作者：乔纳森·比尔美国和以色列与伊朗的战争表明：即便是最先进的防空系统，在面对大量来袭导弹和无人机时也难免力不从心。
By Jonathan Beale America and Israel's war with Iran has shown that even the world's most sophisticated air defences can be overwhelmed by enemy missiles and drones, if fired in significant numbers.
伊朗的导弹成功突破了中东地区美军基地的多层防空网，造成了严重破坏。
Iran's have broken through the layered air defences of US military bases in the Middle-East causing significant damage.
俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争中同样暴露出在大规模攻击下保卫领空的巨大难度。
Russia's war in Ukraine has also exposed the huge challenge of defending their own skies from large-scale attacks.
英国政府于2025年发布的《战略防御评估报告》明确警示了英国所面临的威胁——包括弹道导弹、巡航导弹及无人机——并强调英国亟需加大对防空系统的投入。工党政府计划拨款最多10亿英镑用于此目的。
The government's Strategic Defence Review, published in 2025, explicitly warned of the threats to the UK – including ballistic and cruise missiles and drones – and highlighted the need for the UK to invest more in its air defences. The Labour government is allocating up to £1bn to address it.
保守党则承诺在未来十年内投入100亿英镑。两党均认同英国需要构建多层次的防空体系。
The Conservatives now say they will spend more - £10 bn - over a decade. Both parties agree that the UK needs layers of air defences.
目前，英国已拥有多套用于应对短程及中程威胁的防御系统，可拦截无人机与巡航导弹。然而，军方仍缺乏能够抵御远程弹道导弹及高超音速导弹的武器系统。
Currently the country has a number of systems to deal with short and medium-range threats – from drones to cruise missiles. But the armed forces still lack a weapons system to deal with long-range ballistic and hypersonic missiles.
此类先进防御系统的造价极为昂贵：美国“爱国者”导弹系统所使用的每一枚拦截弹成本约为400万美元（约合300万英镑）。
And those don't come cheap. Each interceptor used by the US Patriot missile system costs about $4m (£3m). Sophisticated air defences that can deal with a range of threats are expensive.
仅美国陆军便计划明年将导弹及拦截弹采购预算提高四倍，达到360亿美元（约合271亿英镑）。
The US Army alone wants to increase its budget for both missiles and interceptors by fourfold next year – to $36bn (£27.1bn).
以色列每年在防空领域的投入也占其450亿美元（约合339亿英镑）军费预算的相当大比例。
Israel also spends a significant proportion of its $45bn (£33.9bn) annual military budget on air defences.
对保守党而言，还存在一个宣传层面的问题：其最初的新闻稿提及要打造一套“本质上相当于英国版‘铁穹系统’”的新防空体系，暗指以色列的先进防空网络。
For the Conservatives there's also a presentation problem. Their original press release mentioned building a new air defence systems that would be "in essence, a British Iron Dome", referencing Israel's elaborate air defence system.
然而，将国土面积仅为英国10%的以色列与英国的防空挑战相提并论，实在是不切实际。
But any comparison of the challenge of defending Britain's skies with Israel's, about 10% the size of the UK, is naive.
威胁程度也截然不同。过去十年间，以色列频频遭到无人机和导弹袭击，而英国则没有遭遇过此类情况。
Nor is the threat the same. Israel has regularly been targeted by drones and missiles over the past decade. The UK has not.
如今保守党称，“铁穹系统”这一说法不过是用来指代更完善的防空体系的一种简称罢了。但即便是“不列颠盾牌”这一名称，也可能名不副实。
The Conservatives now suggest the phrase "Iron Dome" was just a shorthand for better air defences. But even the words "Britannia Shield" may be a misnomer.
以英国现有的有限资源，要开发出能保护全国的防空系统几乎是不可能的。
It would be nigh on impossible for the UK to develop an air-defence system that could defend the whole country with such limited resources.
充其量，英国只能负担得起一套用于保护部分关键战略要地——包括军事基地——的防御系统。而目前英国甚至连这样的系统都还没有。
At best it could afford a system to protect some key strategic sites – including military bases. At present the UK doesn't even have that.