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佩德罗·桑切斯提前召集西班牙大选的赌注会得到回报吗?Will Pedro Sánchez’s gamble to call snap general election in Spain pay off?

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西班牙人将于11月29日前往投票站——比原定时间提前了数月——此前,该国社会党总理佩德罗·桑切斯于周一上午宣布提前举行大选。此次投票将是西班牙10年内的第五次大选,预计将以人们对住房危机日益增长的愤怒情绪为主导。为何桑切斯要宣布提前举行大选?

尽管原定的下一次大选应在明年夏季结束前举行,但桑切斯决定冒险提前选举,希望西班牙住房危机引发的广泛愤怒能对他有利,并帮助他巩固其脆弱的执政基础。

Spaniards will head to the polls on 29 November – months before schedule – after the country’s socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, announced a snap general election on Monday morning The vote, which will be Spain’s fifth general election in 10 years, looks set to be dominated by growing anger over the housing crisis Why has Sánchez called the snap general election? Although the next general election was due to be held sometime before the end of next summer, Sánchez has decided to gamble by bringing it forward in the hope that widespread anger over Spain’s housing crisis could work to his advantage and allow him to shore up his fragile mandate.

上个月,87岁的玛丽卡门·阿巴斯卡尔被驱逐出她在马德里居住了70年的住所,此举引发了大规模抗议。桑切斯的少数派联合政府随即采取了紧急措施,并于上周末提交至国会。尽管民众情绪明显强烈,保守的人民党(PP)、极右翼的呼声党(Vox)以及右翼亲独立的加泰罗尼亚政党“一起”党(Junts)仍投票否决了这些措施,令住房活动人士和许多普通西班牙人愤怒不已。

The eviction last month of Maricarmen Abascal an 87-year-old woman who was removed from the home in Madrid where she had lived for 70 years, unleashed huge protests. Sánchez’s minority coalition government responded by putting together emergency measures that were put before congress at the end of last week. Despite the evident strength of public feeling, the conservative People’s party (PP), the far-right Vox party and the rightwing, pro-independence Catalan party Junts voted down the measures infuriating housing campaigners and many ordinary Spaniards.

桑切斯以务实、敢于冒险和灵活应变而闻名,他已抓住这一机会。尽管批评者认为,他执政八年本应有足够时间解决西班牙的住房问题,但抗议活动以及右翼反对派对其紧急措施的抵制,都为桑切斯提供了利用这一议题谋取选举利益的机会。民调情况如何?

Sánchez, who has a well-deserved reputation for pragmatism, risk-taking and improvisation, has seen his chance. While his critics argue that his eight years in office should have given him time to address Spain’s housing problems, both the protests and the rightwing opposition to his emergency measures offer Sánchez the chance to leverage the issue for electoral ends. How are the polls looking?

对桑切斯的西班牙工人社会党(PSOE)而言,情况并不乐观——该党数月来一直落后于人民党。尽管人民党稳居领先,但似乎尚未获得绝对多数席位,这意味着其若想执政,将不得不依赖呼声党的支持——甚至可能组成联合政府。这样的联合政府将对西班牙政治意味着什么?

Not great for Sánchez’s Spanish Socialist Workers’ party (PSOE), which has been trailing the PP for months. Although the PP is firmly in the lead, it doesn’t appear to be on course for an absolute majority, meaning it would be forced to rely on the support of Vox to govern – possibly in a coalition. What would such a coalition mean for Spanish politics?

如果“呼声党”与人民党(PP)联合执政,这将是自1975年弗朗西斯科·佛朗哥逝世、西班牙恢复民主以来,极右翼政党首次参与国家治理。

If Vox were to take office with the PP, it would be the first time that a far-right party has governed Spain since the country’s return to democracy after the death of Francisco Franco in 1975.

2020年,人民党曾谴责“呼声党”,指责其为煽动民粹的政客,推行一种基于“恐惧、愤怒、怨恨和复仇”的政治。但此后,人民党便选择隐忍,并多次与该极右翼政党在地方层面达成务实联盟。近期,在这些地区获得“呼声党”支持所付出的代价,是采纳了该党在移民问题上的强硬立场,包括其“国家优先”政策——该政策坚持,在住房及公共服务方面,西班牙本土出生者应优先于海外出生者。

The PP, which repudiated Vox in 2020 accusing them of being demagogues who practised a politics based on “fear, anger, resentment and revenge”, has since bitten its tongue and repeatedly entered into pragmatic regional coalitions with the far-right party. The price for Vox’s backing in those regions recently has been the adoption of the party’s hard line on immigration, including its “national priority” policy that insists Spanish-born people receive priority over those born abroad for housing and public services.

因此,这听起来似乎是一场不小的豪赌。那么,为何桑切斯愿意冒险提前举行大选?

It sounds like quite a gamble, then. Why is Sánchez prepared to risk the early election?

在2023年7月的上次大选中,桑切斯仅以微弱优势重返执政。他通过向加泰罗尼亚的独立支持政党承诺一项备受争议的赦免法,换取了他们的支持——该法旨在赦免2017年试图非法脱离西班牙而失败行动的相关人员。桑切斯与规模较小的左翼联盟“Sumar”组成的少数派联合政府,一直难以在充满争议的国会中推动立法,且自2023年以来尚未通过任何预算案。三年前曾给予他有条件支持的“Junts”党,则试图从政府中榨取最大利益,但一旦感到不满便随时退出,此前在紧急住房措施问题上便是如此。

The prime minister only just scraped his return to office in the last general election in July 2023 after he won the backing of Catalan pro-independence parties by promising a controversial amnesty law to those involved in the failed, illegal push for independence from Spain in 2017. Sánchez’s minority coalition government with the smaller, leftwing Sumar alliance, has struggled to get legislation through a fraught congress and has not passed a budget since 2023. Junts, which offered him conditional support three years ago, has attempted to extract maximum benefits from the government, only to abandon it when it feels so inclined, as it did with the emergency housing measures.

而他的问题远不止于此。政府还因处理西班牙北非飞地城市休达的危机而受到猛烈批评。这场危机源于约7万人曾在48小时内从邻国摩洛哥涌入该地。

Nor do his problems end there. The government has also been fiercely criticised over its handling of the crisis in Spain’s North African enclave of Ceuta which was sparked when about 70,000 people crossed into the territory from neighbouring Morocco in the space of 48 hours.

最后但同样重要的是,过去两年间,桑切斯的政府、其所属政党以及核心圈子都深陷腐败指控之中,这对一位上任时曾誓言要成为腐败与贪渎克星的总理而言,无疑极具尴尬。面对这一切,不难理解为何这位总理可能认为,提前举行选举比再经历数月的立法僵局、互相攻击和令人难堪的媒体报道更为可取。接下来会发生什么?

Last, but by no means least, Sánchez’s administration, party and inner circle have been mired in corruption allegations over the past two years which have proved acutely embarrassing for a prime minister who took office vowing to be a scourge of sleaze and graft Faced with all that, it’s not hard to see why the prime minister may have decided that an early election was preferable to several more months of legislative deadlock, mud-slinging and uncomfortable headlines. What happens now?

桑切斯是一位几乎拥有“九条命”的政治家,他或许希望自己在解决住房危机方面的努力能与右翼对手形成鲜明对比,从而动员那些感到失望的选民。在周一的讲话中,他还特意提醒民众,自己是少数敢于直面唐纳德·特朗普的政治领袖之一,曾多次批评以色列在加沙的行动,并警告气候危机带来的死亡与破坏。考虑到当前局势的严峻性,这位总理再次试图将此次选举描绘为进步政治与反动政治之间的简单选择,或许并不令人意外。

Sánchez, a politician with an almost feline allocation of lives, will be hoping that his efforts to tackle the housing crisis will contrast sharply with those of his rightwing opponents and thereby mobilise disenchanted voters. He was also careful to remind people in his address on Monday that he has been one of the few political leaders to stand up to Donald Trump to repeatedly criticise Israel over its actions in Gaza, and to warn of the death and destruction caused by the climate crisis Perhaps unsurprisingly given what’s at stake, the prime minister is once again pushing to characterise this latest election as a simple choice between progressive and reactionary politics.

“西班牙的男女公民们,你们必须决定:是希望加入极右翼的浪潮——这种浪潮每到一处都会导致倒退——还是希望确保西班牙继续成为开放、社会正义和环境责任的堡垒?”他在周一上午说道。

“You, the men and women of Spain, must decide whether you want to join the far-right wave that drives regression wherever it governs, or to ensure that Spain remains a bastion of openness, social justice, and environmental responsibility,” he said on Monday morning.

与此同时,桑切斯的对手们则希望,经过漫长的八年,公众已经感到厌倦和幻灭,这位西班牙政坛的“大幸存者”最终也会失去其昔日的光彩。

Sánchez’s opponents, meanwhile, will be hoping that, after eight long years, the public has grown tired and disillusioned, and that the great survivor of Spanish politics has finally lost his lustre.