
新闻:在移民执法导致的死亡事件引发两党议员纷纷呼吁克里斯蒂·诺姆辞职之际,参议员苏珊·柯林斯私下游说她遏制缅因州出现的相关乱象。当商务部取消对缅因州顶尖大学的海洋研究资助时,柯林斯又致电商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克,力求恢复这笔资助。
The News When immigration enforcement deaths sparked bipartisan calls for Kristi Noem’s resignation, Sen. Susan Collins privately lobbied her to stop the surge in Maine. When the Commerce Department cut off sea grants for Maine’s flagship university, Collins called Secretary Howard Lutnick to save them.
而当唐纳德·特朗普总统对加拿大加征新关税时,柯林斯又私下与美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔协商,争取让混凝土与道路用盐免受关税影响——后者在缅因州漫长的冬季里属于至关重要的物资。
And when President Donald Trump hit Canada with new tariffs, Collins negotiated on the side with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to exempt concrete and road salt — the latter a critical commodity during Maine’s long winters.
今年秋季,在其他几个关键州的参议院选举中,选民们需要在好斗的民主党人与亲特朗普的共和党人之间做出选择。而在缅因州,对决双方正是这类民主党人——前州议会领袖特洛伊·杰克逊,以及与柯林斯同属共和党却风格迥异的候选人:她是现任参议院共和党议员中唯一一位敢于公开批评特朗普、同时又能凭借个人人脉影响力扭转部分特朗普政策的人。
In other battleground Senate races this fall, voters must choose between a combative Democrat and a Trump-friendly Republican. Maine’s battle pits that type of Democrat, former statehouse leader Troy Jackson, against a rarer breed in Collins: She’s the only incumbent Senate Republican who criticizes Trump in public while using her personal connections to reverse some of his actions.
目前尚不清楚柯林斯的这些私下斡旋举措是否足以赢得缅因州反特朗普选民的支持——至少能否获得足够多的选票助她再度胜选尚不可知。不过,周二晚间杰克逊与柯林斯将开启一系列参议院辩论,届时她的这一政治策略也将成为全国瞩目的焦点。
It’s not clear whether Collins’ backchanneling will be enough to satisfy anti-Trump voters in Maine — or at least enough of them to put her over the top yet again. But her strategy will become a national political story on Tuesday night, when Jackson and Collins kick off a series of Senate debates.
在10月竞选季开始前,柯林斯向《Semafor》表示,她的“挑战在于让缅因州民众了解自己为撤销特朗普政府的部分决策所做出的努力”。她还指出,若杰克逊胜选,缅因州将失去她与特朗普内阁的直接沟通渠道,也就无法再获得实实在在的政策利好。
Collins told Semafor ahead of the October campaign season that her “challenge is making sure that Mainers know what I’ve done” in unwinding some of the Trump administration’s decisions. She said Maine would lose her direct line to the Trump Cabinet if Jackson wins — and thus get robbed of tangible victories.
“采取那种对抗性的方式很难取得成效,而我却取得了成果,”柯林斯在接受采访时说道,她指的是自己与诺姆进行的私下交谈。“如果换作特洛伊·杰克逊,他肯定会大发雷霆,但绝不会直接联系诺姆。”北达科他州共和党参议员凯文·克雷默表示,尽管柯林斯时常与特朗普政府唱反调,但特朗普大体上并未为难她,“基本上对她网开一面,甚至还对她表示赞赏。”
“When you take that kind of adversarial approach, you’re unlikely to get the results, and I got results,” Collins said in an interview, referring to her quiet talks with Noem. “The Troy Jackson approach would be to rant and rave about it, but never contact [her] directly.”Despite Collins’ frequent breaks from his administration, Trump has largely laid off her and “by and large has given her a pass and even been complimentary of her,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D.
然而,特朗普并未让柯林斯轻易重现以往在这个倾向于民主党的州赢得选举的壮举:近几周来,他试图接管美国国立卫生研究院的拨款项目,撤销国会批准的支出计划,还屡次与与缅因州接壤数百英里的加拿大发生摩擦。
Yet he hasn’t made it easy for her to repeat her past odds-defying wins in a blue state: In recent weeks he’s sought to take over National Institute of Health grants and rescinded congressionally approved spending while repeatedly antagonizing Canada, which shares hundreds of miles of border with Maine.
“他让缅因州的普通家庭、企业和社区都举步维艰。显然,他根本没考虑这些行为会对他们以及我产生什么影响,”柯林斯说道。“我算不上总统的关注对象,这么说应该不过分。但那些劳动家庭、小企业和社区才理应受到关注。”当被要求回应柯林斯的言论时,一位白宫官员列举了特朗普在缅因州取得的“无数政绩”,包括凶杀案数量下降以及推行减税法案——而柯林斯曾反对这项法案。
“He’s making the lives of Maine families difficult, and Maine’s businesses and Maine’s communities difficult. And obviously, he’s not thinking about the implications for them or for me,” Collins said. “I’m not a focus for the president. I think that’s probably fair to say. But working families and small businesses and communities ought to be.”Asked to respond to Collins’ comment, a White House official touted Trump’s “countless wins” in Maine, including a reduction in homicides and his tax cut law — which Collins opposed.
补充信息:2020年,尽管数月来民调显示柯林斯落后于民主党候选人萨拉·吉迪恩,但她仍轻松赢得了选举。六年后的今天,缅因州选民对特朗普早已心生厌烦,但民调仍显示这场选举胜负难料。此次选举中,民主党因原候选人格雷厄姆·普拉特纳身陷性侵指控而被迫换人,由特洛伊·杰克逊取而代之,党内分歧也为柯林斯创造了有利条件。
Know More Collins handily won her race in 2020 despite trailing in the polls for months to Democrat Sara Gideon. Six years later, the Maine electorate is worn out by Trump, but polls still show the race as a tossup. Collins benefited from Democratic discord as the party jettisoned its original nominee Graham Platner over sexual assault allegations, replacing him with Jackson.
民主党方面试图击败柯林斯的努力仍在继续。如今,该党正斥资数百万美元投放广告,利用《ProPublica》的一篇报道来抨击柯林斯——该报道揭露了她与一家存在腐败行为的国防承包商的关联。广告中声称,在联邦调查局对此事的调查最终不了了之后,“或许这就是苏珊·柯林斯总是对唐纳德·特朗普言听计从的原因”。向来举止温文尔雅的柯林斯对这种攻击性言论反应激烈。
The national Democratic effort to defeat Collins kept going; now the party is spending millions on an ad hitting her for a ProPublica story about her links to a corrupt defense contractor. The ad alleges that, after an FBI investigation into the matter was dropped, that “maybe there’s a reason Susan Collins does whatever Donald Trump wants her to.”The typically genteel Collins has a volcanic response to that line of attack.
“任何了解我或曾与我共事过的人都知道我是个品行端正的人,正因如此我才如此愤怒,”她说道,“这显然是企图让缅因州的民众误以为我并非真实的自己。”即便有《ProPublica》的报道为证,民主党仍致力于将这场竞选变成一场对特朗普的全民公投——进而也把焦点放在柯林斯与特朗普政府之间复杂的关系上。
“Anyone who knows me or has worked with me knows that I am a person of integrity, and that’s why I’m so offended,” she said. “It is clearly an attempt to try to persuade the people of Maine that I’m not who I am.”And even with the ProPublica report, Democrats are focused on turning the race into a referendum on Trump — and, by extension, Collins’ complicated relationship with his administration.
“如果一名议员96%的时间都与特朗普站在同一立场,那她很难再去反对特朗普,”参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默对Semafor说道,“柯林斯一直支持特朗普,对于他做的诸多不当之举也从不加以反对。”柯林斯则辩称自己的行事风格始终如一:她既支持过两党总统提名的重要人选,也反对过两党的一些举措,从未完全追随共和党的整体议程。过去,这种做法在两党中都有不少参议员践行;如今,对一名共和党人而言,这样的立场就显得有些“另类”了。
“It’s hard to push back against Trump when you vote with him 96 percent of the time,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told Semafor. “She has backed Trump and refused to go against so many of the bad things he’s done.”Collins argues that her approach is consistent: She’s supported major nominees of presidents in both parties, opposed some moves made by both parties, and never aligned neatly with the GOP agenda. That assessment used to apply to quite a few senators in both parties. Now it’s a strange place for a Republican to be.
在2021年国会山骚乱后支持对特朗普进行弹劾的两院17名共和党人中,柯林斯是仅有的仍在国会任职的5人之一。她的亲密盟友之一、同为特朗普批评者的阿拉斯加州共和党参议员丽莎·穆尔科斯基指出,一味地反对未必能带来好结果。
Of the 17 Republicans in both chambers who supported impeaching Trump after the 2021 Capitol riot, Collins is one of only five still in Congress. Another of them, one of her closest allies, said that blanket opposition isn’t always productive.
“这正是人们没弄明白的地方。有时候他们只希望你‘拼命抗争’,可转头又会问‘你为我做了什么?’苏珊正在努力兼顾这两方面,”穆尔科斯基说道。
“That’s what people don’t get. Sometimes they just want you to ‘fight fight fight.’ Then on the other hand they say, ‘What have you done for me?’ And Susan is trying to deliver on both counts,” said Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, a fellow Trump critic.
存在分歧的空间:柯林斯曾在多达六项重大议题上与特朗普持相反立场,还多次在幕后努力缓和特朗普的激进举措。但在她的对手看来,这些不过是表面功夫罢了。
Room for Disagreement Collins has opposed Trump on upwards of a half-dozen major initiatives and worked behind the scenes to temper him on multiple other occasions. To her opponent, that’s window dressing.
“缅因州的选民并不傻,他们看得出苏珊·柯林斯在玩什么把戏,”杰克逊的发言人丹·戈特利布说道,“在关键时刻,她都站在特朗普一边:支持任命推翻 Roe v. Wade 裁决的大法官、为移民与海关执法局追加数十亿美元拨款,还推动削减医疗补助计划开支的同时给富人提供巨额减税优惠。”参议院民主党人深知柯林斯有望胜选并继续掌控拨款委员会大权,因此鲜有人公开抨击她。在他们看来,保住这个席位对于组建一个更坚决反对特朗普的多数派阵营至关重要。
“Maine voters aren’t stupid, and they see the game Susan Collins is playing,” said Jackson spokesperson Dan Gottlieb. “In the moments when it mattered, she sided with Trump to confirm the justices who overturned , give ICE billions more in funding, and advance legislation that cuts Medicaid while delivering massive tax breaks to the wealthy.”Senate Democrats know Collins could win and continue to wield power atop the Appropriations Committee, so few are taking open shots at her. They still see her seat as crucial to establishing a more pugnacious anti-Trump majority.
“我并不质疑她的办事能力。我只想说,即便民主党已占据多数席位——而且这一状态已持续两年之久——他们也未能阻止特朗普的各项举措,”与柯林斯共同负责拨款事务的华盛顿州民主党参议员帕蒂·默里说道。
“I’m not questioning her effectiveness. I’m just telling you, when they have the majority — and they have had the majority for two years — they have not stopped his actions,” said Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., who runs appropriations with Collins.
伯吉斯的观点:先抛开关于这场竞选的所有既有认知吧。核心问题只有两个:特朗普能否拖垮柯林斯?柯林斯与特朗普保持距离这一点对缅因州选民而言是否重要?
Burgess’s view Forget everything else you know about this race. The fundamental questions are whether Trump will sink Collins, and whether her distance from him matters to Mainers.
显然,她的策略在某种程度上奏效了。民调显示,她的支持率大幅领先于共和党州长候选人博比·查尔斯,这说明相当一部分选民打算同时把票投给她以及民主党州长候选人汉娜·平格里。
Clearly her approach is working to some extent. The polls show her running well ahead of Republican gubernatorial candidate Bobby Charles, so clearly some percentage of voters are planning to split their tickets for her and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Hannah Pingree.
要想抵消特朗普不受欢迎带来的负面影响,她必须尽可能争取更多独立选民的支持。不妨看看乔恩·泰斯特和科里·加德纳——这两位前参议员所在的州民众对共和党的观感极差,导致他们最终落选。值得一提的是,柯林斯与杰克逊将进行四次辩论。
She’ll need every independent voter she can lasso into her tent to overcome Trump’s unpopularity. Just ask Jon Tester and Cory Gardner, two former senators whose states’ view of the national party made it impossible for them to win. Notable Collins and Jackson will debate four times.