消费者信心低迷，但经济却强劲前行，得益于人工智能投资热潮以及民众尽管承受高物价压力仍持续消费。这可能会让许多不满的选民感到意外，但美国经济表现相当不错。
Consumer sentiment is sagging, yet the economy is powering forward, driven by an AI investment boom and people still spending despite the strain of higher prices. It might surprise a lot of disgruntled voters, but the U.S. economy is doing pretty well.
毕竟，油价屡次突破每桶100美元，推高汽油价格至每加仑4美元以上。美国政府借贷成本上升，推高抵押贷款利率至7%以上。消费者情绪低落，民调显示特朗普总统对经济的管理评价极差。
After all, oil prices have repeatedly breached $100 a barrel, driving gas prices above $4 a gallon. The U.S. government’s borrowing costs are rising, pushing mortgage rates above 7%. Consumers are gloomy, and polling on President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy is abysmal.
然而，经济仍在强劲前行，得益于人工智能投资热潮，以及普通民众尽管承受高物价压力仍在持续消费。标普全球上周发布的一项调查显示，美国商业活动以五年多来最快速度加速扩张，提振了就业和制造业产出。这表明过去三个月国内生产总值（GDP）可能以约4%的快速增速增长。
And yet, the economy is powering forward, driven by an AI investment boom, and everyday people who are still spending despite the strain of higher prices. A survey last week by S&P Global showed that U.S. business activity accelerated at the fastest pace in more than five years, boosting employment and manufacturing output. That suggests GDP might have grown at a rapid pace of about 4% over the past three months.
政府上周公布的数据显示，失业率回落至4.1%，首次申请失业救济人数接近57年低点。
Unemployment has fallen back down to 4.1%, and the number of new people claiming jobless benefits was near 57-year lows, the government said last week.
但在距离中期选举仅一个多月之际，这些积极数据难以说服公众，届时可负担性担忧预计将主导选民决策，而消费者信心自今年年初以来已下降15%。事实上，特朗普的经济可能是其自身成功的受害者，美联储预计在年底前至少再加息一次，以抑制部分由该增长推动的通胀。
But those positive numbers are hard to pitch to the public just over a month until the midterm elections, where affordability concerns are expected to dominate voter decisions and consumer sentiment has fallen 15% since the beginning of the year. In fact, Trump’s economy may be a victim of its own success, with the Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates at least once more before the year is out in a bid to rein in inflation that’s being fueled in part by that growth.
白宫经济顾问委员会主席克里斯·费兰在接受采访时表示：“我不喜欢坐在那里，当有人表示不开心时，却说‘不，事实上你是开心的’。那样只会让他们对你生气。”“所以如果有人不开心，至少我希望他们知道我们正在努力制定实际政策来解决问题。”
“I do not like to sit there and be in the position of, when a person says they’re unhappy, saying, ‘Oh no, in fact, you are happy,’” said Chris Phelan, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, in an interview. “All that happens then is they get mad at you.” “So if someone is unhappy, at least I want them to know that we’re trying to work on actual policies to address the problems,” he said.
费兰列举了美国人应对未来保持乐观的理由。他辩称，政府的长期借贷成本上升，是因为投资者对国家增长前景持乐观态度。他指出，制造业产出增加，包括但不限于人工智能在内的多个领域的商业投资也在上升。
Phelan laid out reasons why Americans should be hopeful about the future. He argued that long-term borrowing costs are rising for the government because investors are optimistic about the nation’s growth. He pointed to higher manufacturing output and business investment in sectors including but not limited to AI.
他还表示，政府正试图解决消费者面临的具体痛点，例如增加牛肉进口，并通过旨在增加住房供应的立法。
And he said the administration is trying to address specific pain points for consumers, such as by increasing beef imports and passing legislation intended to boost the supply of housing.
“在抢椅子游戏中，当你造出更多椅子，更多人就能坐下，椅子的价格就会下降，”他说。“或者至少不会涨那么多。”周末，特朗普在Truth Social上抱怨，媒体对其执政期间可靠的经济数据报道不足。
“In a game of musical chairs, when you make more chairs, more people get to sit, and the price of a chair goes down,” he said. “Or at least doesn’t rise as much.” Over the weekend, Trump complained on Truth Social that there isn’t enough media coverage of the solid economic data under his watch.
面对多重冲击，经济表现出了惊人的韧性，最近的冲击包括油价上涨——由特朗普发动的伊朗战争叠加俄乌冲突引发——以及总统全面的新关税制度。这种韧性没有消退的迹象，尽管其部分强劲程度可能被夸大了。
The economy has remained remarkably resilient in the face of multiple shocks, most recently oil prices — spurred by Trump’s war in Iran on top of the Russia-Ukraine conflict — as well as the president’s sweeping new tariff regime. And that resilience doesn’t show signs of fading, though some of its strength may be overstated.
但除了美联储可能加息（旨在放缓商业活动）之外，经济还面临迫在眉睫的全球柴油短缺，这可能加剧生活成本担忧。
But in addition to the likely Fed rate hikes, which would be aimed at slowing business activity, the economy is also facing a looming global diesel fuel shortage, which could worsen cost-of-living concerns.
研究机构Commodity Context的石油市场分析师罗里·约翰斯顿表示，痛苦将更逐步地显现，部分原因是柴油缺乏简单的替代品——意味着单靠高价无法减少柴油需求。需要的是支撑该需求的经济活动减少。
Rory Johnston, an oil market analyst at research service Commodity Context, said the pain will be felt more gradually, in part because there aren’t easy alternatives for the fuel — meaning high prices alone won’t reduce demand for diesel. It will take a reduction in the economic activity behind that demand.
“这不像是重重一拳打在脸上，”约翰斯顿说。“这是一种慢慢渗透到方方面面的东西。……我们生活中真的没有什么不接触柴油的。”伊朗战争的后果还可能威胁到制造业的一些复苏迹象，进一步推高能源成本。
“It’s not like a big punch in the face,” Johnston said. “It’s this thing that just slowly starts to show up in everything over time. … There’s really nothing in our lives that diesel doesn’t touch.” Fallout from the war in Iran could also threaten some of the green shoots in manufacturing, driving energy costs even higher.
供应管理协会（ISM）基准制造业调查委员会主席苏珊·斯彭斯本月初表示，该行业在最近几个月就业有所扩张，但存在再度陷入收缩的风险。
Susan Spence, who chairs the committee that puts out a benchmark manufacturing survey from the Institute for Supply Management, earlier this month said there’s a danger that the sector, which in recent months has seen employment expand, could fall back into contraction.
“这些人很沮丧，”斯彭斯说。“我们刚刚有点掌控局面了。我们设法熬过了关税混乱。……企业终于开始回填[岗位]。那个数字花了这么久才回升。”她补充道：“现在，我们又面临战争了。”
“These folks are frustrated,” Spence said. “We were just kind of getting a hold on stuff. We managed to survive the tariff chaos. … Companies finally started backfilling [jobs]. It took so long for that number to come back up.” “Now, we’ve got the war,” she added.
另一个悬而未决的问题是，如果人工智能无法兑现承诺的生产力提升和投资回报，经济和股市可能会受到多大冲击。
Another open question is the extent to which the economy and the stock market might suffer if AI doesn’t deliver on promised productivity and investment returns.
但菲兰表示有信心，认为国家的增长能够承受科技领域的某些失望。
But Phelan expressed confidence that the country’s growth could withstand some disappointment in the tech sector.
“这里不是投资人工智能的最佳之地。这里是投资的最佳之地，毫无例外，”他说。“即使人工智能投资放缓，这里仍将是投资的最佳之地。”
“This is not the best place to invest in AI. This is the best place to invest, period,” he said. “And if there’s a slowdown in AI investment, this will still be the best place to invest.”