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沙特计划对胡塞武装发动攻势以打破红海封锁Saudis plan assault on Houthis to break Red Sea chokehold

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地区和西方官员告诉路透社,沙特阿拉伯正在计划对伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装分子发动进攻,并正在考虑选择,包括沿海推进以确保红海航线的安全,或在多条战线上发动攻击。

Saudi Arabia is planning an offensive against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, with options being considered, including a coastal push to secure the Red Sea shipping route or an assault on multiple fronts, regional and Western officials told Reuters.

据六名了解准备情况的人士称,此次行动预计将在未来几周内启动,将由也门地面部队领导,由利雅得监督,并得到沙特空袭的支持。

The operation, expected to be launched in the coming weeks, will be led by Yemeni forces on the ground, which are overseen by Riyadh, and supported by Saudi air strikes, according to six people with knowledge of the preparations.

要求匿名讨论安全问题的人士表示,虽然美国已经在提供情报支持利雅得在也门的行动,一些地区和欧洲国家主要向也门提供防御性军事援助,但沙特盟友预计不会在战斗行动中发挥直接作用。

While the US is already providing intelligence to support Riyadh’s operations in Yemen, and some regional and European nations are providing mainly defensive military aid to the kingdom, the Saudi allies aren’t expected to play a direct role in combat operations, said the people who requested anonymity to discuss security matters.

2015年,沙特阿拉伯领导阿拉伯联盟加入邻国也门内战,以支持国际公认的政府,胡塞武装已将其赶出首都萨那。交战双方于2022年达成的休战协议基本上一直持续到今年,当时胡塞武装在伊朗战争的余波中对沙特航运和石油基础设施发动了导弹和无人机袭击。

Saudi Arabia entered neighboring Yemen’s civil war in 2015 at the head of an Arab coalition in support of the internationally recognized government, which the Houthis had driven out of the capital Sanaa. A truce agreed between the warring parties in 2022 largely held until this year, when the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks on Saudi shipping and oil infrastructure in a spillover from the Iran war.

据了解该计划的人士透露,沙特计划中的进攻(此前尚未报道)的一个关键目标是扭转胡塞武装上个月沿着海岸推进并夺取了对曼德海峡的控制权时取得的迅速进展,其中包括海湾和也门官员以及西方外交官。

A key objective of the planned Saudi offensive, which hasn’t been previously reported, is aimed at reversing the rapid gains made by the Houthis last month when they advanced down the coast and seized control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, according to people with knowledge of the plans who include Gulf and Yemeni officials and Western diplomats.

海湾和也门官员表示,沙特正在考虑两种攻击选择:要么在巴布曼德布周围进行狭隘的攻击,要么在也门周围的多条战线上进行更广泛的进攻,包括在贝达省、马里布省、塔伊兹省和乔夫省进行同步攻击。

The Saudis are considering two options for the assault, the Gulf and Yemeni officials said: either a narrowly focused attack around Bab el-Mandeb or a broader offensive that also includes synchronized attacks on multiple fronts around Yemen, in the governorates of Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf.

官员们都表示,根据规模不同,可能会动员超过10万也门军队参与进攻。

More than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilized in the offensive, depending on the scale, the officials all said.

沙特和也门政府、胡塞组织和美国军方的发言人没有立即回应对沙特计划发表评论的请求。

Spokespeople for the Saudi and Yemeni governments, the Houthi group and the US military didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment about the Saudi plans.

曼德布是红海的南部出口通道,红海是地中海和亚洲之间的重要航线,今年作为霍尔木兹海峡的替代方案变得更加重要,霍尔木兹海峡已因伊朗冲突而有效关闭。

Bab el-Mandeb is the southern exit passage of the Red Sea, a key shipping route between the Mediterranean and Asia that’s assumed even more importance this year as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed by the Iran conflict.

这位西方外交官和海湾官员表示,利雅得已经得出结论,在武装分子仍控制着曼德布的情况下,它无法与胡塞武装进行新的也门和平谈判,这赋予了他们重要的全球影响力。

Riyadh has concluded it cannot enter new Yemeni peace negotiations with the Houthis while the militants remain in control of Bab el-Mandeb, giving them significant global leverage, the Western diplomats and Gulf official said.

六名了解沙特准备情况的人士无法给出发动攻势的准确时间,他们的估计范围从一周内到11月初美国中期选举之后。

The six people with knowledge of the Saudi preparations couldn’t give a precise timing for the launch of the offensive, with their estimates ranging from within a week to after the US midterm elections in early November.

美国前驻沙特阿拉伯大使迈克尔·拉特尼(Michael Ratney)表示,他预计这次进攻的重点将很窄,而且范围肯定比2015年沙特领导的旨在击溃武装分子的行动更加温和。

Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said he expected an offensive to be narrowly focused and certainly more modest in scope than the Saudi-led operation in 2015 that sought to rout the militants.

他补充说:“尽管他们想彻底击败胡塞武装,但他们也需要回到胡塞武装控制巴布曼德布沿线领土之前的现状。”“理想情况下,夺回沿海地区并恢复正常海上交通的行动相当有限。”自从以色列在过去三年里削弱黎巴嫩真主党以来,胡塞武装已经成为伊朗在中东最强大的盟友。

“As much [as] they want to vanquish the Houthis completely, they also need to get back to status quo ante before Houthis controlled territory along Bab el-Mandeb,” he added. “Ideally, it would be a fairly limited operation to retake coastal areas and get back to normal maritime traffic.”The Houthis have become Iran’s most formidable ally in the Middle East since Israel’s degradation of Hezbollah in Lebanon over the past three years.

沙特针对该组织的攻势将标志着自2023年10月7日哈马斯领导的对以色列的袭击以及随后的美国-以色列对伊朗的战争以来,该地区被冲突所吞没的新的爆发点。

A Saudi-directed offensive against the group would mark a new flashpoint in a region engulfed by conflict since the Hamas-led attacks on Israel of Oct. 7, 2023, and the subsequent US-Israeli war on Iran.

特朗普、土耳其和巴基斯坦据一位西方外交官称,沙特阿拉伯最强大的盟友华盛顿正在提供军事顾问和情报,包括瞄准信息,以支持沙特在也门的空中行动。

TRUMP, TURKEY AND PAKISTAN Washington, Saudi Arabia’s most powerful ally, is providing military advisers and intelligence, including targeting information, to support Saudi air operations in Yemen, according to one of the Western diplomats.

不过,支持的程度可能有限。路透社此前报道称,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普拒绝了沙特事实上的统治者穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼提出的空袭等直接军事支持请求。

However, the extent of support may be limited. Reuters has previously reported that US President Donald Trump rebuffed requests by the de facto Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman for direct military support such as air strikes.

巴基斯坦和地区官员表示,土耳其和巴基斯坦已提供沙特正在也门使用的军事装备。上个月,沙特阿拉伯与土耳其和巴基斯坦签署了联合防御协议。

Turkey and Pakistan, with whom Saudi Arabia signed a joint defense agreement last month, have provided military equipment that the kingdom is using in Yemen, Pakistani and regional officials said.

一名巴基斯坦政府官员表示,上个月,巴基斯坦向沙特支持的也门政府所在地亚丁派遣了四架载有防空系统、轻型火炮、无人机和反无人机系统等装备的货机。

Last month, Pakistan sent four cargo planes with equipment including air defense systems, light artillery, drones and anti-drone systems to Aden, the seat of Yemen’s Saudi-backed government, a Pakistani government official said.

据另一位巴基斯坦官员、海湾官员和一名西方外交官称,巴基斯坦军事顾问也与沙特同行一起在实地支持也门军队。他们补充说,沙特阿拉伯在当前战争前购买的土耳其无人机也部署在也门上空。

Pakistani military advisers are also on the ground with Saudi counterparts to support Yemeni forces, according to a second Pakistani official, the Gulf official and a Western diplomat. Turkish drones, bought by Saudi Arabia before the current war, have also been deployed over Yemen, they added.

该地区官员表示,沙特在也门发动新一轮攻势时的主要担忧之一是如何保护其石油设施和其他基础设施免受胡塞武装无人机和导弹袭击,他们表示,利雅得已向几个盟友寻求防御系统方面的帮助。

One of the kingdom’s key concerns in launching a new offensive in Yemen is how to protect its oil facilities and other infrastructure from Houthi drone and missile attacks, according to regional officials who said Riyadh has asked several allies for help with defensive systems.

据第二位巴基斯坦官员说,巴基斯坦已向沙特阿拉伯部署了3万至4万名士兵,以帮助保卫该国的陆地边界,并帮助拦截无人机和导弹。这位官员说,伊斯兰堡还没有做出任何派遣军队进入也门作战的决定。

Pakistan has deployed between 30,000 and 40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia to help defend the kingdom’s land borders and help with drone and missile interceptions, according to the second Pakistani official, who said the troops arrived in waves beginning last year but also after the recent escalation. Islamabad hasn’t made any decision to send troops into Yemen in a fighting capacity, the official said.

巴基斯坦和土耳其国防部没有回应记者的置评请求,就两国对利雅得的军事支持发表评论。

The Pakistani and Turkish defense ministries didn’t respond to requests for comment on their military support for Riyadh.

与此同时,法国宣布将向沙特阿拉伯派遣防御系统和军队,以帮助保护红海港口城市延布。

France, meanwhile, has announced it will send defensive systems and troops to Saudi Arabia to help protect the Red Sea port city of Yanbu.

也门境内的任何地面行动都将依赖于也门战斗派别的不同联盟,沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国在内战早期阶段冲突陷入血腥僵局时提供了武装和训练。

Any ground operation inside Yemen will rely on the disparate coalition of Yemeni fighting factions that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates armed and trained at earlier stages of the civil war when the conflict ground to a bloody stalemate.

“许多反胡塞武装仍然没有组织起来或准备好进行击退纪律严明的胡塞武装部队所需的持续进攻。他们现在正在接受考验,胡塞武装同时向多个战线施加压力,”也门分析师穆罕默德·阿尔巴沙说。

“Many anti-Houthi forces are still not organized or prepared for the kind of sustained offensive required to push back a disciplined Houthi military force. And they are being tested right now, as the Houthis apply pressure across several fronts at once,” said Yemen analyst Mohammed Albasha.

去年冬天,当阿联酋支持的南部武装分子试图占领东部领土并宣布分裂计划时,也门军队进一步分裂,导致他们在一系列冲突后被沙特支持的武装分子击败。

Yemeni forces were further fractured last winter when southern fighters backed by the UAE tried to take territory in the east and announce secession plans, leading to their defeat by Saudi-backed fighters after a series of clashes.

接近政府想法的沙特政治分析师阿里·希兰警告说,沙特对胡塞武装的任何进攻的结果都将取决于地面部队的表现。

Ali Shihabi, a Saudi political analyst close to government thinking, cautioned that the outcome of any offensive by the Saudis against the Houthis would depend on how ground forces perform.

他说:“到目前为止的首要任务是保卫地面阵地并稳定前线,但他们肯定会发起进攻。”“成功在很大程度上取决于当地部队的表现质量。”

“The priority so far has been to defend the positions on the ground and stabilize the front, but certainly they will be going on the offensive,” he said. “Success greatly depends on the quality of the performance of the local forces.”