由于美国就业数据表现疲软，加之法国金融市场出现剧烈动荡，美联储与欧洲央行的决策者们在本月会议上进一步跟进9月份加息举措的迫切性已有所降低。
Any urgency among Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policymakers to follow up September interest-rate hikes at this month’s meetings has been dialed back in the wake of soft US jobs data and acute stress in French financial markets.
作者：克里斯托弗·康登、文斯·戈勒与克雷格·斯特林。未来几天，两家央行都将公布上月议息会议的纪要。当时，出于对通胀压力不断加剧的担忧，它们均上调了基准利率。在美国，强劲的经济增长有力支撑了就业市场，这也使得美联储能够集中精力应对通胀问题。定于本周三公布的美联储9月会议纪要或许会显示：众多决策者对物价走势深感忧虑，并预计今年年底前至少还会再加息一次。
By Christopher Condon, Vince Golle and Craig Stirling Both central banks in the coming days will release minutes of the meetings last month at which they raised benchmark rates bowing to concerns about mounting inflationary pressures In the US, solid economic growth has been bolstering the job market, allowing the Fed to zero in on inflation. Minutes of the Fed’s September gathering, due on Wednesday, could reveal that many policymakers were deeply worried about underlying price trends and expecting to lift rates at least one more time before the end of the year.
然而，上周五公布的最新就业数据显示，新增就业岗位数量不及预期，薪资增长也乏善可陈——这些迹象进一步表明，劳动力市场并未助推当前的通胀势头。本周早些时候，官方对美联储所青睐的通胀指标所作的修正数据也显示，今年美国的通胀水平实际上略低于预期。
However, fresh employment data on Friday showed lower-than-expected job creation and lackluster wage growth — adding to evidence that the labor market isn’t contributing to existing inflationary winds. Earlier in the week, government revisions to the Fed’s preferred price gauge showed inflation has been a bit softer this year.
此外，美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊与纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯这两位高级决策者在短短两天内均明确释放出信号：他们认为美联储并无必要急于再次加息。受此影响，投资者们也相应下调了年内加息的预期。
Moreover, two senior rate-setters — Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams — sent unambiguous signals just two days apart that they saw little urgency for the Fed to make another move. Investors duly reeled in their expectations for a hike.
美联储将于10月27日至28日举行会议，此时距离备受瞩目的美国中期选举仅数日之遥，这很可能使选举结果被卷入党派政治的漩涡之中。
US central bankers will meet Oct. 27-28, days ahead of hotly contested midterm election, threatening to drench the outcome in partisan politics.
欲了解详情，请阅读彭博经济研究发布的《美国本周经济展望》。周四，欧洲央行将公布9月9日至10日议息会议的记录，投资者将密切关注其中关于下次加息时机的线索。欧元区最新数据显示，9月份通胀率上升幅度超出预期，这主要是战争引发的能源成本上涨所致。尽管物价压力依然较高，但投资者认为10月份欧洲央行加息的可能性极低。
For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for the US On Thursday, the ECB will release the account of its Sept. 9-10 meeting and investors will watch for clues on the timing of the next ECB hike In the euro area, the latest figures showed inflation accelerated in September by more than forecast, largely due to war-driven energy costs. Despite the still-elevated price pressures, investors see very low chances of an October interest-rate hike.
债券市场压力已蔓延至全球，法国受影响尤为严重——议会分裂的局面引发了市场对预算与财政赤字的担忧。
Bond-market stress has spread globally with France hit particularly hard as its fractured parliament fuels concerns over the budget and deficit.
其他地区，加拿大将公布失业率及贸易数据，用以反映该国与美国之间的关税战所带来的影响。约有十余个国家的央行将宣布利率决策，预计印度、肯尼亚和秘鲁均会加息。
Elsewhere, Canadian unemployment and trade data will show the fallout from the country’s tariff war with the US. Central banks from about a dozen countries are due to set rates, with hikes expected in India, Kenya and Peru.
点击此处查看过去一周的重要经济动态，下文则为您梳理全球经济未来一周的看点。
Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.
亚洲地区，周三印度央行的利率决策备受关注。经济学家预计，印度储备银行将把回购利率上调至5.5%，从而与日本、澳大利亚及美国等国的央行步调一致，共同实施紧缩政策。
Asia A big focus will be the Indian central bank setting borrowing costs on Wednesday. Economists expect the Reserve Bank to hike its repurchase rate to 5.5%, joining peers in Japan, Australia and the US in tightening.
周一，澳大利亚西太平洋银行将发布消费者信心指数，受上周加息影响，该指数预计将进一步下滑。
Australia’s Westpac Bank on Monday will release consumer confidence data, which is likely to show a further decline due to last week’s rate hike.
周二，日本将公布8月份的工资数据，市场重点关注实际工资水平能否实现连续第八个月增长。
Japan reports wages data for August on Tuesday, with a key focus on whether the rise in real wages continued for an eighth straight month.
本周，中国台湾、泰国和菲律宾也将相继公布消费者物价指数，预计这三个地区的9月份通胀率均会有所上升。
Taiwan, Thailand, and the Philippines will release consumer price numbers during the week, with all three forecast to show inflation sped up in September.
整个一周内，多个国家将公布外汇储备数据。其中韩国、中国台湾和中国大陆的数据尤为值得关注，投资者希望从中判断这些地区巨额贸易顺差所产生的资金是否流入了外汇储备。印度与泰国同样会公布相关数据。
Through the week, a series of countries will report foreign reserves data, with South Korea, Taiwan and China the main ones to watch to see if any of the money from their soaring trade surpluses is appearing in the numbers. India and Thailand will also do so.
本周末或下周初，中国央行将公布9月份的信贷数据。这些数据备受市场关注，人们希望借此判断8月份出现的信贷增速放缓现象是否会出现逆转。
Toward the end of the week, or possibly early next week, China’s central bank will announce September lending data, to be closely watched to see if there’s a turnaround from the slump in lending seen in August.
在欧洲、中东及非洲地区，法国的财政问题预计仍将备受瞩目，这也将使欧洲央行成为各方关注的焦点。按计划，欧洲央行首席经济学家菲利普·莱恩、奥地利央行行长马丁·科舍以及比利时央行行长皮埃尔·温施都将出席相关活动。此外，定于周四发布的欧洲央行9月份会议纪要同样会受到严密审视。
Europe, Middle East, Africa France’s fiscal troubles are likely to stay center stage, throwing focus onto the ECB as a potential firefighter Rate-setter appearances on the schedule include ECB chief economist Philip Lane, Austria’s Martin Kocher, and Belgium’s Pierre Wunsch. An account of the central bank’s September meeting, due on Thursday, will also come under scrutiny.
关于欧洲央行新任高管的遴选工作正日益白热化。国际清算银行行长巴勃罗·埃尔南德斯-德科斯与前荷兰央行行长克拉斯·诺特均为克里斯蒂娜·拉加德的继任者有力人选，两人将于周一共同出席同一场活动。据知情人士透露，德国总理弗里德里希·默茨也将在近日分别会见这两位候选人，包括诺特在内。
Maneuvering for the selection of new ECB officials is intensifying. Both Bank for International Settlements chief Pablo Hernandez de Cos and former Dutch central bank Governor Klaas Knot — rival contenders to succeed President Christine Lagarde — appear at the same event on Monday. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is set to meet with both candidates, including Knot in the coming days according to people familiar with the matter.
周四，欧元区各国财政部长将在卢森堡举行会议，届时可能就执行委员会成员伊莎贝尔·施纳贝尔的继任者人选展开讨论。鉴于当前法国债券市场动荡不安，此次会议同样备受关注。
Euro-zone finance ministers could start discussions on a successor to Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel when they convene in Luxembourg on Thursday. That gathering will also be closely watched because of France’s bond turmoil.
在欧元区经济数据方面，制造业相关数据值得留意。从周二起，德国将连续数日发布工厂订单、工业生产及出口数据。法国、西班牙和意大利的工业生产数据也将在本周陆续公布。
Euro-region data highlights include several manufacturing releases. Starting on Tuesday, Germany publishes factory orders, industrial production and exports on successive days. French, Spanish and Italian production numbers also arrive throughout the week.
本周晚些时候，欧盟贸易专员马罗什·谢夫乔维奇将访问北京。届时，欧洲各国也将重点探讨本地区工业领域所面临的诸多挑战。
The region’s industrial challenges will focus minds when European Union Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic visits Beijing later in the week.
在英国，英国央行官员的讲话或将成为市场焦点。目前英国债券市场同样面临诸多压力，共有五位央行官员计划公开发言，其中英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利将于周四发表讲话。
Bank of England remarks may prove a highlight in the UK which faces bond-market challenges of its own. Five officials are on the schedule, including Governor Andrew Bailey on Thursday.
瑞典的通胀数据将于周四公布，此前瑞典央行已释放出可能加息的信号。在挪威，央行上月刚刚加息，相关物价指数则将于周五发布。
Swedish inflation will be published on Thursday following the Riksbank’s shift toward a likely rate increase. In Norway, where the central bank raised rates last month, the price gauge comes out on Friday.
在南非，央行行长莱塞贾·卡尼亚戈将于周二在发布货币政策评估报告时发表讲话。近期有多项货币政策决议即将出炉：冰岛政策制定者将于周三确定新的借贷成本，当前该国通胀率已升至两年来的最高水平。今年冰岛央行已累计加息75个基点。波兰官员预计也将在同日维持基准利率不变。
In South Africa, Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago will speak at the release of the Monetary Policy Review on Tuesday. A number of monetary decisions are on the schedule: Icelandic policymakers set borrowing costs on Wednesday after inflation quickened to a two-year high. They’ve already raised rates by 75 basis points this year. Polish officials are likely to keep their own benchmark unchanged the same day.
肯尼亚的政策制定者则可能自2024年以来首次加息，预计该国通胀率将进一步逼近7.5%的警戒线。
And in Kenya policymakers may hike rates for the first time since 2024, with inflation expected to edge closer to its 7.5% ceiling.
周四，坦桑尼亚央行预计将维持现有借贷成本不变，目前该国物价水平仍处于可控范围。
On Thursday, the Tanzanian central bank is set to keep borrowing costs steady at a time when prices remains contained.
罗马尼亚央行预计也将维持6.5%的利率水平，因为通胀风险依然存在。
Romania’s central bank is expected to leave its rate at 6.5% as inflation risks still linger.
同一天，随着关键的大选临近，塞尔维亚央行有可能延续其有史以来最长的政策暂停期。
Also the same day, Serbia’s central bank may extend its longest policy pause on record as pivotal general elections loom.
在拉丁美洲，哥伦比亚央行将于周一公布9月30日意外加息的决定记录：当时该行将关键利率上调0.25个百分点至12.25%。央行理事会的分歧性决策反映出当前紧缩的货币环境虽开始有所缓和，但尚不足以扭转2026年消费价格大幅上涨的趋势。
Latin America Colombia’s central bank on Monday posts a record of its surprise Sept. 30 decision to raise the key rate by a quarter point, to 12.25%. The board’s split decision reflects tight monetary conditions beginning to bend but not yet reverse 2026’s jump in consumer prices.
哥伦比亚央行此次决策是否正确，或将通过9月份的通胀数据得到验证。目前市场普遍预期，整体通胀率将从6.24%进一步上升，这一数值是央行目标值的两倍有余。
Vindication for BanRep’s decision may land with September inflation data. The early consensus sees the headline print ticking higher yet again from 6.24%, more than double the central bank’s target.
墨西哥也将公布其中央银行9月份会议的纪要以及最新的消费物价数据。尽管墨西哥央行已连续三次维持6.5%的利率水平，但此次会议后其政策导向转向以数据为依据。与哥伦比亚类似，墨西哥9月份的通胀数据预计也将显示物价涨幅继续扩大。
Mexico also serves up minutes of its central bank’s September meeting and fresh consumer-price data. Banxico, while holding fast at 6.5% for a third gathering, shifted to data-dependent guidance. Like Colombia, September data are likely to show inflation accelerated yet again.
在货币政策方面，秘鲁和乌拉圭的央行在下周的会议上都将面临艰难抉择。秘鲁9月份的通胀率进一步超出目标水平，这可能使得行长胡里奥·贝拉尔德及其同事在将利率维持在4.25%整整一年后失去耐心，进而考虑调整政策。
On the monetary policy front, the central banks of Peru and Uruguay both face tough choices at meetings in the coming week. In Peru, September inflation moved further above target, which may see Governor Julio Velarde and colleagues lose patience after a year on hold at 4.25%.
自3月份将关键利率下调75个基点以来，乌拉圭央行一直将其维持在5.75%的水平。如今该国经济在第二季度出现萎缩，同时过去五个月的数据显示消费者物价涨幅持续加快，这些因素可能让央行陷入进退两难的境地。
Uruguay’s central bank has kept its key rate at 5.75% since a 75 basis-point cut in March, and may be boxed in by the economy’s second-quarter contraction on one side and five months of data showing faster consumer-price growth on the other.
本周还将公布多国通胀数据：预计智利和巴西9月份的通胀率均会上升——智利的通胀率将从4.1%升高，巴西则从4.22%上升，两国的当前通胀水平均已超出目标值。
Inflation data round out the week, with Chile and Brazil expected to report higher prints for September — up from 4.1% in the former and 4.22% in the latter, in both cases above target.
周日将举行巴西大选，80岁的现任总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦将与右翼挑战者弗拉维奥·博索纳罗展开激烈角逐，目前胜负难料。此次选举或许会对这个拉美最大经济体的局势产生重大影响。
Brazil’s election on Sunday, pitting 80-year-old President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro in a race that’s too close to call, could shake things up for Latin America’s largest economy.
委内瑞拉央行也将公布月度及年度通胀数据——该国货币当局于2026年初恢复了此类数据的发布工作。8月份该国月度通胀率从1月份的32.6%降至10%以下，带动年度通胀率回落至534.2%。
Venezuela’s central bank will post monthly and annual inflation figures — the nation’s monetary authority resumed publication of the figures earlier in 2026. Monthly increases slowed below 10% in August, from 32.6% in January, which cooled the annual rate to 534.2%.
欲了解详情，请阅读彭博经济研究院发布的《拉美地区本周展望》全文。
For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Latin America