MONTREAL – Quebec separatists are favoured to win the election on Oct 5 in Canada’s majority French-speaking province, testing Prime Minister Mark Carney’s message of national unity to confront the United States.

Carney is popular in Quebec, and the expected success of the separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ) is not seen as a repudiation of his defiance towards US President Donald Trump, whose trade war and annexation threats have infuriated Canadians.

The PQ’s possible return to power after 12 years in opposition is tied to frustration over affordability and declining public services, rather than a growing desire among Quebecers to leave Canada, experts and polls say. Recent surveys put support for an independent Quebec at roughly 30%.

Polls also give the PQ about 30% support, but in the province’s first-past-the-post electoral system that could be enough to secure a majority in the 127-member National Assembly, with the federalist vote expected to split among several parties.

PQ leader Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon, a 49-year-old lawyer known widely by his initials PSPP, insists he will call a referendum on leaving Canada if elected, just not while Trump is in office.

In August, he said a decision on Quebec’s independence “requires conditions that allow for an informed and calm debate”.

That debate shouldn’t be “hijacked by the theatrics of an unpredictable president”, he added, ruling out a referendum until at least 2029.

Quebec has held two previous votes on leaving Canada. Federalists won comfortably in 1980, but the 1995 result was excruciatingly close, with just 50.58% voting to stay in Canada. ‘Balance of power’Polls in the province of roughly 9 million people open at 9.30am local time, and the results should be known a few hours after voting ends at 8pm.

PSPP has attacked Carney’s federal government and said that, if he is elected premier, the relationship will be defined by a “balance of power”.

“There will be dialogue, but the condition for cooperation is that Quebec be respected,” he told public broadcaster Radio-Canada.

If Quebec is not respected, “I won’t sweep under the rug the fact that it’s unacceptable”, he added. Carney is facing a complex set of conflicting forces.

His Liberal government enjoys broad support, and many Canadians credit him with leading national – and at times international – opposition to Trump.

But in addition to the possible return of separatist governance in Quebec, voters in the oil-rich province of Alberta will hold a non-binding vote this month on whether they want independence.

Asked on Oct 1 about the upcoming Quebec vote, Carney assured his government would work “with the next Quebec premier in a spirit of cooperative federalism”. ‘Abolish the monarchy?’

PSPP may not have majority backing for an independent Quebec, but his plans to target the British monarchy appear far more popular.

Canada is part of the British Commonwealth. King Charles III, Canada’s head of state, is represented in Ottawa by the governor general. Lieutenant-governors represent the monarchy in the provinces, including Quebec.

In a 2025 Leger poll, 87% of Quebecers said they felt no attachment to the British monarchy, and only 31% expressed a favourable view of King Charles.

“There is nothing preventing (Quebec’s) National Assembly from acting as a sovereign parliament and passing a law that abolishes the activities of the lieutenant-governor and no longer allocates a budget to this masquerade that wastes money,” said PSPP. He has proposed reallocating the lieutenant-governor’s budget to combat homelessness.