拉脱维亚的议会选举于周六开始投票，此次选举的背景是人们对邻国俄罗斯的担忧以及日益严重的生活成本危机。作为北约东部防御阵线的关键支柱，拉脱维亚国内普遍支持在俄罗斯与乌克兰的冲突中向乌克兰提供援助。一位驻里加的西方外交官表示：“对俄罗斯的态度是拉脱维亚人倾向于与西方、北约及欧洲保持紧密联系的主要原因。”他还指出，很难想象该国的政治格局会发生重大变化。
Polls opened on Saturday in Latvia's parliamentary election shaped by concerns over neighbouring Russia and the cost of living crisis. The Baltic state is a key pillar of NATO's eastern defensive flank, and experts say there is widespread support for supporting Ukraine in the war with Russia." The stance towards Russia is the main reason for Latvians' Western, NATO and European anchoring," a Western diplomat in Riga , adding that it would be hard to imagine major political changes. Polls predict the centre-right United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, will emerge the largest party in parliament in Saturday's vote.
民调显示，由总理安德里斯·库尔贝格斯领导的中间偏右翼政党“联合名单”（United List）将在选举中成为议会中最大的政党。不过，这个由中间派政党“新团结”（New Unity）、民族主义政党“国家联盟”（National Alliance）以及“绿党与农民联盟”（Union of Greens and Farmers）组成的联盟预计在选举后实力会受到削弱。部分选举结果预计将在周六晚间公布，正式的最终结果将于周日出炉。
But his centre-right coalition, which also brings together the centrist New Unity, nationalist National Alliance and the Union of Greens and Farmers, is expected to emerge weakened from the election. Partial results are expected on Saturday evening, with preliminary official results due on Sunday. The current governing coalition is made up of United List, New Unity, the Union of Greens and Farmers, and the National Alliance. Polls suggest the bloc is unlikely to retain power in its current form after the vote.
由于拉脱维亚与俄罗斯接壤，且在20世纪大部分时间里都处于莫斯科的统治之下，安全问题一直是选民最关心的议题。据拉脱维亚智库LaSER的分析师罗伯茨·基茨（Roberts Kits）称：“国防与安全将是选民关注的重点。”他表示，除了少数反对意见外，大多数人普遍支持将国防开支维持在GDP的5%左右，并支持乌克兰。
Security at the top of voters' mindsSecurity is at the top of voters' minds in a country bordering Russia which was annexed and ruled by Moscow for much of the 20th century. According to Roberts Kits, an analyst at the Latvian think tank LaSER, "defence and security will be the priority".vApart from a few dissenting voices, he said, there is broad consensus on maintaining military spending at nearly five percent of GDP and on supporting Ukraine.
不过，经济问题也同样令选民感到担忧。尽管自2004年加入欧盟以来拉脱维亚的生活水平有所提高，但该国仍是三个波罗的海国家中经济最不发达的。目前，拉脱维亚的经济增长乏力，选民们主要关注生活成本、医疗体系的状况以及公共财政的困境。
But the economy is also a major concern for voters. Latvia is the least affluent of the three Baltic States in terms of living standards, despite catching up since joining the EU in 2004. Growth is sluggish, with voters pointing to the cost of living, the state of the healthcare system and the difficulties of public finances.
使问题更加复杂的是地区间的巨大差异。根据布鲁塞尔的一份报告，2024年里加周边地区的人均GDP达到了欧洲平均水平的101%；但在其他地区，这一比例却未超过50%。拉脱维亚东部地区的局势尤为紧张——该地区绝大多数居民使用俄语，且人口正在持续减少。
Complicating this are major regional disparities. Around Riga, GDP per capita reached 101 percent of the European average in 2024, according to a Brussels report. But in other regions this figure does not exceed 50 percent. The situation is particularly tense in the eastern region of Latgale, home to a large majority of Russian speakers and suffering from significant depopulation."
“最严重的问题是缺乏年轻人和优质的工作机会，”来自该国第二大城市道加夫皮尔斯的30岁居民艾加尔斯·索伊坎茨（Aigars Soikants）对法新社表示：“这里的工作机会太少，人们纷纷离开。”道加夫皮尔斯90%的居民使用俄语。他计划投票给“一个真正为国家利益服务的中间派或右翼政党”。
The most important thing is the lack of young people, the lack of good jobs," Aigars Soikants, 30, a resident of Daugavpils, the country's second-largest city, tells AFP." There isn't enough work (…) People are leaving," he says of the city, where 90 percent of the population is Russian-speaking.
民粹主义的崛起与欧洲其他地区一样，在选举前夕，经济问题推动了民粹主义政党的发展。
He says he plans to vote for "a centrist or right-wing party, which acts in the interest of the country".- Rise of populists -As elsewhere in Europe, economic concerns have given a boost to populist parties in the run-up to the election.
“主权力量党”（Suverena vara, SV）批评对乌克兰的援助以及不断增加的军事开支，其支持率达到了9%，有可能在议会选举中排名第二。该党被批评者视为亲俄势力；其领导人尤利娅·斯捷潘enko（Julija Stepanenko）强调拉脱维亚面临的经济困境。然而，该党在政治上处于孤立状态，除非出现意外情况，否则几乎没有机会加入未来的执政联盟。
The Sovereign Power (Suverena vara, SV) party, critical of aid to Ukraine and increased military spending, is polling at nine percent -- and could reach second place in Parliamennsidered pro-Russian by its critics, the party, led by Julija Stepanenko, emphasises Latvia's economic difficulties.
尤利娅·斯捷潘enko在讲话中刻意避免使用“乌克兰”这个词，她表示：“需要帮助的是我们，而不是其他国家。”
But the party is isolated politically and barring a huge upset has no chance of entering a future governing coalition.
另一个民粹主义政党“拉脱维亚优先”（Latvia First, LPV）的支持率也达到了9%；其领导人、商人出身的艾纳尔斯·斯莱塞尔斯（Ainars Slesers）经常被比作美国总统唐纳德·特朗普。该党以保守的立场和经济复苏的承诺赢得支持，与“主权力量党”不同，它有可能成为执政联盟中的重要合作伙伴。
Carefully avoiding the word "Ukraine", Vjaceslavs Stepanenko, the head of SV's local list in Latgale and husband of the party’s chairwoman, advocates "stopping all aid to any foreign state"."We are the ones who need help, not the other way around," he tells AFP. Another populist party, Latvia First (LPV), is also at nine percent, and its businessman leader Ainars Slesers is regularly compared to US President Donald Trump.
“最大的问题是‘联合名单党’（United List）是否会与斯莱塞尔斯的政党合作，”相关人士表示。
The party is winning support with a conservative message and promises of economic revival, and unlike SV, it could become an indispensable partner in coalition talks."
id政治分析师Sigita Struberga。-俄语选民--占拉脱维亚人口约35%的俄语选民长期支持“和谐”党，不再作为一个统一的集团投票。和谐党在从未进入政府的情况下赢得了多次议会选举，于2022年从议会消失，回归的机会微乎其微。分析师奇茨表示：“我们不应该将俄语选民视为一个选举行为统一的单一群体。”虽然身份问题尚未消失，但越来越多的选民现在根据经济和社会标准投票。
The big question is whether the United List will cooperate with Slesers' party," said political analyst Sigita Struberga.- Russian-speaking vote -Long rallied behind the "Harmony" party, Russian-speakers, who make up about 35 percent of Latvia's population, no longer vote as a unified bloc. Harmony, which won several parliamentary elections without ever entering government, disappeared from parliament in 2022 and has very little chance of returning." We should not look at Russian-speaking voters as a single bloc with a uniform electoral behaviour," analyst Kits said. While identity issues have not disappeared, a growing part of this electorate now votes according to economic and social criteria."I'm going to vote for Slesers' party," Valentin Trofimov, a 62-year-old watch repairman from Daugavpils, told AFP.
来自道加夫皮尔斯的62岁手表维修工瓦伦丁·特罗菲莫夫（Valentin Trofimov）告诉法新社：“我要投票给斯莱塞斯党。”在他看来，这个国家“缺乏一切资金”，包括交通、教育和医疗。“工资太低了，”他说。
In his view, the country "lacks money for everything," including transport, education and medicine." Wages are too low," he said.