几十年来，欧盟一直引领全球实施旨在减少排放的政策，建立了全球最重要的碳定价机制，并为广泛的监管工作制定了规则。如今，随着气候变化的代价日益难以忽视，该集团正越来越多地将重心转向适应。
For decades, the European Union has led the world in implementing policies designed to cut emissions, creating the world’s most important price on carbon and crafting the rules of the road for a wide range of regulatory efforts. Now, as the costs of climate change become increasingly difficult to ignore, the bloc is increasingly focusing on adaptation.
在9月8日的一次采访中，欧盟委员会执行副主席、主管气候政策的特雷莎·里贝拉告诉我，气候变化影响的不断上升的成本意味着，决策者需要将适应视为经济政策的一个关键重点。
In a Sept. 8 interview, Teresa Ribera, who oversees climate policy in the EU as executive vice-president of the European Commission, told me that the growing costs of the effects of climate change mean that policymakers need to consider adaptation as a key focus of economic policy.
“没有任何公共预算能够承担所有这些费用。没有任何私人保险能够应对所有这些成本，”我们在纽约欧盟代表团办公室会面时，她说道。“我们需要投资以减少这些影响和成本。”欧盟转向适应，是这一气候时刻的一个重要标志。最显而易见的是，它表明了一个残酷的现实：全球减排努力未能防止气候变化的影响显现。
“There is no public budget that can support all of this. There is no private insurance that can cope with all these costs,” she said when we met at the EU Delegation office in New York. “We need to invest to reduce these impacts and this cost.”The EU’s turn to adaptation is an important marker of this climate moment. Most obviously, it signals the harsh reality that global emission reductions efforts have failed to forestall the effects of climate change.
这也是一个警钟。欧洲决策者对适应的关注——以及最终其他地区的跟进——应有助于保护经济免受气候变化日益增长的风险。但这也将迫使企业和政府直面它们在很大程度上一直能够推迟的成本。这有利于长期的经济福祉，但对于准备不足者来说，可能会带来即时的冲击。
It's also a wake-up call. A focus on adaptation from policymakers in Europe—and eventually elsewhere—should help protect the economy from the growing risks of climate change. But it will also force businesses and governments to confront costs they have largely been able to defer. This is good for long-term economic wellbeing, but it may come as an immediate shock for the unprepared.
欧盟方法的核心是一个预计将于本月晚些时候发布的新适应框架。乍一看，它听起来可能只是另一份确定应对气候风险方法的白皮书。它呼吁成员国采用统一的方法来衡量气候风险，确立原则以确保基础设施建设考虑到未来的气候条件，并努力确定欧洲最脆弱的地区。
At the heart of the EU’s approach is a new adaptation framework due for release later this month. At first glance, it can sound like just another white paper identifying approaches to dealing with climate risk. It calls for a common approach for member states to measure climate risk, principles to ensure that infrastructure is built with future climate conditions in mind, and efforts to identify the most vulnerable places in Europe.
然而，从欧盟当局提前发布的内容来看，值得强调的是，这将不仅仅是一份白皮书。该方案预计将包含拟议立法，其中可能要求欧盟成员国制定气候适应计划，作为获得资金的前提条件。里贝拉表示，该框架最终可能成为未来更具指导性法规的基础。“可能会出台某些日益严格的法规，”她告诉我。
Yet, looking at what EU authorities have released in advance, it is worth underlining that this will not be just a white paper. The package is expected to include proposed legislation that, among other things, could require EU member states to develop climate resilience plans as a prerequisite to funding. And, Ribera says, the framework may eventually serve as the basis for more prescriptive future regulation. “There may be certain regulations that could be increasingly tougher,” she told me.
虽然欧盟的适应工作酝酿已久，但去年夏天带来了额外的公众关注和压力。创纪录的高温席卷大半个大陆，导致数万例超额死亡。野火逼近主要欧洲城市，这曾是不可想象的威胁。同时，干旱条件使灭火工作更加困难。里贝拉说，这是“一次相当震撼的经历”。
While the EU’s adaptation work has been long coming, this past summer provided additional public attention and pressure. Record heat swept much of the continent, leading to tens of thousands of excess deaths. Wildfires encroached on major European cities, a once unthinkable threat. Meanwhile, drought conditions made fires harder to fight. It was “quite a shocking experience,” says Ribera.
总体数字同样令人震惊。根据欧洲环境署的数据，2021年至2024年间，与气候相关的极端事件导致欧盟经济损失超过2000亿欧元。其中大部分损失未投保，只能由政府、企业或家庭自行承担。如果不加干预，随着极端事件加剧，这些数字只会增加。里贝拉表示，欧盟正与保险公司合作，在合理的范围内扩大承保范围，同时利用公共和私人融资来覆盖仅靠保险无法覆盖的风险。
The aggregate numbers are just as shocking. Between 2021 and 2024, climate-related extreme events led to more than €200 billion in economic losses in the EU, according to figures from the European Environment Agency. Much of those losses were uninsured, leaving the losses to be absorbed by governments, businesses, or households. Without intervention, those numbers will only grow as extreme events worsen. Ribera says the EU is working with insurers to expand coverage where it makes sense while also using public and private financing to cover risks that cannot be covered by insurance alone.
在许多圈子里，一提到欧盟的气候政策，往往就会变成关于倒退的讨论。这为那些想把注意力转移到别处的人提供了方便的借口。今年早些时候，欧盟放宽了企业可持续发展披露规则，并调整了碳定价框架。本周，该集团表示正在考虑推迟实施旨在遏制甲烷排放的规则中的某些要素。
In many circles, the first mention of climate policy in the EU tends to be a discussion about backtracking. It’s a convenient excuse for those who want to train their attention elsewhere. Earlier this year, the EU softened its corporate sustainability disclosure rules and adjusted its carbon pricing framework. This week, the bloc said it was considering delaying implementation of elements of the rules meant to curb methane emissions.
里贝拉坚称，这误解了欧洲的视角。长期目标保持不变。事实上，今年早些时候，欧盟设定了一个具有法律约束力的2040年减排目标。“有些人有强烈的诱惑，想说‘好吧，让我们放弃吧’，或者‘让我们降低标准’，”她对我说。但她辩称，欧洲相反需要以“谦逊而灵活的方式”推进，同时“保持方向感、承诺和原则”。或许更重要的是，该集团正将气候纳入其经济规划的核心。
Ribera insists that this misunderstands the European perspective. The long-term goals remain the same. Indeed, earlier this year the EU created a legally binding 2040 emissions reduction target. “There is this strong temptation from some to say, ‘Okay, let’s give up,’ or ‘Let’s lower the bar,’” she told me. But, she argued, Europe instead needs to proceed in a “humble and flexible manner” while “keeping the sense of direction, the commitments, [and] the principles.”Perhaps more importantly, the bloc is incorporating climate into the core of its economic planning.
关于产业政策、基础设施、公共支出和竞争的决策，越来越多地不仅要考虑排放，还要考虑气候风险。里贝拉对我说，可持续性正走向“经济的真正核心”。
Decisions about industrial policy, infrastructure, public spending, and competition increasingly have to account not only for emissions but climate risk. Sustainability is moving into “the real heart of the economy,” Ribera told me.
任何过度聚焦于单一政策调整的人，都有可能因小失大，只见树木不见森林。
Anyone who trains their eyes too closely on one policy adjustment risks missing the forest for the trees.