特朗普总统的经济数据持续走强，但其经济议题的民调支持率却日益恶化。
President Trump's economic data keeps getting stronger. His economic polling keeps getting worse by the day.
为何重要：中期选举不到一个月，而政府在处理选民最关心的头号问题上正陷入困境。
Why it matters: The midterms are less than a month away, and the administration is circling the drain on voters' No. 1 issue.
- 此时想要扭转局面可能为时已晚，但也不清楚是否有人制定了切实可行的应对计划。
• It may be too late to change that, but it's also not clear anyone has much of a plan to try. What they're saying:
各方观点：“如果我说‘哦，人们错了，经济很好’，那会显得我缺乏同理心。而如果我去解释为什么经济很好，同样会显得我缺乏同理心，”国家经济委员会主席凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）周日在CNN的《国情咨文》节目中表示。哈塞特补充道：“确实，民调——尽管它们每次都错误地评估了总统的政绩——显示人们对经济状况感到有些沮丧。但如果你看他们的实际行动，行动远比言语更有说服力，”他引用了消费支出和违约数据作为佐证。
"If I say 'oh, people are wrong, the economy is great,' then it looks like I'm insensitive. And if I then go into why the economy is great, then it looks like I'm insensitive," National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union." • "It's true that the polls, which have gotten the president's success wrong every time, have been saying that people are looking a little bit depressed about the economy. But if you look at their actions, the actions speak way louder than words," Hassett added, citing spending and default data. The big picture:
宏观视角：有充分证据表明，从统计角度来看，美国经济相对强劲。
There is ample evidence the economy is, statistically speaking, relatively strong.
- 经济增长稳固且正在加速。
• Economic growth is solid and accelerating.
- 劳动力市场相对稳定。
• The labor market is relatively stable.
- 随着低收入群体工资上涨，K型经济现象正在消退。
• The K-shaped economy is ending as lower-end wages rise.
- 公共和私营部门的数据均显示，消费者的支出达到了前所未有的水平。
• Public and private data say consumers are spending more than ever.
然而：民众情绪低迷。
Yes, but: People lousy.
- 美国咨商会（Conference Board）的消费者信心指数处于12年来的最低水平。
• The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is at a 12-year low.
- 根据密歇根大学的数据，共和党选民的情绪正在以自大金融危机以来最快的速度恶化。
• Republican sentiment in particular is eroding at its fastest rate since the Great Financial Crisis, per University of Michigan data.
- 最新CBS新闻民调显示，38%的选民表示他们的个人财务状况一般或很差——这或许反映了通胀率已连续数月超过工资增长的事实。（当被问及在评价经济时考虑什么时，91%的受访者表示是“物价”。）·根据AP-NORC的最新调查，73%的人不赞成特朗普总统对经济的处理方式，这是他或拜登总统有史以来的最低支持率。(69%的人表示特朗普在第二个任期内对生活成本问题的处理比他们预期的要糟糕。）
• 38% of voters told the latest CBS News poll their personal finances are fairly or very bad — a reflection, perhaps, of the fact that inflation has outpaced wage growth for months now. (When respondents were asked what they think about when they rate the economy, 91% said "prices.") • 73% disapprove of President Trump's handling of the economy, per the latest AP-NORC survey, the lowest rating he — or President Biden — ever had. (69% say Trump's handling of cost-of-living issues has been worse than they expected in his second term.) Friction point:
摩擦点：当选民去投票站时，他们不会携带经济分析局的最新数据。·他们带来了自己的感觉，而且这些感觉非常糟糕。
When voters go to the polls, they don't bring the latest release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis with them. • They bring their feelings, and those are very bad.
- 财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）告诉《Axios Show》，政府不会重蹈贝娄时代的错误，告诉人们如何感受。·但特朗普本人上周表示，共和党在信息传递方面做得不够好。
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told "The Axios Show" the administration wasn't going to repeat the Biden-era mistake of telling people how to feel. • But Trump himself said last week that Republicans weren't doing a good enough job of messaging.
阴谋：到目前为止，特朗普的策略似乎是富叔叔理论，这似乎没有在选民中得到回报。
The intrigue: So far, Trump's strategy seems to be the rich-uncle theory, which doesn't appear to be paying off with voters.
- 如果共和党赢得中期选举，他继续承诺为每个成年公民提供5，000美元的支票--这是一个1.3万亿美元的重磅炸弹，大多数人都不相信他会支付。
• He continues to promise $5,000 checks for every adult citizen if Republicans win the midterms — a $1.3 trillion bombshell that most people don't believe he'll ever pay.
- 周六，他承诺向老年人提供20亿美元的医疗保险回扣，这个数字相当于大约两周的保费支付。
• On Saturday, he promised seniors $2 billion in Medicare rebates, a big number that works out to about two weeks' worth of premium payments.
字里行间：部分紧张局势来自经济繁荣的性质，这是一场人工智能推动的繁荣，但似乎却让许多普通美国人落后了。
Between the lines: Some of the tension comes from the nature of the economic boom, an AI-fueled bonanza that nonetheless appears to be leaving many ordinary Americans behind.
- Evercore ISI经济主管克里希纳·古哈（Krishna Guha）表示，这不是一个K型经济，而是一个“鳄鱼经济”--就像鳄鱼嘴里一样，底部保持平坦，顶部指向天空，准备咀嚼。
• It's not a K-shaped economy, says Krishna Guha, head of economics at Evercore ISI, but a "gator economy" — as in an alligator's mouth, where the bottom stays flat and the top is pointing to the sky poised to chomp. The bottom line:
底线：有充分的理由认为经济并没有那么糟糕。·还有更好的理由认为选民不在乎。
There's good reason to think the economy's not that bad. • There's even better reason to think voters don't care.