starmer sought to cut welfare spending before backing down in the face of a rebellion by his own MPs, Burnham has made clear that he believes the way to reduce the benefits bill in the long-term is more up-front investment in support for those out of work.
这是一种明显的意识形态差异，两党都乐于接受。保守党战略家们认为这其中蕴含着更深刻的启示。
This is a clear ideological difference which both parties are happy to embrace. Conservative strategists believe there is a broader lesson there.
“一段时间以来，两党间的分歧一直较为模糊，”一位人士说道，“如今伯纳姆出任首相，我们看到了更为传统的左右派划分。”接下来，巴登诺赫还会在养老金“三重保障机制”这一问题上强化这种分歧。
"The differences between the parties have been quite muddled for a while," one says. "Now that Burnham is prime minister we have a more traditional left-right split." Another area where Badenoch will embrace that divide in the coming days is the pensions triple-lock.
目前这项政策规定，国家养老金的涨幅需与通货膨胀率、工资增长水平或2.5%中的最高值保持一致，每年都会相应上调。
The policy currently guarantees the state pension goes up each year in line with either inflation, wage increases, or 2.5% – whichever is the highest.
巴登诺赫将明确表示，保守党仍支持现行形式的该政策。这一立场与许多原本持支持态度的智库及政策专家的观点相悖——后者认为巴登诺赫应当效仿伯纳姆的做法。
Badenoch will make clear that the Conservatives continue to support that policy in its current form, breaking with some generally supportive think tanks and policy experts who believe Badenoch should follow Burnham's lead.
在周二的党代会演讲中，伯纳姆提出了从2030年起废除现行“三重保障机制”的计划：今后国家养老金的涨幅至少需达到通货膨胀率或2.5%的水平，但不再与平均工资水平自动挂钩。
In his conference speech on Tuesday, Burnham set out plans to end the existing triple lock from 2030, so the state pension increases at least by inflation or 2.5% - but remove the automatic annual link with average earnings.
保守党希望这种日益明显的左右派分化能让“改革英国党”陷入战略困境，使其在政治光谱上的定位变得不那么清晰。
The Conservatives hope the sharpening left-right split leaves Reform UK in a strategic bind, occupying a less obvious place on that spectrum.
一年前，一些保守党高层曾担心该党会被“改革英国党”取代，成为右翼阵营的领军力量，但如今他们乐观地认为奈杰尔·法拉奇领导的政党正不可避免地走向衰落。
A year ago some senior Conservatives feared being usurped by Reform as the leading party of the right was a near-inevitability, but now they are optimistic that Nigel Farage's party is on an inexorable slide.
这种乐观情绪很大程度上源于“改革英国党”所遭遇的种种难题：比如奈杰尔·法拉奇收受克里斯托弗·哈伯恩500万英镑捐赠一事引发的争议，以及近期《第四频道新闻》调查所引发的连锁反应——包括警方介入调查等。
That bullishness is fuelled in large part by the difficulties Reform has faced over Nigel Farage's £5m gift from Christopher Harborne and the fallout - including a police inquiry - from the recent Channel 4 News investigation.
“越来越多的选民向我表达了对‘改革英国党’的担忧——这些人此前根本不会理睬我们，”一位议员说道，“他们都是事业有成的人，拥有宽敞的车库和体面的工作，平时未必会关注政治，但希望看到一个奉行温和保守主义理念的政府。”
"I find more and more voters raise concerns about Reform with me - people who weren't previously giving us the time of day," one MP said. "These are successful people with big garages and good jobs who do not necessarily pay that much attention but want a small-c conservative government.
“他们原本转投改革党，是因为受够了我们，还认为法拉奇如今是右翼阵营的主要选择。不过现在他们又开始回归了。”也有不少人持保留态度，指出在民意调查中改革党获得的支持率仍常常高于保守党；更重要的是，在近年来的地方及全国选举中，改革党获得的选票数也远超保守党。
"They were switching to Reform because they were fed up with us and thought Farage was now the main option on the right. But they are starting to come back." Others are less positive, pointing out that Reform still often record higher shares than the Conservatives in the polls — and more importantly have now won far more votes than them in successive years of local and national elections.
无论保守党是否真的会出现以牺牲改革党支持率为代价而重振声势的长期趋势，巴代诺克恐怕也等不到那一天了。
Whether or not there is indeed a long-term trend of the Conservatives regaining ground at Reform's expense, Badenoch may not have long enough to wait.
她已指示团队以这次大会为大选前的最后一次会议来筹备。虽然并非所有幕僚都认同这一观点，但巴代诺克坚信伯纳姆会在明年内宣布举行大选。
She has told her team to prepare for this conference as if it is the last before the general election. While not all of her aides agree, Badenoch is convinced that Burnham will go to the polls within the next year.
伯纳姆接替斯塔默后不久，保守党高层便开始每周召开选举筹备会议。
Party high command started weekly election planning meetings shortly after Burnham succeeded Starmer.
巴代诺克领导的影子内阁成员尼尔·奥布莱恩正与党内的政策负责人共同起草竞选纲领。这份纲领力求比以往冗长的竞选文件更为简明扼要。
Neil O'Brien, a member of Badenoch's shadow cabinet, has begun work on a manifesto alongside the party's head of policy. It is intended to be a more concise set of pledges than the usual sprawling manifestos.
同样出于大选考量，保守党还将在大会上推出一批已申请成为下届大选候选人的新面孔。
Also with an eye to the election, the Conservatives will present new faces at the conference who have applied to be candidates at the next election.
对于2024年落选的前议员能否再次代表本党参选，巴代诺克的态度时而模棱两可、时而坚决反对，这一立场引发了不少争议，尤其是涉及备受瞩目的前内阁大臣格兰特·沙普斯与彭妮·莫当特时更是如此。
Badenoch's ambivalence in some cases, and opposition in others, to ex-MPs who lost their seats in 2024 standing for the party again has attracted some controversy, especially when it comes to the high-profile former cabinet ministers Grant Shapps and Penny Mordaunt.
不过，支持这位党魁的人士毫不悔意，他们坚称该党“必须展现出我们已经有所改变”。
The leader's supporters are unrepentant, arguing that the party "needs to show we have changed".
至少从去年至今，情况确实发生了变化。而这可能只是最容易做到的部分罢了。欲了解威斯敏斯特及更广泛领域的内部动态，敬请持续关注。
Things have certainly changed since last year, at least. That may prove the easy part. to keep up with the inner workings of Westminster and beyond.