汤姆·里斯报道 经济学家警告称，如果唐纳德·特朗普总统停止美国柴油出口，英国通胀率可能接近5%，此前英国司机见证柴油价格首次突破每升2英镑（2.7美元）。
By Tom Rees UK inflation could near 5% if President Donald Trump stopped US exports of diesel, economists warned after motorists saw prices hit £2 ($2.7) per liter for the first time ever.
预测人士表示，长期禁令将导致柴油价格飙升至每升3英镑以上，并将英国通胀率推高多达一个百分点，这将是另一重大供给冲击，只会强化英格兰银行加息的理由。
Forecasters said a prolonged ban would lead to diesel prices topping £3 per liter and push up UK inflation by as much as one percentage point, another major supply shock that would only strengthen the case for Bank of England interest-rate hikes.
随着七国集团国家将在未来四个月释放多达1亿桶柴油和原油以缓解当前紧张局势的消息传出，欧洲柴油价格和布伦特原油期货大幅下跌。
The warnings came as news emerged that Group of Seven countries will release as much as 100 million barrels of diesel and oil over the next four months to ease the current strains. European diesel prices and Brent crude futures slumped.
特朗普政府曾提出可能实施出口禁令，除非欧洲国家释放储备以平抑价格，这一举措将对英国造成特别严重打击，因为英国是最大买家之一。
The Trump administration has floated the possibility of an export ban unless European nations freed up stockpiles to quell prices, a move that would hit the UK particularly hard as one of the biggest buyers.
英国汽车协会（RAC）周五表示，平均柴油价格首次突破每升2英镑，这意味着加满一个55升油箱的成本比中东冲突爆发前增加了32英镑。
British motoring organization the RAC said on Friday that average diesel prices crossed £2 per liter for the first time, meaning filling up a 55-liter tank would cost £32 more than before the Middle East conflict began.
鉴于英国严重依赖进口，且火车和卡车的需求不太可能因供应减少而大幅下降，柴油供应中断对英国构成特别威胁。交通部长基尔·马瑟周五表示，英国在柴油方面拥有“韧性强”且“供应来源多元化”。RSM UK首席经济学家托马斯·普格表示，在长期禁令情景下，美国柴油禁令可能使英国通胀率增加半个百分点。这包括价格飙升迅速通过供应链传导至消费者的间接影响。
Disruption to diesel supply into Britain is particularly menacing given it is heavily reliant on imports and demand from trains and trucks is unlikely fall enough in response to supply. Transport minister Keir Mather said on Friday that Britain has a “resilient” and “diverse range of supply when it comes to diesel.”Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, said a US diesel ban could add half a percentage point to UK inflation in a scenario where there is a prolonged ban. That includes indirect effects from a price surge filtering down supply chains to consumers rapidly.
“一夜之间损失20%的柴油将是一个非常艰难的调整，”普格说。“更大的冲击来自间接影响，因为柴油用于所有工业和卡车运输。指望企业不会将其转嫁出去是非常一厢情愿的想法。”这威胁要给已经面临艰难冬季的消费者和企业增加压力，预计1月燃气和电费将飙升，并将在明年初推高通胀至4%以上。
“Losing 20% of diesel overnight would be a very tough adjustment,” Pugh said. “The much bigger hit comes from your indirect effects, because diesel is used in all industry and trucking. The idea that firms wouldn’t pass that through is very wishful thinking.”It threatens to pile pressure on consumers and businesses already facing a difficult winter, with gas and electricity bills forecast to surge in January and push inflation above 4% early next year.
英格兰银行官员倾向于加息，以阻止能源冲击广泛传导至经济。他们还担心，如果超强厄尔尼诺现象扰乱全球天气模式和关键农作物收成，可能引发新一轮食品通胀。
BOE officials are edging toward raising interest rates to stop the energy shock spreading widely though the economy. They also fear the supersized El Niño could cause a fresh wave of food inflation if it disrupts global weather patterns and harvests of key crops.
这使得财政大臣约翰·希利面临越来越多的呼吁，要求他在本月晚些时候紧张的预算中腾出空间，提供进一步的生活成本援助。游说团体敦促希利按计划阻止1月燃油税上调。
It leaves Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey facing growing calls to find room in a tight budget later this month to deliver further help with the cost of living. Lobby groups are urging Healey to stop fuel duties rising in January as planned.
问题的部分在于，鉴于柴油用于经济的许多关键部门，其需求对价格变化不太敏感。经济学家估计，价格需要上涨10%才能使需求下降1%。
Part of the problem is demand for diesel isn’t very sensitive to changes to the price given it is used in many vital parts of the economy. Economists estimate that prices would need to rise 10% to lower demand by 1%.
根据凯投宏观的数据，英国似乎更加脆弱，因为其柴油储备少于许多其他欧洲国家。其首席英国经济学家保罗·戴尔斯表示，柴油冲击可能使通胀增加1个百分点，农业、建筑和运输部门受冲击最严重。
The UK appears more exposed given it has less diesel in storage than many other European countries, according to Capital Economics. Its chief UK economist Paul Dales said a diesel shock could add 1 percentage point to inflation with the agriculture, construction and transport sectors hit hardest.
“5.3%的峰值将增加二轮通胀效应的可能性，并可能意味着英格兰银行加息幅度更大、时间更长，”他说。“美国全面禁止出口可能将英国柴油价格从目前已经令人咋舌的每升2英镑推高至每升3英镑左右。”
“A peak of 5.3% would raise the chances of second-round inflation effects and could mean the Bank of England raises interest rate further and for longer than otherwise,” he said. “A full US ban on exports could raise UK diesel prices from their current already eye-watering level of £2 a liter to around £3 a liter.”