地区和西方官员告诉路透社,沙特阿拉伯正在准备对伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装发动新的军事进攻,正在考虑的计划包括集中的沿海攻击到在多条战线上进行更广泛的攻击。据六位知情人士透露,此次行动预计将于未来几周开始,将由也门军队在利雅得的监督下领导,并在沙特空袭的支持下进行。官员们表示,根据行动规模,可能会调动超过10万名也门军队。
Saudi Arabia is preparing a new military offensive against Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, with plans under consideration ranging from a focused coastal assault to a broader attack on several fronts, regional and Western officials told Reuters. The operation, expected to begin in the coming weeks, would be led on the ground by Yemeni forces overseen by Riyadh and backed by Saudi airstrikes, according to six people familiar with the preparations. More than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilized depending on the scale of the operation, the officials said.
一个核心目标是扭转胡塞武装上个月的迅速扩张,当时他们沿着也门海岸推进,并夺取了世界上最重要的海上咽喉之一曼德海峡的控制权。曼德布连接红海和亚丁湾,是亚洲和地中海之间航运的南门户。今年,随着霍尔木兹海峡因与伊朗的冲突而实际关闭,其重要性急剧增加。据海湾和也门官员称,沙特官员正在考虑两种主要选择。
A central objective is to reverse the Houthis’ rapid gains last month, when they pushed down Yemen’s coast and seized control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints. Bab el-Mandeb connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and serves as the southern gateway for shipping between Asia and the Mediterranean. Its importance has increased sharply this year as the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed by the conflict with Iran. Saudi officials are considering two main options, according to Gulf and Yemeni officials.
人们将集中进攻围绕巴布·曼德布。另一个是将沿海行动与同时在Al-Bayda、Marib、Taiz和Al-Jawf的攻击结合起来。西方外交官和一名海湾官员说,利雅得已经得出结论,与胡塞武装重新进行和平谈判是不可行的,因为该组织控制着曼德巴及其随之而来的战略影响力。确切的时间尚不清楚。消息人士给出了从一周内到11月初美国中期选举后的估计。
One would concentrate the offensive around Bab el-Mandeb. The other would combine that coastal operation with simultaneous attacks in Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf. Riyadh has concluded that renewed peace negotiations with the Houthis are not viable while the group controls Bab el-Mandeb and the strategic leverage that comes with it, Western diplomats and a Gulf official said. The precise timing remains unclear. Sources gave estimates ranging from within a week to after the US midterm elections in early November.
前美国驻沙特阿拉伯大使迈克尔·拉特尼(Michael Ratney)表示,他预计任何行动都将比2015年沙特领导的干预行动范围小得多。拉特尼说:“尽管他们想彻底击败胡塞武装,但他们也需要在胡塞武装控制曼德卜沿岸地区之前恢复原状。”
Michael Ratney, a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said he expected any operation to be considerably narrower than the Saudi-led intervention launched in 2015. “As much they want to vanquish the Houthis completely, they also need to get back to status quo ante before Houthis controlled territory along Bab el-Mandeb,” Ratney said.
“理想情况下,夺回沿海地区并恢复正常海上交通的行动相当有限。”一位西方外交官表示,美国情报部门、土耳其无人机和巴基斯坦的支持华盛顿已经在提供军事顾问和情报,包括瞄准信息,以支持沙特在也门的空中行动。然而,预计美国不会直接参与战斗。路透社此前报道称,唐纳德·特朗普总统拒绝了沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼的直接军事支持请求,包括美国空袭。
“Ideally, it would be a fairly limited operation to retake coastal areas and get back to normal maritime traffic.”US intelligence, Turkish drones and Pakistani support Washington is already providing military advisers and intelligence, including targeting information, to support Saudi air operations in Yemen, according to a Western diplomat. Direct U.S. combat involvement, however, is not expected. Reuters previously reported that President Donald Trump rejected requests from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for direct military support including U.S. airstrikes.
巴基斯坦和地区官员表示,土耳其和巴基斯坦还提供了沙特阿拉伯在也门使用的军事装备。据一名巴基斯坦官员称,巴基斯坦上个月向也门沙特支持的政府所在地亚丁派遣了四架载有防空系统、轻型火炮、无人机和反无人机系统等装备的货机。官员称,巴基斯坦军事顾问也与沙特同行一起行动,支持也门军队,而利雅得之前购买的土耳其无人机已部署在也门上空。
Turkey and Pakistan have also supplied military equipment used by Saudi Arabia in Yemen, Pakistani and regional officials said. Pakistan last month sent four cargo aircraft carrying equipment including air-defense systems, light artillery, drones and counter-drone systems to Aden, the seat of Yemen’s Saudi-backed government, according to a Pakistani official. Pakistani military advisers are also operating alongside Saudi counterparts in support of Yemeni forces, while Turkish drones previously purchased by Riyadh have been deployed over Yemen, officials said.
沙特阿拉伯特别担心在竞选期间保护其石油基础设施和其他战略地点免受胡塞武装导弹和无人机的袭击,并寻求多个盟友的防御支持。据一名巴基斯坦官员称,巴基斯坦已向沙特阿拉伯部署了3万至4万名士兵,以帮助保护该国边境并协助拦截导弹和无人机。这位官员表示,伊斯兰堡尚未决定派遣军队进入也门开展作战行动。
Saudi Arabia is particularly concerned about protecting its oil infrastructure and other strategic sites from Houthi missile and drone attacks during the campaign and has sought defensive support from several allies. Pakistan has deployed between 30,000 and 40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia to help protect the kingdom’s borders and assist with missile and drone interceptions, according to a Pakistani official. Islamabad has not decided to send troops into Yemen for combat operations, the official said.
与此同时,法国宣布计划向沙特阿拉伯部署防御系统和军队,以帮助保护红海港口城市延布。支离破碎的反胡塞武装任何地面进攻都将严重依赖于沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国在内战早期阶段武装和训练的不同也门派系。
France has meanwhile announced plans to deploy defensive systems and troops to Saudi Arabia to help protect the Red Sea port city of Yanbu. Fractured anti-Houthi forces Any ground offensive would depend heavily on the disparate Yemeni factions armed and trained by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates during earlier stages of the civil war.
分析人士表示,这些部队仍然分裂,可能难以维持针对胡塞武装的大规模行动。也门分析师穆罕默德·阿尔巴沙表示:“许多反胡塞武装仍然没有组织起来,也没有准备好进行击退纪律严明的胡塞武装部队所需的持续进攻。”去年冬天,阿联酋支持的南部部队试图夺取也门东部领土并寻求分裂,但被沙特支持的部队击败,也门各派在冲突中进一步削弱。
Analysts say those forces remain divided and may struggle to sustain a major campaign against the Houthis. “Many anti-Houthi forces are still not organised or prepared for the kind of sustained offensive required to push back a disciplined Houthi military force,” Yemen analyst Mohammed Albasha said. Yemeni factions were further weakened by clashes last winter after UAE-backed southern forces attempted to seize territory in eastern Yemen and pursue secession, only to be defeated by Saudi-backed forces.
接近政府想法的沙特政治分析师阿里·希兰表示,利雅得的军队迄今为止一直专注于稳定前线,但正准备转向进攻。他说:“到目前为止的首要任务是保卫地面阵地并稳定前线,但他们肯定会发起进攻。”“成功在很大程度上取决于当地部队的表现质量。”
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi political analyst close to government thinking, said Riyadh’s forces had so far focused on stabilizing the front but were preparing to shift to the offensive. “The priority so far has been to defend the positions on the ground and stabilize the front, but certainly they will be going on the offensive,” he said. “Success greatly depends on the quality of the performance of the local forces.”