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彭博社

描绘全球经济:美国就业增长放缓Charting the Global Economy: US Employment Growth Moderates

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美国9月新增就业人数低于预期,工资增长令人失望,这表明高成本令雇主保持谨慎。

The US economy added fewer workers than projected in September and wage growth disappointed, suggesting high costs are keeping employers cautious.

包括能源成本上涨在内的价格压力在全球范围内不断上升。在欧元区,通货膨胀加速到三年来的最高水平。除了石油产品,战争和天气也将世界粮食价格推升至2022年以来的最高水平。

By Vince Golle Price pressures, including higher costs for energy, have mounted across the globe. In the euro area, inflation accelerated to the quickest in three years. Beyond petroleum products, war and weather have driven world food prices to the highest since 2022.

以下是彭博社(Bloomberg)本周关于全球经济、市场和地缘政治最新发展的一些图表:根据美国劳工统计局的数据,美国9月份增加了2.9万个就业岗位,低于预期,工资增长放缓。强劲的消费支出和强劲的商业投资支持了招聘,但许多注重成本的雇主采取了谨慎的方法来扩大员工人数。这导致了每月招聘的不平衡。

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, markets and geopolitics:

随着11月中期选举的临近,人们对负担能力问题的不满主要集中在燃料、食品和住房成本的上涨上。但对于数百万美国人来说,除了家庭预算面临的另一个威胁之外,这些费用还在不断增加:学生贷款账单飙升。

The US added 29,000 jobs in September, fewer than expected, and wage growth slowed, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Robust consumer spending and vigorous business investment have supported hiring, but many cost-conscious employers have taken a measured approach to expanding headcount. That’s led to uneven hiring from month to month.

美国9月制造业活动扩张速度略有放缓,因工厂在强劲需求与成本回升和运输延迟之间取得平衡。工厂活动连续9个月处于扩张性区域(或超过50个月),这是自2022年以来最长的一次。

Heading into the November midterm elections, frustration over affordability issues has largely focused on rising fuel, food and housing costs. But for millions of Americans, those expenses are piling on top of another threat to their household budgets: surging student loan bills.

欧洲欧元区通胀加速至三年来最高水平,增强了欧洲央行将进一步加息的预期。核心通胀率(不包括推动最新一轮价格压力的能源等波动性项目)升至2.5%。

US manufacturing activity expanded at a slightly slower pace in September as factories balanced robust demand with resurgent costs and shipping delays. Factory activity has been in expansionary territory — or over 50 — for nine consecutive months, the longest stretch since 2022.

全球债券抛售引发了一场溃败,其对法国的冲击比任何人预期的都更猛烈、更迅速。人们对赤字目标落空、政策僵局以及明年可能彻底改变国家方向的总统大选感到不安。

Europe Euro-area inflation quickened more than expected to the highest in three years, bolstering expectations that the European Central Bank will lift interest rates further. Core inflation — excluding volatile items like energy, which has driven the latest bout of price pressure — rose to 2.5%.

俄罗斯正通过规划创纪录的战争开支、放弃削减军费的计划,为乌克兰战争持续数年做准备。预计明年军费开支将达17.1万亿卢布(约2050亿美元),较今年计划的国防开支增长逾40%——实际总额仍属机密——且较战前一年激增近380%。

A selloff in global debt has fueled a rout that’s hitting harder and faster in France than anyone expected. Nerves are fraying about missed deficit targets, policy gridlock and presidential elections next year that could radically alter the country’s direction.

亚洲 中国工业企业利润增速降至去年11月下滑以来最低,凸显了复苏的局限性——这种复苏主要由高企的油价和与人工智能相关的行业不成比例地拉动。工业利润同比仅增长4.2%,而7月份增幅为11.2%。

Russia is preparing for the war in Ukraine to continue for years by planning record war spending, abandoning plans to rein in military outlays. Projected military expenditures next year of 17.1 trillion rubles ($205 billion) would amount to an annual increase of more than 40% compared to this year’s planned defense outlays — actual totals remain classified — and a nearly 380% rise from the year before the war began.

印度炼油厂正租用油轮穿越霍尔木兹海峡,从波斯湾内部提取原油,这一战术调整旨在帮助其降低成本并保障供应链安全。这一策略转变源于近几个月霍尔木兹海峡运输量的恢复,以及沙特东西向管道的重启。摩根大通在一份报告中称,来自中东的原油出货量现已恢复至战前水平的98%。

Asia China’s industrial enterprises saw their earnings grow at the weakest since they fell last November, highlighting the limits of a recovery disproportionately driven by elevated oil costs and sectors linked to artificial intelligence. Industrial profits rose just 4.2% from a year earlier after an increase of 11.2% in July.

新兴市场 哥伦比亚意外加息至2024年以来最高水平,因央行寻求在连续多年未达通胀目标后恢复公信力。年通胀率加速至6.24%,预计今明两年将维持在央行目标区间上限之上。

Indian oil refiners are hiring tankers to sail through the Strait of Hormuz to pick up crude from within the Persian Gulf, a change of tactics to help them cut costs and secure their supply chains. The change in strategy comes after a recovery in flows through Hormuz in recent months, and the restoration of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline. Shipments of crude oil from the Middle East are now at 98% of pre-war levels, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a note.

加蓬的美元债券本周成为新兴市场表现最差的资产,此前政府就发行新证券的计划举行了一系列投资者电话会议,引发了对其债务水平披露的质疑,导致收益率飙升。

Emerging Markets Colombia unexpectedly raised interest rates to the highest level since 2024 as the central bank seeks to restore credibility after years of missing its inflation target. Annual inflation accelerated to 6.24% and is forecast to remain above the upper end of the central bank’s target range this year and next.

全球食品价格在9月延续涨势,升至2022年11月以来的最高点,不断升级的地缘政治和天气干扰扰乱了农业部门。

Gabon’s dollar-bonds are the worst performers in emerging markets this week after the government held a series of investor calls on plans to sell new securities, raising questions about its disclosure of debt levels and sending yields soaring.

极端天气、贸易中断和投入品价格飙升的组合拳今年重创了农民。随着许多农作物进入关键的收获和播种期,这正在制造不确定性。

World Global food prices extended gains in September, reaching the highest since November 2022 as mounting geopolitical and weather disruptions roil the farm sector. A combination of extreme weather, trade disruptions and input price spikes has battered farmers this year. That’s creating uncertainty as critical harvesting and planting periods commence for many crops.