
安德烈·诺尔 2026年10月6日总理勒科恩承诺改善学校,同时政府试图节省数十亿欧元。法国面临的困境在整个欧盟都可见到:当公民要求国家提供更多服务时,如何削减开支?
Andreas Noll October 6, 2026 Prime Minister Lecornu is pledging to improve schools at a time when the government seeks to save billions. France's dilemma can be seen across the EU: How to cut spending when citizens are demanding more from the state?
在巴黎索菲·热尔曼中学外的抗议者们:法国学生们要求改善学校条件,同时政府试图节省数十亿欧元。法国总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科恩周末显然不太平静。几乎两个星期来,法国各地的学生们一直在抗议,他们对课程取消、教室拥挤以及学校建筑陈旧感到愤怒。这些抗议活动日益被与警察的严重冲突所掩盖。
Protesters outside the Lycee Sophie Germain in Paris: French students are calling for better conditions in schools as the government seeks to save billions France’s Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu is unlikely to have had a quiet weekend. For almost two weeks, students across France have been protesting, angered by class cancellations, overcrowded classrooms and run-down school buildings. The protests have increasingly been overshadowed by serious clashes with police.
与此同时,政府指责左翼党派"法国在诉" (LFI)将抗议活动用于政治目的并煽动封锁行动。
At the same time, the government accuses the left-wing party La France Insoumise (LFI) of exploiting the protests for political purposes and fueling the blockades.
周五,教育部长埃杜阿尔·热弗雷试图通过会见学生代表来缓解紧张局势,但未能成功。
On Friday, Education Minister Edouard Geffray tried to ease tensions by meeting with student representatives. It was unsuccessful.
取而代之的是,周二举行了一次全国性的抗议活动。总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科恩(左)和教育部长埃杜阿尔·热弗雷都面临着日益增大的压力,因为学生抗议活动仍在继续。
Instead, a nationwide day of protest took place on Tuesday Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu (left) and Education Minister Edouard Geffray both face increasing pressure as student protests continue On Sunday evening, the prime minister took charge of the crisis.
周日晚上,总理接管了这场危机。勒科恩在给几位部长的信件中呼吁提出具体建议:课程取消问题应得到更快的解决,学校建筑应得到升改以适应更热的夏季,以及有争议的大学入学系统"帕尔库尔苏普"(Parcoursup)应变得更加透明。
In a letter to several ministers, Lecornu called for concrete proposals: Class cancellations should be addressed more quickly, school buildings should be upgraded to cope with hotter summers, and the controversial university admissions system "Parcoursup" should become more transparent.
预计将于本月宣布初步决定、资金安排和时间表。但马克龙的盟友勒科恩面临一个关键问题:他必须向年轻人承诺更多的政府支持,同时他的政府正对整个国家实施紧缩预算。
Initial decisions, along with funding and a timetable, are expected to be announced this month. But Macron's ally Lecornu faces one key problem: He has to promise young people more government support while his government is imposing an austerity budget on the entire country.
向市场发出的信号上周四,政府向议会提交了2027年预算提案。预计预算赤字将从今年预计占经济产出的5.4%降至2027年的5%。为了弥补缺口,政府计划削减价值数十亿欧元的支出。法国已经受到欧盟过度赤字程序的约束,预计将将其预算缺口拉回欧盟制定的3%上限法国学生抗议活动:学校因骚乱加剧而关闭观看这段视频,“这是一项紧缩预算,”路德维希堡法德研究所(dfi)的艾琳·凯勒(Eileen Keller)说道。
A signal to the markets Last Thursday, the government submitted its 2027 budget proposal to parliament. The budget deficit is expected to fall from a projected 5.4 % of economic output this year to 5% in 2027. To make up the shortfall, the government plans to make spending cuts worth billions of euros. France is already subject to an EU excessive deficit procedure and is expected to bring its budget gap back toward the 3% limit set by the European Union Student protests in France: Schools shut as unrest grows To view this video , and "It is an austerity budget," says Eileen Keller of the Franco-German Institute (dfi) in Ludwigsburg.
与此同时,该草案也是向金融市场发出的信号。政府希望表明“它正在承担责任”,并为减少赤字铺平道路。
At the same time, the draft is a signal to the financial markets. The government wants to show "that it is taking responsibility" and lay out a path toward reducing the deficit.
预算尚未获得多数政府计划削减国家本身、地方和地区当局以及社会部门的支出。总体而言,巴黎的目标是比之前预计的支出计划减少约540亿欧元(608亿美元)的预算。仅养老金一项预计就可节省约55亿欧元,医疗保健方面还计划进行更多削减。
No majority in sight for the budget The government plans to cut spending by the state itself, local and regional authorities, as well as in the social sector. Overall, Paris aims to reduce the budget by around €54 billion ($60.8 billion) compared with previously projected spending plans. Pensions alone are expected to make savings to the tune of around €5.5 billion, and more cuts are also planned in healthcare.
目前,法国议会对紧缩预算没有获得多数席位,预算是否会以当前形式通过仍是未知数。勒科努政府在议会中没有多数席位,依赖反对派选票。但随着明年春天总统选举的到来,紧缩预算对反对派的吸引力甚至不如以前。
There is currently no majority in the French parliament for the austerity budget Whether the budget will actually be passed in its current form is still wide open. Lecornu's government does not have a parliamentary majority and relies on opposition votes. But with presidential elections coming next spring, an austerity budget is even less attractive to the opposition than it would otherwise be.
为学校提供更多资金--以及更多抗议活动教育问题特别表明,法国的问题不能归结为“国家削减太多”的公式。“2027年教育预算将增加约12亿欧元。与此同时,政府预计到2035年学童将减少约170万。
More money for schools — and more protests The issue of education in particular shows that France's problem cannot be reduced to the formula "The state is cutting too much." The education budget is set to increase by around €1.2 billion in 2027. At the same time, the government expects around 1.7 million fewer schoolchildren by 2035.
许多年轻人对教育系统的状况感到愤怒。对凯勒来说,这种矛盾表明,钱只是问题的一部分。公众的不满与她所说的“优先事项”和教育系统的根本方向有关,包括从学校到高等教育的过渡。
Many young people are angry about the state of the education system For Keller, this contradiction shows that money is only part of the problem. Public dissatisfaction is linked to what she calls "priorities" and the fundamental direction of the education system, including the transition from school to higher education.
教育融资成本越来越高法国的艰难前景因另一个因素而复杂化:金融市场。多年来,法国习惯于以相对较低的利率为其高额债务融资。但那些日子已经结束了。最近几周,10年期法国政府债券收益率大幅上升。有时,与德国政府债券的利差扩大至1.5个百分点左右,为2010年代欧元债务危机以来的最高水平。商业日报《回声报》周一刊登了头条新闻,称该国正处于“旋风眼”。
Financing education is getting more costly The difficult outlook for France is compounded by another factor: the financial markets. For many years, France was used to financing its high levels of debt at relatively low interest rates. But those days are over. The yield on 10-year French government bonds has risen sharply in recent weeks. At times, the spread over German government bonds widened to around 1.5 percentage points, the highest level since the euro debt crisis in the 2010s. The business daily Les Echos ran the headline on Monday that the country was in the "eye of the cyclone."
“市场怀疑情绪在特别困难的时刻袭击了法国。法国债务占经济产出的119%左右,负债率几乎是德国的两倍,德国的债务率约为64%。
Market skepticism is hitting France at a particularly difficult time. With debt at around 119% of economic output, France is almost twice as heavily indebted as Germany, whose debt ratio stands at around 64%.
法国金融中心:该部门负责监督国家预算并管理国家高债务的融资。一步一步地,以极低利率发行的旧政府债券越来越多地不得不被新的、更昂贵的债务所取代。其影响在2027年预算中清晰可见。估计约为740亿欧元,政府用于利息支付的支出将超过其用于学校或国防的支出。据财政部长罗兰·莱斯丘(Roland Lescure)称,利息支付已经消耗了总预算赤字的一半以上。
France's financial center: This ministry oversees the state budget and manages the financing of the country's high debt Step by step, old government bonds that were issued at very low interest rates are increasingly having to be replaced with new and more expensive debt. The effects of this are clearly visible in the 2027 budget. Estimated around €74 billion, the government will have to spend more on its interest payments than it can afford to spend on schools or defense. According to Finance Minister Roland Lescure, interest payments already consume more than half of the overall budget deficit.
凯勒强调,因此,法国继续被投资者视为“可信的债务国”至关重要。“然而,如今,这种可信度不仅仅取决于经济数据。
Keller stresses that it is therefore crucial that France continues to be seen by investors as a "credible debtor." These days, however, that credibility depends on more than just economic data.
市场密切关注竞选活动2027年春季,法国将选出新总统。凯勒表示:“竞选活动现在愈演愈烈,正在受到金融市场的关注。”在对dfi的分析中,她认为财政整顿的需求在750亿至1600亿欧元之间,具体取决于计算结果。
Markets keeping a close eye on election campaigns In spring 2027, the French will elect a new president. "The election campaign, which is now gaining intensity, is being watched by the financial markets," Keller says. In an analysis for the dfi, she puts the need for fiscal consolidation at between €75 billion and €160 billion, depending on the calculation.
从市场的角度来看,就国家需要勒紧裤腰带达成政治共识将是有帮助的。但目前还没有明确的迹象。未来如何分担负担反而可能成为竞选活动的核心问题。
From the markets' perspective, political consensus on the need for the nation to tighten its belt would be helpful. But, at present, there is no sign of clarity. How the burden will be shared in the future is instead likely to become a central issue in the election campaign.
具有欧洲层面的法国问题法国是一个特别尖锐的案例。但许多其他欧洲国家目前也在努力解决财政整顿问题以及如何为国家融资问题。欧洲希望在国防上投入更多资金,实现基础设施现代化和向可再生能源过渡。与此同时,公民仍然期望一定的教育、养老金和医疗保健标准。
A French problem with a European dimension France is an especially acute case. But many other European countries are also currently grappling with fiscal consolidation and how to finance the state. Europe wants to spend more on defense modernizing its infrastructure and transitioning to renewable energy sources At the same time, citizens still expect a certain standard of education, pensions and healthcare.
学生抗议活动越来越被暴力所掩盖。这些标志在包括巴黎沃奎林中学在内的许多学校都可见。在法国,这场冲突几乎可以实时观察到。问题不仅在于政府能否回应年轻人的需求,还在于政府能否避免进一步的暴力行为。在巴黎,许多人对新的广泛社会运动的前景持谨慎态度,比如过去的黄背心抗议活动。对于总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科努来说,未来几天将是一次重大考验。
Student protests are increasingly being overshadowed by violence. The signs are visible at many schools including the Lycee Vauquelin in Paris In France, this conflict can be observed almost in real time. The issue is not only whether the government can respond to the demands of young people, but also whether it can avoid further violence. In Paris, many are wary of the prospect of a new broad-based social movement, like the Yellow Vests protests of the past. For Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu, the coming days will be a major test.