"哥斯拉"。"超级"。"非常强大"。形容正在季节性太平洋海域形成的厄尔尼诺模式的夸张词汇并不缺。许多地区都面临严重后果。迄今为止，数据仍在支持这些夸大之词。今年秋天，太平洋热带地区的海面温度达到了创纪录的水平，这表明这种模式仍在加强。
“Godzilla.”“Super.”“Very strong.”There’s no shortage of superlatives to describe the El Niño pattern brewing in the tropical Pacific Ocean, with grave consequences expected in many corners of the world. So far, data continues to back up the hype. Sea surface temperatures have spiked to record levels in the tropical Pacific this fall, a sign that the pattern continues to strengthen.
在通常用于衡量厄尔尼诺趋势的区域，温度比正常时高出6.1华氏度。国家海洋和大气管理局在其最新报告中表示，该模式正在加强，预计本秋冬出现"非常强烈的事件"的可能性达到90%，成为自1950年以来最大的历史性厄尔尼诺事件的可能性为75%。
In the region where the El Niño trend is typically measured, temperatures are 6.1 degrees Fahrenheit higher than normal. In its latest update, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency said the pattern was strengthening and that there was a 90% chance of a “very strong event” this fall and winter, with a 75% chance of becoming a historic event larger than any El Niño since 1950.
NOAA用于描述厄尔尼诺的指数数据显示，本季事件在7月至9月期间排名第二大的异常值，即便不考虑全球变暖对温度的影响也如此。
The index data NOAA uses to characterize El Niño suggests this season’s event is the second-biggest anomaly on record for the months of July through September, even when the influence of global warming on temperatures is not factored into the equation.
克拉克大学地理学教授气候学家阿比·弗拉齐说："超级厄尔尼诺似乎是恰当的描述。"
“It feels like super El Niño is appropriate,” said Abby Frazier, a climatologist and professor of geography at Clark University.
儿童援助组织联合国儿童基金会周二表示，其分析认为数亿儿童可能面临因这种气候模式引发的危险情况，导致一些地区出现强降水，而其他地区出现干旱。
The children’s aid organization UNICEF on Tuesday said its analysis suggests hundreds of millions of children could be exposed to dangerous conditions as a result of the climate pattern, which raises the risk of intense precipitation in some areas and drought in others.
联合国儿童基金会执行主任凯瑟琳·罗素说："在预计将有超过3.47亿儿童生活在因厄尔尼诺而可能出现干旱或湿润条件的地区，我们必须立即采取行动保护社区和儿童。"她还补充说，厄尔尼诺可能会加剧水资源短缺、营养不良和疾病爆发。
“With over 347 million children living in areas expected to experience drier or wetter conditions because of El Niño, we must act now to protect communities and children,” UNICEF executive director Catherine Russell said, adding that El Niño was expected to increase water shortages, malnutrition and disease outbreaks.
芝加哥大学气候影响实验室估计，厄尔尼诺将足以提升全球平均温度，导致全球出现451,000例超热死亡。
The University of Chicago’s Climate Impacts Lab estimates that El Niño will raise global average temperatures enough to cause 451,000 excess-heat deaths worldwide.
埃尔尼诺是一种自然气候模式，当靠近赤道的风力减弱和东太平洋海面上升的冷水上升作用停止时，就会出现这种模式。这种模式通常会提高全球平均温度，引发美国西海岸的海洋热浪，并减弱大西洋飓风季。埃尔尼诺与东南部地区的强降雨和风暴有关，以及太平洋西北部的温暖天气，这可能会剥夺该地区的积雪和水资源。
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that happens when winds near the equator slacken and the upwelling of cold water to the surface of the eastern Pacific Ocean stalls. The pattern typically drives up global average temperatures, causes marine heat waves off the U.S. West Coast and dampens the Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño is associated with intense rainfall and storms in the Southeast and warm conditions in the Pacific Northwest that can rob the region of its snowpack and water supply.
科学家们预计埃尔尼诺将袭击美国西海岸，引起异常的海滩侵蚀，因为风暴正朝着岸边发送强浪，而海平面已经上升，因为沿岸水域比平时 warmer，从而占据更多的空间。埃尔尼诺的影响在冬季最为明显，因为它经常改变喷射气流的正常流动，喷射气流是环绕北半球的高空气流，驱动天气模式。埃尔尼诺通常会把喷射气流推向南方，打乱天气模式。
Scientists expect El Niño to batter the U.S. West Coast and cause unusual beach erosion, because storms are sending strong waves toward the shore, where sea levels are already rising because coastal waters are warmer than usual and therefore taking up more space. El Niño’s influence is most obvious in the winter, because it often shifts the normal flow of the jet stream, the high-altitude air current that encircles the Northern Hemisphere and drives weather patterns. El Niño usually pushes the jet stream southward, scrambling weather patterns.
一些地区可能会遭受旱灾；其他地区则可能被极端降雨和洪水所淹没。弗雷泽说：“现在是准备一些地点的用水限制的时候了，也要关注其他地点的降雨预报。”预计这些影响将通过农业经济体传播——像大米、咖啡和巧克力这样的商品可能会受到影响，因为种植条件受到影响。弗雷泽说：“这可能会通过供应链及其他方面产生级联影响，因此可能会影响我们在杂货店购买食物的价格。”
Some regions will likely suffer drought; others will be deluged with extreme rainfall and flooding. Now is the time to prepare for water restrictions in some locations and to watch rainfall forecasts in others, Frazier said. Expect those effects to ripple through agricultural economies — goods like rice, coffee and chocolate could be affected as growing conditions are affected. “This could have cascading impacts through supply chains and other things, so it could impact the prices that we pay in the grocery store for some of our food,” Frazier said.
埃尔尼诺的存在迹象越来越明显。美国经历了历史上相对平静的大西洋飓风季，而强大的飓风在太平洋上肆掠，受到暖水的推动。弗雷泽说：“今年形成和影响的风暴数量，尤其是对夏威夷的影响，真是太惊人了。”
The signs of El Niño’s presence are growing more plain. The U.S. had a historically mellow Atlantic hurricane season, while powerful hurricanes raced across the Pacific, fueled by warm seas. “The number of storms that have formed and have impacted, especially Hawaii, has been really incredible this year,” Frazier said.
与此同时，一些罕见的海洋生物——包括鲸鲨、海蛇以及正在筑巢的海龟——相继出现在加利福尼亚海岸附近，其出现位置比通常水温所能允许的范围更偏北。今年初夏，NASA的卫星观测数据还显示，赤道附近的海面高度有所上升，这一现象表明海水温度正在升高且体积也在膨胀。
Meanwhile, unusual marine species — including whale sharks, sea snakes and nesting turtles — have been spotted off the California coast, farther north than what water temperatures typically allow. And earlier this summer, NASA satellites could tell that the height of seas had actually grown taller near the equator, a sign that the ocean water was growing warmer and expanding in volume.