里加10月3日电——拉脱维亚星期六将举行议会选举。此次选举很可能使亲乌克兰的首相安德里斯·库尔贝格斯继续执政，但严重的政治分裂可能给组阁带来困难。
RIGA, Oct 3 - Latvians vote in a parliamentary election on Saturday that is likely to keep power in the hands of pro-Ukrainian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, although deep political fragmentation may complicate the formation of a government.
在波罗的海地区，包括作为北约和欧盟成员的拉脱维亚，许多选民因官方警告俄罗斯可能发动侵略，以及与莫斯科对乌克兰战争有关的领空侵犯事件日益增多而感到不安。
Across the Baltics, including in NATO and European Union member Latvia, many voters are on edge after official warnings of potential Russia aggression and a growing number of airspace incursions related to Moscow's war in Ukraine.
俄罗斯称有关其计划袭击北约的指控毫无根据，西方官员则表示，俄罗斯无力发动直接攻击，但安全担忧对此次选举活动产生了重大影响。
Russia says accusations that it is planning to attack NATO are baseless and Western officials say it is not capable of launching a direct assault, but security concerns have weighed heavily in the election campaign.
民调显示，库尔贝格斯的中间派“统一名单”以约14%的得票率领先，但紧随其后的是公开亲俄的“主权力量”。
Opinion polls put Kulbergs' centrist United List ahead, with about 14% of votes, but followed closely by the overtly pro-Russian Sovereign Power.
47岁的库尔贝格斯是一名商人和业余拉力赛车手。今年5月，上一届联合政府因处理多起军事无人机偏离航线、未经察觉便飞入拉脱维亚的事件不力而垮台后，他上台执政。尽管这些无人机属于乌克兰，但官员指责俄罗斯导致它们偏离原定航线。
A businessman and amateur rally driver, Kulbergs, 47, came to power in May after the previous coalition crumbled over its handling of incidents in which stray military drones flew undetected into Latvia. Though the drones were Ukrainian, officials have blamed Russia for causing them to divert from their flight paths.
“我必须现在向乌克兰提供一切必要支持，使其占据上风并取得胜利。”库尔贝格斯上月接受路透社采访时说。
"We have to give Ukraine everything necessary right now (so) that they can have the upper hand and win", Kulbergs told Reuters in an interview last month.
在竞选期间，他还承诺提升拉脱维亚的反无人机能力，并将国防开支维持在国内生产总值的5%，达到北约最高水平之一。
Throughout his campaign, he has also promised more anti-drone capabilities for Latvia and to maintain defence spending at 5% of gross domestic product, one of the highest levels in NATO.
但他的亲克里姆林宫对手认为，拉脱维亚应停止向乌克兰提供任何援助，转而更加关注生活成本问题，尤其是该国俄语少数族裔面临的生活压力。
But his pro-Kremlin rivals say Latvia should stop any aid to Ukraine and should instead focus more on cost-of-living issues, particularly among his country's Russian-speaking minority.
“我们的选民希望实现和平，不再四处寻找避难所，也不用再经历空袭警报。”该党领导人尤利娅·斯捷潘年科告诉路透社，“不得以任何方式助长战争，包括为战争提供资金……乌克兰必须获胜，但应通过和平谈判实现。”
"Our voters want peace, to stop looking for shelters, to no longer experience the air alerts", party leader Julia Stepanenko told Reuters. "The war must not be encouraged in any way, including by financing it... Ukraine must win, but through peace talks".
投票将于周六上午8点（格林尼治时间05:00）开始，晚上8点结束。首批结果预计将在数小时内出炉，最终结果可能要到午夜后才会明朗。拉脱维亚议会的100名议员将接受选举，任期四年。
Polls open at 8 a.m. (0500 GMT) on Saturday and close at 8 p.m., with the first results expected within hours and the final result likely to be clear after midnight. The 100 members of the Saeima, or parliament, are being elected for a four-year term.
分裂的国家 民意调查显示，至少还有两个政党可能进入议会——采取民粹主义、“MAGA”风格的拉脱维亚优先党集团，以及吸引年轻选民的左倾政党进步党。
DIVIDED NATION Surveys show at least two other parties may make it into parliament - the populist, MAGA-style Latvia First grouping and the Progressives, a left-leaning party that attracts younger voters.
库尔贝格能否建立一个有效运转的联盟，在很大程度上取决于他所在的政党能获得多少选票，以及有多少其他政党得票率跨过进入议会所需的5%门槛。
Kulbergs' ability to forge a working coalition will depend largely on how many votes they receive and how many other parties cross the 5% threshhold to enter parliament.
他可能还需要与拉脱维亚优先党领导人、商人阿伊纳尔斯·斯莱瑟斯拼凑出一项协议。后者近几个月似乎转向了更为反乌克兰的立场，同时争取双方阵营的选票。
He might also need to cobble together a deal with Latvia First leader, businessman Ainars Slesers, who appears to have shifted towards a more anti-Ukraine stance in recent months, courting votes on both sides.
“他的意思是，（该党）谴责俄罗斯的入侵并支持乌克兰，但支持乌克兰需要以拉脱维亚经济为代价，”拉脱维亚战略与经济研究所研究员罗伯茨·基茨在一份说明中表示。
"His message is that (the party) condemns Russia's invasion and stands with Ukraine, but that supporting Ukraine comes at the expense of Latvia's economy," said Roberts Kits, researcher for the Latvian Strategy and Economic Research Institute, in a note.
拉脱维亚人口190万，西临波罗的海，北与欧盟和北约成员国爱沙尼亚接壤，南与立陶宛相连，东邻俄罗斯和白俄罗斯。
Latvia, with a population of 1.9 million, is sandwiched between the Baltic Sea, with EU and NATO allies Estonia and Lithuania to the north and south, and Russia and Belarus to the east.