这不仅仅是柴油的问题。特朗普政府对卡车司机的监管打压正在加剧运输成本的飙升。
It's not just diesel. The Trump administration's regulatory clampdown on truckers is adding to surging transportation costs.
为什么这很重要：卡车运输是价格冲击在经济体中传导的主要途径之一。
Why it matters: Trucking is a major way that price shocks get transmitted through the economy.
可用的司机有限可能会放大燃油成本上涨的影响，目前柴油平均每加仑6.32美元，比去年上涨了超过70%。
And limits on available drivers could amplify the impact of the spike in fuel costs, with diesel now averaging $6.32 a gallon — up over 70% from last year.
最新情况：美国供应管理协会（ISM）周一公布的9月服务部门调查结果中，"采购价格"部分再次录得高温值（74），显示系统内仍在累积的价格压力。（高于50表示价格上涨；低于50表示价格下跌。）这是自新冠疫情以来自2022年7月以来最高的价格读数。供应链经理调查中的反馈充满了运输相关的抱怨。
The latest: The "prices paid" component of the September services reading from the Institute for Supply Management released Mondayed another sizzling reading (74), indicating still-building price pressure in the system. (Above 50 indicates rising prices; below 50 indicates falling.) That's the highest reading on prices since July 2022 amid the post-COVID inflation. Chatter from the survey of supply chain managers was chock-full of transportation-related complaints.
在言外之意：大多数是关于柴油的。但卡车行业的高管和分析人士也指出了卡车司机能力的减少——他们将其归咎于特朗普政府的打压。
Between the lines: Most were about diesel. But trucking industry executives and analysts have also pointed to a reduction in truck driver capacity — which they attribute to the Trump administration's crackdown.
快速了解：2025年4月，特朗普总统签署了行政令，概述了政府显著加强对卡车司机联邦英语要求执法的计划。
Catch up quick: In April 2025, President Trump issued an executive order outlining the administration's plan to significantly ramp up enforcement of federal English-language requirements for drivers.
2026年3月，交通部的商业卡车子机构正式实施了非居住商业驾驶执照的新许可要求。
In March 2026, the DOT's commercial trucking subagency put new licensing requirements for non-domiciled commercial driver's licenses into force.
这些规则限制了几类非公民或非永久居民——如难民、寻求庇护者或大多数其他持有工作许可的临时移民——获得或续签这些驾驶执照。
The rules limited several categories of non-citizens or non-permanent residents — such as refugees, asylum seekers or most other temporary immigrants with work permits — from getting or renewing these licenses.
惊人的数据：交通部的联邦汽车承运安全管理局估计，市场上拥有非居住商业驾驶执照（CDL）的人数约为200,000人。这占全国380万名州际CDL持有者的约5%。
Stunning stat: The DOT's Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration estimates that there are roughly 200,000 people with non-domiciled CDLs in the market. That's roughly 5% of the 3.8 million interstate CDL holders in the country.
FMCSA预计其中大约194，000人将“退出货运市场。“他们在说什么：物流公司RXO首席战略官贾里德·韦斯菲尔德（Jared Weisfeld）在8月份财报后告诉分析师：“在联邦执法行动和更严格的安全规则的推动下，供应方面已经大幅收紧。”
The FMCSA expects roughly 194,000 of them to "exit the freight market." What they're saying: "The supply side has tightened materially, driven by federal enforcement actions and stricter safety rules," Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer of logistics firm RXO, told analysts after its August earnings.
卡车运输公司施耐德国家（Schneider National）首席执行官詹姆斯·过滤（James Filter）7月下旬对分析师表示：“供应流失的速度比我们最初预期的要快，并且正在从市场上消除最不合理的产能。”
"Supply attrition has been faster than we initially expected and is removing the most irrational capacity from the marketplace," James Filter, the CEO of trucking firm Schneider National, told analysts in late July.
是的，但是：对于卡车运输公司来说，供应问题和更高的柴油价格可能会创造机会向客户收取更高的运费。
Yes, but: For trucking companies, the supply issues and higher diesel could create opportunities to charge their customers higher shipping rates.
高盛（Goldman Sachs）卡车运输分析师上月写道：“随着监管执法的持续进行，卡车有效运力的减少正在提高（卡车装载）费率，如果货运需求发生更有意义的变化，费率可能会继续提高。”另一方面：投资者似乎不那么乐观。
"With the ongoing regulatory enforcement, reduced effective capacity in truckload is improving [truck-load] rates, and rates could continue to improve, should freight demand inflect more meaningfully," Goldman Sachs trucking analysts wrote last month. The other side: Investors seem slightly less sanguine.
HH的股份罗宾逊全球周一宣布以58亿美元现金和股票收购RXO后，股价暴跌，这表明投资者对在该行业大举押注持怀疑态度。
Shares of C.H. Robinson Worldwide tanked Monday, after the announcement of its $5.8 billion cash-and-stock acquisition of RXO, suggesting that investors are leery of betting big on the industry.
底线：从推动卡车运输监管到伊朗战争导致的柴油价格飙升，美国政府的行动仍然是创造更高价格的一个重要因素，对于一些卡车运输公司来说，至少目前是额外的利润。
The bottom line: From the trucking regulation push to the Iran war-driven diesel price surge, the U.S. government's actions continue to be a big factor in creating higher prices, and for some trucking companies, additional profits, at least for now.