万斯与克鲁兹的交锋预示共和党总统竞选将不再留有余地艾米·帕恩斯过去几天，副总统万斯与得克萨斯州参议员特德·克鲁兹（共和党）之间的言辞交锋日益尖锐，这一点显而易见：2028年共和党初选不仅已正式拉开帷幕，而且双方已不再掩饰锋芒。
Vance-Cruz battle suggests GOP gloves coming off in presidential fight Amie Parnes When Vice President Vance and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) traded increasingly personal barbs over the last few days, one thing was clear: Not only is the 2028 Republican primary officially underway, but the gloves are already coming off.
这场争执始于上周万斯对克鲁兹的抨击，他称得克萨斯州参议员竞选总统一事“显而易见”。
The tiff began when Vance swiped at Cruz last week, saying it was “really obvious” that the Texas senator was running for president.
随后，克鲁兹在周末的一次采访中予以回击，表示：“据我的经验，当人们感到不安时，往往会抛出政治炸弹。”克鲁兹在接受《政治报》（Politico）采访时说：“所以他尽管随意发表任何评论。”
Then in an interview over the weekend, Cruz pushed back, saying, “In my experience, people engage in political bomb-throwing when they’re feeling insecure.”“So he’s welcome to make whatever comments he likes,” Cruz told Politico in the interview.
这一互动让人提前窥见了共和党高层——此前一直相安无事——在中期选举后可能如何转变策略。
The exchange offered an early glimpse into how top Republicans — who have played nice so far — may switch gears after the midterms.
这也可能凸显了围绕中期选举的紧张情绪；尽管共和党正努力保住其在国会的多数席位，但他们已做好心理准备，迎接在众议院和参议院中可能遭受的惨重损失。
It also might underscore the nerves surrounding the midterms; Republicans are bracing for bruising losses in the House and Senate, even as they battle to hold their congressional majorities.
在幕后，共和党人担心中期选举的巨大失利将如何影响2028年的大选。共和党在中期选举中表现疲软，很大程度上归因于特朗普总统自身支持率的下滑。在2028年大选临近之际，这可能会对万斯产生何种影响？
Behind the scenes, Republicans are worried about how big midterm losses could translate to the race in 2028. The GOP is faltering in the midterms in large part because of President Trump’s own falling approval ratings. How might that impact Vance in the run-up to 2028?
如果共和党在中期选举中表现不佳，这是否会为克鲁兹及其他非特朗普政府成员的潜在共和党总统候选人注入动力？
If the GOP does have a poor midterm election year, does that give momentum to Cruz and other potential Republican presidential candidates who are not a part of the Trump administration?
特朗普本人尚未选定接班人，似乎很享受围绕万斯和国务卿马可·鲁比奥的竞争氛围。
Trump, for his part, hasn’t picked a successor, seemingly enjoying the competition surrounding Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
共和党策略师苏珊·德尔佩尔西奥（Susan Del Percio）表示，她本人并不支持现任总统。她说：“万斯应该感到不安，因为唐纳德·特朗普的民调数据不佳，而且到目前为止，特朗普甚至不愿承诺支持他的副总统，这一点极具说明性。”
“Vance should be insecure because of Donald Trump’s poll numbers and the fact that at this point Trump isn’t even willing to commit to his vice president is very telling,” said Republican strategist Susan Del Percio, who does not support the president.
德尔·佩尔西奥解释说，范斯目前处境尴尬，因为他必须表现得与总统之间毫无距离。她指出，如果范斯开始看起来似乎要与特朗普决裂，“那可能就意味着他与总统关系的终结”。
Del Percio explained that Vance finds himself in a precarious spot because he has to appear like there is no distance between himself and the president. And if he starts to look like he’s breaking with Trump, “that could be the beginning of the end” with the president, she said.
德尔·佩尔西奥解释说：“JD·范斯根本不可能赢。他要么过于亲特朗普，要么不够亲特朗普。而克鲁兹已经找到了机会，利用这种对JD·范斯来说毫无胜算的局势。”
“There is no winning for JD Vance,” Del Percio explained. “He’s either too Trump or not enough Trump. And Cruz has found his moment to play on a no-win situation for JD Vance.”
她补充道：“如果你是克鲁兹，这纯粹是明智的政治策略。他已经找到了一个薄弱环节，并且不会轻易放手。”不过，特朗普政府的一名官员周一表示，如果副总统决定参选，克鲁兹可能会意识到这将是一场艰难的战斗，这也是他为何要提前对范斯发起攻击的原因。
“If you’re Cruz it’s just good politics,” she added. “He’s found a weak spot, and he’s not letting go.”But one Trump administration official said Monday that if the vice president decides to run, Cruz may realize that it could be an uphill battle for him, which is why he’s taking the early shots at Vance.
这种早期的明争暗斗发生在特朗普的支持率创下历史新低之际——其中很大一部分原因可以归咎于伊朗战争、高油价和通货膨胀。
The early jockeying comes as Trump’s approval ratings have reached all-time lows — much of which can be attributed to the war in Iran, high gas prices and inflation.
例如，路透社/益普索在上个月末进行的一项民意调查显示，总统的支持率为32%，而66%的人对其工作表现表示不满。
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted late last month, for example, showed the president with a 32 percent approval rating, with 66 percent disapproving of his job performance.
美联社/NORC最近的一项民意调查对这位最高指挥官来说更为不利。该调查显示，仅有26%的人认可特朗普对经济的管理，而只有17%的人认可他对生活成本的处理方式。
A recent Associated Press/NORC poll was even more dire for the commander in chief. That survey showed just 26 percent approved of Trump’s handling of the economy and only 17 percent approved of his handling of the cost of living.
该调查还显示，65%的人认为特朗普的政策比其无法控制的因素更应对高物价负责，而十分之七的人表示，他对生活成本的处理比他们预期的更糟。
The poll also revealed that 65 percent believed Trump’s policies were more responsible for high costs than factors outside his control while 7 in 10 said his handling of the cost of living was worse than they expected.
不过，一些民意调查显示，最初反对伊朗战争的范斯，其支持率反而高于特朗普。
But some polling suggests Vance — who opposed the Iran war at the start — has a more favorable rating than Trump.
上个月，马奎特法学院对威斯康星州选民进行的一项调查显示，43%的人对这位副总统持正面看法，而持正面看法的特朗普支持者则为38%。
Last month, a Marquette Law School poll ofed voters in Wisconsin found that 43 percent viewed the vice president favorably, compared to 38 percent who viewed Trump favorably.
共和党人也承认，在经历了动荡的两年之后，如果范斯打算竞选白宫，他将面临一条艰难的道路。
Republicans acknowledge that Vance faces a tough road ahead if he is vying for a White House run on the heels of a tumultuous couple of years.
“他处于一个令人羡慕的位置，尤其是在11月我们像许多人预期那样输掉选举的情况下，”一位要求匿名的共和党策略师直言不讳地表示。“他将很难与政府所做的任何事情划清界限。而且，一旦他开始攻击特朗普，他就失去了特朗普的背书，他也心知肚明。”该策略师补充道：“而且众所周知，特朗普的背书仍然具有相当大的分量。”
“He is in an unenviable position, especially if we lose the way many are expecting in November,” said one Republican strategist who asked for anonymity to speak candidly. “It’s going to be tough for him to distance himself from anything the administration has done. And the second he begins attacking Trump, he has lost his endorsement and he knows it.”“And everyone knows Trump’s endorsement still carries a lot of weight,” the strategist added.
一位前特朗普竞选团队助手对此表示认同，称目前万斯拥有总统人脉网络的支持。
A former Trump campaign aide agreed, saying as of now Vance has the support of the president’s network behind him.
“他得到了‘特朗普世界’的支持，并且很可能能够动用特朗普的资源，”这位前助手说。“目前，没有其他人能这么说。”但这位前助手和共和党策略师都承认，政府的政策为其他潜在候选人，如克鲁兹，打开了大门，他们能够恰当地与政府保持距离。
“He has the support of Trumpworld, and likely access to Trump’s resources,” the former aide said. “Right now, no one else can say that.”But the former aide and the GOP strategist acknowledged the administration’s policies do open the doors for other potential candidates, like Cruz, who can distance themselves appropriately.
“我认为这就是为什么你开始看到猛烈的攻击，”该策略师说。“如果我们输了，情况很快就会变得非常难看，我认为如果发生这种情况，可能还有其他人在摩拳擦掌，准备入场。”鲁比奥经常被提及为2028年的主要竞争者，但他一直试图避免卷入笼罩着特朗普政府的动荡。例如，上个月，当其他共和党人——包括许多内阁部长——聚集在达拉斯举行的共和党大会时，鲁比奥却前往哥伦比亚进行外交访问。
“I think that’s why you’re starting to see the attacks coming in hot,” the strategist said. “And if we lose, it’s going to get ugly pretty quickly, and I think some other folks might be revving up to enter if that happens.”Rubio is frequently mentioned as a leading contender for 2028 but has sought to avoid some of the turmoil enveloping the Trump administration. While other Republicans — including many Cabinet secretaries — gathered last month at a GOP convention in Dallas, for example, Rubio traveled on a diplomatic trip to Colombia.
在访问期间，一名记者问他是否是共和党方面2028年最有力的候选人之一。据《华尔街日报》报道，鲁比奥回答说：“嗯，我不知道未来会怎样，但我目前没有这样的计划。”“我百分之百专注于我的工作。”一位希望鲁比奥参选的策略师告诉《山》报，国务卿一直在向捐款人表示他不会参选。
During those travels, he was asked by a reporter if he was one of the most formidable candidates on the Republican side for 2028,“Well, I don’t know what the future holds, but I have no plans at this time,” Rubio said, according to The Wall Street Journal. “I’m 100 percent focused on my jobs.”One strategist who is hoping for a Rubio candidacy told The Hill that the secretary of State has been telling donors that he’s not running.
德尔·佩尔西奥预测，如果共和党失去对参议院的控制权，这些争斗只会愈演愈烈——尤其是在克鲁兹的家乡得克萨斯州，该州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿（共和党）正与得克萨斯州民主党众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科争夺一个参议院席位。她表示：“如果帕克斯顿落选，克鲁兹会更加猛烈地攻击万斯。”
Del Percio predicted that the fights will only get bigger if Republicans lose control of the Senate — especially in Cruz’s home state of Texas, where the state’s Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) is facing off against Democratic Texas state Rep. James Talarico for a Senate seat. “If Paxton loses, Cruz will go after Vance even more,” she said.
她补充道：“退一步说，你至少也能让万斯吃点苦头。因为万斯似乎已经完美地继承了他老板的一个主要特征，那就是玻璃心。”
“If nothing else, you ding Vance up a little,” she added. “Because it seems like Vance has gotten one of the main characteristics of his boss down pat, and that is a thin skin.”