残雪被认为是今年的热门人选之一；玛格丽特·阿特伍德和萨尔曼·拉什迪也是强有力的竞争者。但在诺贝尔文学奖的评选幕后，究竟发生了什么？
Can Xue is considered one of this year's favorites; Margaret Atwood and Salman Rushdie are other strong contenders. But what goes on behind the scenes in the selection of the Nobel Prize in Literature?
位于斯德哥尔摩的诺贝尔奖博物馆大楼也是瑞典学院的所在地，该学院负责选定文学奖得主。在10月8日星期四，大约中欧夏令时间下午1点，全球文坛的目光将聚焦斯德哥尔摩。
The building of Nobel Prize Museum in Stockholm is also the home of the Swedish Academy, which selects the recipient of the literature award On Thursday, October 8, at around 1 p.m. CEST, all eyes in the literary world will be set on Stockholm.
届时，瑞典学院新任常任秘书英格丽德·卡尔伯格将举行新闻发布会，宣布2026年诺贝尔文学奖得主，这标志着一个正式始于一年前的漫长选拔过程的结束。诺贝尔文学奖：提名如何运作瑞典学院是负责颁发该奖项的机构。其18名成员由作家、教授和知识分子组成。
That's when the new permanent secretary of the Swedish Academy, Ingrid Carlberg, will hold a press conference to announce the winner of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature, marking the end of a lengthy selection process that officially began a year earlier. Nobel Prize in Literature: How nominations work The Swedish Academy is the body responsible for awarding the prize. Its 18 members consist of writers, professors and intellectuals.
在前一年的9月，学院的诺贝尔委员会会向数百名有资格提名诺贝尔文学奖的个人和组织发送表格。
In September of the previous year, the Academy's Nobel Committee sends forms to hundreds of individuals and organizations eligible to submit nominations for the Nobel Prize in Literature.
根据诺贝尔奖官网，这些人包括高校的文学和语言学教授、历届诺贝尔文学奖得主，以及各国代表本国文坛的作家协会负责人。属于上述群体但未收到表格的任何人也可提交提名。
According to the Nobel Prize website, these include professors of literature and linguistics at universities and colleges, previous Nobel laureates in literature and the heads of writers' associations that represent the literary community in their respective countries. Anyone from one of these groups who has not received a form may also submit a nomination.
“每年被提名作家的名单可达200人，”法国国家科学研究中心研究主任吉塞勒·萨皮罗解释道。她研究诺贝尔奖作为一个全球性机构，如何影响文学的国际流通、文坛权力动态及翻译市场。
"The list can reach 200 names per year of nominated authors," explains Gisele Sapiro, research director at France's National Centre for Scientific Research. She studies how the Nobel Prize, as a global institution, influences the international circulation of literature, power dynamics in the literary world and translation markets.
“委员会也可自行增补名单，例如往年曾被提名的作家，”她说道。
"The committee can also add names itself, such as authors who were nominated in previous years," she says.
春季时，诺贝尔委员会会经过多轮筛选后确定五名候选人名单，并将其提交给瑞典文学院。整个夏季期间，文学院成员会研读这些候选人的作品并展开讨论。最终评选结果通常于10月初对外公布。
In the spring, the Nobel Committee then selects five names through a multistage process and presents them to the Academy. Over the summer, Academy members read the nominees' works and discuss them. The decision is always announced in early October.
至于文学院作出决定的评判标准——他们更倾向于将其视为内部机密。
As for the criteria the Academy uses to make its decision — it prefers to keep them to itself.
2026年的文学奖得主会是谁呢？目前博彩公司普遍认为中国作家残雪最有可能获奖。至于哪些候选人最终落选，公众要等到50年后才能知晓——文学院会等待整整半个世纪才会公布完整名单。
The 2026 laureate? Chinese author Can Xue holds the best bookmakers' odds The Nobel Prize in Literature's secret files The public doesn't learn which nominees missed out until 50 years later — that's how long the Academy waits before releasing the list.
有时，从作家首次获得提名到真正获奖需要历经数十年。1944年荣获诺贝尔文学奖的丹麦作家约翰内斯·V·延森，就等了整整40年。多丽丝·莱辛在获得2007年奖项前也等待了35年；而1929年获奖的托马斯·曼则等了27年。
Sometimes decades pass between an author's first nomination and actually receiving the prize. Danish writer Johannes V. Jensen, who won the Nobel Prize in Literature in 1944, waited 40 years. Doris Lessing received the award in 2007 after 35 years, while Thomas Mann who won in 1929, had to wait 27 years.
据文学院介绍，托马斯·曼之所以能在1929年获奖，主要归功于其小说《布登勃洛克一家》；这部作品早在1901年便已问世。诺贝尔奖创始人阿尔弗雷德·诺贝尔在遗嘱中规定，该奖项应授予“在理想主义方向上做出最杰出贡献”的人士，这一标准自然留出了相当大的解释空间。
According to the Academy, Thomas Mann received the award in 1929 primarily for 'Buddenbrooks'; the novel had already been published in 1901 In his will, Alfred Nobel, the founder of the prize, stipulated that it should be awarded to the person who had produced "the most outstanding work in an idealistic direction." That leaves plenty of room for interpretation.
据吉泽尔·萨皮罗介绍，文学院旨在表彰那些具有开创性且影响力深远的文学作品，比如能够催生全新文学流派的著作。“与此同时，这些作品还必须具备普世价值，能够超越特定文化背景的局限，”她说道。
According to Gisele Sapiro, the Academy's aim is to honor ambitious, influential literature that has, for example, given rise to a new literary movement. "At the same time, the work has to be universal, being able to transcend their own culture," she says.
翻译情况可以作为一个参考指标。萨皮罗解释道：“不过我在研究中发现，自1990年以来所有获奖作家的作品都曾被翻译成英文、法文和德文，唯独阿卜杜勒拉扎克·古尔纳除外——这位坦桑尼亚裔英国作家是2021年诺贝尔奖得主，他在获奖前并无德文译本。由此我认为这三种语言最为重要。”萨皮罗还指出，如果候选人曾获得过其他重要文学奖项，比如国际布克奖、塞万提斯奖或毕希纳奖，也会是一项显著优势。
Translations can be one indication of this. "I noted in my research, however, that all the laureates since 1990 had been translated into English, French and German," Sapiro explains, "except for Abdulrazak Gurnah [Editorial note: the Tanzanian-British 2021 Nobel laureate], who had not been translated into German before winning. Meaning that I think these three languages are the most important." Sapiro says it is also a major advantage if nominees have already won other major literary awards, such as the International Man Booker Prize the Cervantes Prize or the Büchner Prize.
任何文学体裁均符合参评资格，政治因素同样可能影响瑞典文学院的决策。
Any genre is eligible Politics can also influence the Swedish Academy's decisions.
该奖项曾多次颁给公开反对本国政权的作家，例如2015年的白俄罗斯作家斯韦特兰娜·阿列克谢耶维奇，她是亚历山大·卢卡申科政权的直言不讳的批评者。
On several occasions, the prize has gone to writers who openly opposed the regimes in their home countries, such as Belarusian writer Svetlana Alexievich in 2015. She is an outspoken critic of Alexander Lukashenko.
不过文学体裁本身并无限制。过往的获奖者不仅有小说家，也有诗人与剧作家。2016年，创作型歌手鲍勃·迪伦更因歌词创作而获此殊荣。
Genre, on the other hand, does not matter. In the past, laureates have been honored not only for novels but also for poetry and plays. In 2016, singer-songwriter Bob Dylan received the prize for his song lyrics.
迄今为止，122位获奖者中仅有33人来自欧洲以外地区。性别比例也存在明显失衡现象：直到近八年，获奖者才开始男女交替出现，女性占比才得以显著提升至14.9%。本文原以德文撰写。为何斯蒂芬·金永远无法获得诺贝尔奖 欲观看此视频，请
So far, only 33 of the 122 laureates have come from outside Europe. There is also a clear gender imbalance. Only in the past eight years have men and women alternated as winners, significantly increasing women's share of the total number of laureates — to 14.9%. This article was originally written in German. Why Stephen King will never win a Nobel Prize To view this video , and