任何走过缅因州崎岖海岸或在其山区滑雪的人都知道，缅因州的风可以很大。
Anyone who's walked its rugged coast or skied in its mountains knows Maine can get windy.
不过，眼下缅因州的联邦参议员选举似乎在某种程度上不受全国政治风向影响——尽管全国政治风向总体上似乎有利于民主党——至少这种隔绝程度足以让现任共和党联邦参议员苏珊·科林斯与民主党人特洛伊·杰克逊在一个整体选民倾向民主党的州里战成平手。
But right now Maine's Senate race seems a bit insulated from the national political winds — which otherwise seem to favor the Democrats — at least enough to keep incumbent Republican Susan Collins in a tied race with Democrat Troy Jackson in a state that otherwise has a Democratic-leaning electorate. Collins is drawing enough voters and enough of Maine's Democrats, while she is bolstered by those who say they're voting more on state matters than national ones, to keep the race at a tie.
科林斯获得了足够多的选民和缅因州民主党人的支持，同时还得到那些表示自己投票时更多考虑州内事务而非全国事务的人的助力，因此比赛保持平局。
And she has an edge on who would bring back more federal funds to Maine. Jackson's challenge is that Collins peels off one in five voters who disapprove of Trump — a rate higher than what Republican congressional candidates get nationally.
而且，在谁能为缅因州争取回更多联邦资金这一点上，她占据优势。
Jackson's backing, in turn, is driven by those who think Collins is too much in agreement with President Trump, as well as by voters specifically opposed to tariffs, by those trying to give national Democrats control of the Senate and by those prioritizing change over experience.
杰克逊面临的挑战是，科林斯从反对特朗普的选民中争取走了五分之一——这一比例高于共和党国会议员候选人在全国范围内能从反对特朗普者中争取到的比例。
A sizable 10% of voters say they could still change their minds — another dynamic that underscores that this could still break either way. Even when voters think Jackson's policies would make them financially better off, Collins gets almost one in five of those voters, too.
反过来，杰克逊的支持来自那些认为科林斯在太多方面赞同特朗普总统的人，也来自特别反对关税的选民、希望让民主党掌控参议院的人，以及把改变置于经验之上的人。
Overall, Maine's voters do feel Trump's policies have hurt the Maine economy. Jackson wins most of those who do. But long-time service isn't entirely working against Collins, even if it's an "anti-incumbent" year: Collins does especially well among voters who say they've voted for her multiple times in the past.
足足10%的选民表示仍可能改变主意——这一变数再次表明，选情仍可能倒向任何一方。
Jackson may be feeling the effects of the primary season: four in 10 Democrats and most independents wish someone else were the Democratic nominee.
杰克逊还落后于民主党州长候选人汉娜·平里，因为平里在州长竞选中的领先优势与该州的整体党派倾向更加密切。（卡马拉·哈里斯赢得了该州。）平里得到了一些平分选票的选民支持柯林斯。
Jackson also runs behind the Democrats' gubernatorial nominee Hannah Pingree, as Pingree's lead in the governor's race hews much more closely to the state's overall partisan lean. (Kamala Harris won the state.) Pingree gets some of the voters who are splitting their tickets to back Collins.
CBS News/YouGov的这项调查是在2026年9月23日至10月1日期间对缅因州1，114名选民进行了代表性样本进行的。该样本根据美国人口普查数据以及2024年总统选举的性别、年龄、种族和教育程度进行加权。选民的误差幅度为± 4.7个百分点。
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 1,114ed voters in Maine interviewed between September 23rd -October 1, 2026. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race and education based on U.S. Census data, as well as to 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error is ± 4.7 points fored voters.