分离主义者有望赢得魁北克省选举。这对独立意味着什么？魁北克党誓言将举行独立公投，距离魁北克上次投票反对独立已过去三十年。选民想要变革，但可能不想要那么大的变革。
Separatists Are Set to Win Quebec’s Election. What Will It Mean for Independence? The Parti Québécois has vowed to hold a referendum on independence, three decades after Quebec voted “no.”Voters want change, but maybe not that much.
上个月，在魁北克市魁北克团结党竞选办公室，支持者们观看对手魁北克党领导人保罗·圣皮埃尔·普拉蒙东参加省选辩论。图片来源……在利穆卢区，距离老魁北克的鹅卵石街道不远，几乎看不出支持魁北克独立的外在迹象：没有百合花旗帜，家家户户和商铺橱窗里也没有“赞成”标语。候选人挨家挨户敲门时，听到选民关心的是食品价格上涨、与美国的贸易战甚至大麻问题——而不是脱离加拿大、建立主权国家。
Supporters at the Québec Solidaire campaign office in Quebec City watching Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leader of the rival Parti Québécois, in a provincial election debate last month. Credit... Supported by In Limoilou, a neighborhood not far from Old Quebec’s cobblestone streets, there were few outward signs of support for Quebec’s independence: no fleur-de-lis flags, no “oui” signs in the windows of homes or shops. Candidates knocking on doors heard voter concerns about rising food prices, the trade war with the United States and even cannabis — not about breaking away from Canada and forging a sovereign nation.
魁北克党——曾两次举行失败的独立公投的政党——誓言如果在周一的省选中获胜，将发起第三次公投。民调显示，尽管整个法语省份对独立的支持率很低，但该党依然被看好获胜。
The Parti Québécois — the party that held two previous, unsuccessful referendums on independence — has vowed to call a third if it wins Monday’s provincial election. Polls show that it is favored to win despite low support for independence itself across the French-speaking province.
距离魁北克上次对独立说“不”已过去三十多年，魁北克党发现越来越难说服选民脱离加拿大——甚至在魁北克市利穆卢等历史上的分离主义社区也是如此。
More than three decades since Quebec last said “no” to independence, the Parti Québécois is finding it harder to persuade voters to leave Canada — even in historically separatist neighborhoods like Limoilou in Quebec City.
在利穆卢主干道上的一个公共广场，弗朗索瓦·博诺回忆起自己在1980年和1995年的公投中投了赞成票，因为他作为法裔魁北克人，深受歧视历史的触动。但多年来，他逐渐设想魁北克的未来是在加拿大之内。
At a public square on Limoilou’s main avenue, François Bonneau recalled voting for independence in the referendums of 1980 and 1995, moved by the history of discrimination against French Québécois like himself. But over the years, he came to envision Quebec’s future within Canada.
“如果我们在一起，我们会更强大，”69岁的博诺先生说。“如果我们分离，我们会变得更渺小、更无力。”魁北克党在民调中领先，因为选民在魁北克未来联盟执政八年后渴望变革，该党是一个亲商业、中右翼的政党，由克里斯蒂娜·弗雷谢特领导，她在深受民众厌恶的弗朗索瓦·勒戈辞职后于4月成为省长。魁北克党还受益于选民在其他四个主要政党之间的分散，尽管尚不清楚它能否获得组建多数政府所需的127个席位中的半数以上。政治分析人士表示，许多选民因其承诺举行第三次公投而感到反感。
“If we’re together, it makes us stronger,” Mr. Bonneau, 69, said. “If we separate, we’ll be smaller, less powerful.”The Parti Québécois leads in the polls because voters want change after eight years of the Coalition Avenir Québec, a pro-business, center-right party led by Christine Fréchette, who became premier in April after the resignation of the deeply unpopular François Legault. The Parti Québécois is also benefiting from an electorate split among four other major parties, though it is not clear it will get more than half of the 127 seats required to form a majority government. Many voters are turned off by its commitment to a third referendum, political analysts say.