斯德哥尔摩--文学评论家表示，2026年诺贝尔文学奖将于本周晚些时候颁发给中国或加勒比地区女性，以使最常颁发给西方男性作家的奖项多元化。
STOCKHOLM – The 2026 Nobel literature prize could go to a Chinese or a Caribbean woman when it is awarded later this week, literary critics say, in a bid to diversify an award that has most often gone to Western male authors.
诺贝尔奖没有公开的候选名单，随着颁发该奖项的瑞典学院的审议和提名者名单密封了50年，斯德哥尔摩文学界在宣布诺贝尔奖之前进行了疯狂的猜测。
There is no public shortlist for the Nobel, and with the deliberations of the Swedish Academy that awards the prize and the list of nominees remaining sealed for 50 years, Stockholm’s literary circles engage in frantic guessing ahead of the announcement.
悬念将于10月8日下午1点（格林威治标准时间1100或新加坡标准时间晚上7点）结束，届时由18名成员组成的瑞典学院将公布其选择。
The suspense will end on Oct 8 at 1pm (1100 GMT or 7pm SGT) when the 18-member Swedish Academy reveals its pick.
77岁的反关塔那摩裔美国作家牙买加·金凯德（Jamaica Kincaid）的作品探讨了加勒比文化、家庭和身份以及殖民主义和种族，他的作品经常在诺贝尔奖的猜测中被提及，中国的残雪也是如此，他的前卫实验写作被比作卡夫卡。
Antiguan-American author Jamaica Kincaid, 77, whose work explores Caribbean culture, family and identity as well as colonialism and race, has often been mentioned in Nobel speculation, as has China’s Can Xue, whose avant-garde experimental writing has been compared to that of Kafka.
瑞典《快报》的文化评论家维克多·马尔姆对法新社说：“牙买加·金凯德是时候得到它了。”
“It’s about time for Jamaica Kincaid to get it,” Victor Malm, culture critic at Swedish daily Expressen, told AFP.
瑞典最大的日报《每日新闻》的文化编辑比约恩·威曼说：“她已经被提及很长时间了。”
“She has been mentioned for a long time,” said Bjorn Wiman, culture editor at Sweden’s largest daily Dagens Nyheter.
匈牙利的Laszlo Krasznahorkai在2025年获得了这一荣誉。
Hungary’s Laszlo Krasznahorkai took home the honour in 2025.
金凯德1990年的小说《露西》是一个自传体故事，讲述了一个从西印度群岛到美国做互惠生的痛苦的年轻女孩。
Women under-represented Kincaid’s 1990 novel Lucy is an autobiographical tale of an embittered young girl who travels from the West Indies to the United States to work as an au pair.
维曼说：“这本书只要读三行就足够了：‘好吧，我们在这里谈论的是一位诺贝尔奖获得者’。”
“It’s exactly the kind of book where it’s enough to read three lines to say: ‘OK, we’re talking about a Nobel laureate here’,” Wiman said.
鉴于她对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的激烈批评，向她点头也可以被解释为一种政治选择。
Giving her the nod could also be interpreted as a political choice, given her fierce criticism of US President Donald Trump.
2025年，学院向来自中欧的男性作家克拉斯纳霍凯致敬，这位作家在诺贝尔奖史册中有许多这样的作家，而维曼表示，委员会应该“保持一点距离”。
The Academy trod familiar ground in 2025 when it honoured Krasznahorkai – a male writer from central Europe, of which there are many in the Nobel annals – and Wiman said the committee should “distance itself a bit” from that.
自1901年首次颁发该奖项以来，该机构长期以来一直因西方男性作家比例过高而受到批评。
The institution has long been criticised for the over-representation of Western male authors since the prize was first awarded in 1901.
122名获奖者中只有18名女性，而且只有极少数人的作品以亚洲或中东语言撰写。没有代表非洲语言。
There are only 18 women among the 122 laureates, and only very few have bodies of work written in Asian or Middle Eastern languages. No African languages are represented.
2018年的性侵犯丑闻让该学院支离破碎，超过一半的成员最终被替换。
A 2018 sex assault scandal left the Academy in tatters, and more than half of its members ended up being replaced.
从那时起，其他所有文学奖获得者都是女性，这使得2026年的提名很可能会由女性获得。然而，瑞典学院坚称，它唯一考虑的是作家作品的质量。阿根廷？
Since then, every other literature laureate has been a woman – making it likely that the nod in 2026 could go to a woman. The Swedish Academy insists, however, that its only consideration is the quality of a writer’s work. Argentina?
与此同时，瑞典公共广播公司SR的文学评论家莉娜·卡尔姆泰格（Lina Kalmteg）表示，现在是来自拉丁美洲的西班牙语作家的时候了。
Lina Kalmteg, literary critic for Swedish public broadcaster SR, meanwhile said it was time for a Spanish-language author from Latin America.
她告诉法新社：“近年来，关于‘拉丁美洲文学奇迹’的讨论很多，这是继加布里埃尔·加西亚·马尔克斯等致力于魔幻现实主义的男性作家之后出现的新一代文学奇迹。”
“In recent years, there has been a lot of talk about the ‘Latin American literary miracle’, this new generation that came after the male authors devoted to magical realism, like Gabriel Garcia Marquez,” she told AFP.
“在这股新浪潮中，女性占据了主导地位，她们的写作往往带有女权主义色彩，但也往往相当黑暗和暴力，并点缀着超现实的色彩，”她指出。
“In this new wave, it’s women who are taking the lead, with writing often tinged with feminism, but also often quite dark and violent, punctuated by surreal touches,” she noted.
48岁的阿根廷作家萨曼塔·施韦布林（Samanta Schweblin）将是这一类别中一个有趣且令人惊讶的选择，她说。“但她肯定还太年轻，”她补充道。文学奖获得者因他们的作品而受到表彰，而不是一本出版物。
Argentinian author Samanta Schweblin, 48, would be an interesting and surprising choice in this category, she said. “But she is surely still too young,” she added. Literature laureates are honoured for their body of work, not a single publication.
最后一位获奖的南美作家是秘鲁的马里奥·巴尔加斯·略萨（Mario Vargas Llosa），于2010年获奖。
The last writer from South America to be honoured was Peru’s Mario Vargas Llosa in 2010.
诺贝尔奖猜测中经常提到的其他“常见嫌疑人”包括澳大利亚的杰拉尔德·默纳内、他的原住民同胞亚历克西斯·赖特、美国作家托马斯·品钦和墨西哥作家克里斯蒂娜·里维拉·加尔萨。
Other “usual suspects” mentioned regularly in Nobel speculation include Australia’s Gerald Murnane, his Aboriginal compatriot Alexis Wright, American author Thomas Pynchon and Mexican writer Cristina Rivera Garza.
过去几年获得诺贝尔奖的几位新作家包括德国的珍妮·埃尔彭贝克（Jenny Erpenbeck），她凭借小说《凯罗斯》（Kairos）获得2024年国际布克奖，以及越南最受欢迎的作家之一Duong Thu Huong，她的第一本书在20世纪80年代末成为畅销书，然后被禁，而且她的书主要在越南境外出版。
Several new names getting Nobel buzz the past few years are Germany’s Jenny Erpenbeck, who won the 2024 International Booker Prize for the novel Kairos, and Duong Thu Huong, one of Vietnam’s most popular writers whose first books in the late 1980s were bestsellers before they were banned, and whose books are mainly published outside Vietnam.
优胜者将获得120万美元（约150万新元）支票、金牌和证书。
The winner will take home a US$1.2 million (S$1.5 million) cheque, gold medal and diploma.