2026年6月，赤道附近的太平洋海表温度就已经异常偏高，这是厄尔尼诺现象正在发展的迹象。从那时起，温度只持续升高。
In June 2026, Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures around the equator were already abnormally warm, an indicator of a developing El Niño. Since then, they've only increased.
美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的联邦预报员表示，今年地球可能会遭遇有记录以来最强的厄尔尼诺事件。它已经被称作“超级厄尔尼诺”，甚至“哥斯拉厄尔尼诺”。厄尔尼诺是一种自然气候模式，对全球影响深远，可能波及数亿人。
NOAA Satellites Federal forecasters say this year the planet could see the strongest El Niño event on record. It's already being called "Super El Niño" and even "Godzilla El Niño." El Niño is a natural climate pattern that has far-reaching impacts across the planet, potentially affecting hundreds of millions of people.
不同厄尔尼诺事件带来的影响区域可能截然不同。以下是这一历史性事件可能带来的基本影响。什么是厄尔尼诺？
Where those impacts happen can vary drastically from one El Niño to the next. Here are the basics of what this historic event could bring. What is El Niño?
厄尔尼诺每两到七年发生一次。当东太平洋赤道附近的大范围海水变暖时，厄尔尼诺现象便会形成。这些海水会释放大量热量，将海洋中的温暖重新分配到大气中，从而改变全球天气模式。
El Niño occurs every two to seven years. It develops when a vast amount of water in the eastern Pacific Ocean warms up around the equator That water releases massive heat, redistributing warmth from the ocean to the atmosphere. That shifts weather patterns around the world.
厄尔尼诺的另一面是拉尼娜现象，其特点是赤道附近热带太平洋的海水相对偏冷。这些事件导致了地球经历的一些最剧烈的天气变化。
The flip side of El Niño is a La Niña, which is marked by relatively cool water in the tropical Pacific around the equator. These events are responsible for some of the biggest weather variability the planet experiences.
威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校的大气与海洋科学教授丹尼尔·维蒙特（Daniel Vimont）说，厄尔尼诺就像在池塘里扔下一块石头。“即使你不在石头落水的地方，仍然可能会感受到那些水波的影响。”他说道，“厄尔尼诺也是如此，只不过它就像一块巨大的石头，投入了我们整个地球系统，而我们能感受到由此引发的反应。” 它有多强？
El Niño is like dropping a rock in a pond, says Daniel Vimont, professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. "Even though you're not where the rock hit, you still may feel the effects of those waves," he says. "El Niño is the same thing, except it's an enormous rock in our entire Earth's system, and we feel the response." How strong is it?
当然，“哥斯拉厄尔尼诺”这个称呼很吸引人，但从技术上讲，NOAA的预报员表示，今年的厄尔尼诺将属于“极强”级别。其强度通过南美洲附近特定海域的海水温度来衡量。海水越暖，厄尔尼诺就越强。当该区域海水温度比平均值高出2摄氏度以上时，就符合“极强”厄尔尼诺的标准。
Sure, "Godzilla El Niño" is catchy, but technically, NOAA forecasters say this year's El Niño will fall into the "very strong" category. It's measured by the temperature of the ocean in a particular region off South America The warmer the water, the stronger the El Niño. When that water is more than 2 degrees Celsius warmer than average, it qualifies as a "very strong" El Niño.
最近一次强烈的事件发生在2015-16年、1997-98年以及1982-83年。厄尔尼诺现象通常在11月和12月达到峰值，但今年的厄尔尼诺现象已经成为同期有记录以来最强的一次。美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的预报员预计，这一现象将持续到2027年初。全球将受到哪些影响？
The last strong events were in 2015-16, 1997-8 and 1982-83. El Niños typically peak in November and December, but already, this El Niño is the strongest ever measured for this time of year. NOAA forecasters expect it to last through early 2027. What will the impacts be globally?
大气中所有这些额外的热量都会导致全球气温上升。厄尔尼诺年份通常是有记录以来最热的年份。预报员表示，今年可能接近创下最高纪录，但2027年打破温度纪录的可能性非常大。由于气候变化，地球本身已经变得更热，因为燃烧化石燃料产生的排放物在大气中捕获了更多热量。
All that added heat in the atmosphere raises temperatures globally. El Niño years tend to be the hottest on record. Forecasters say this year may get close to taking the top spot, but it's very likely that temperature records could fall in 2027. The planet is already warmer due to climate change, because emissions from burning fossil fuels are trapping more heat in the atmosphere.
厄尔尼诺现象还会改变全球的降雨模式，增加世界某些地区发生破坏性洪水的风险，而其他地区则会变得更加干旱，加剧干旱问题。这两种影响都可能对全球农业造成灾难性后果。联合国世界粮食计划署估计，到2027年底，厄尔尼诺现象可能导致至少4900万人陷入严重的粮食不安全状态。美国将受到哪些影响？
El Niño also shifts rainfall patterns globally, raising the chances for destructive flooding in some parts of the world Other regions get drier, exacerbating droughts. Both impacts can be catastrophic to agriculture around the world. The United Nations World Food Programme estimates that El Niño could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027. What will the impacts be in the U.S.?
在厄尔尼诺年份，美国南部地区通常会经历更强烈的降雨，因为急流会向南偏移。这会增加河流沿岸和城市地区的洪水风险。不过，在西南部地区，更多的降雨可能有助于缓解干旱并补充地下水层。
In El Niño years, the southern U.S. tends to see more intense rainfall because the jet stream shifts to the south. That raises the risk of floods along rivers and in cities. Still, in the Southwest, more rain could alleviate drought and recharge underground aquifers.
“厄尔尼诺现象往往会加剧这些风暴，导致出现更多强度极大的强降雨事件，”科罗拉多大学博尔德分校的气象学家兼客座讲师马丁·霍林格表示。“因此，如果你的水资源供应本就存在短缺，一次强烈的厄尔尼诺现象——尤其是像我们现在经历的这一次——真的能让你进入恢复模式，而原本可能需要数年时间才能恢复。”美国北部地区会变得更为温暖干燥，这可能会加剧目前山区西部地区的干旱状况。
"El Niño tends to juice up those storms so that you get more really strong rain events," says Martin Hoerling, meteorologist and adjunct lecturer at the University of Colorado Boulder. "So if you were running a deficit in your water supply, a big El Niño, especially like the one we're having, can really get you into recovery mode that otherwise might have taken you years." The northern half of the country gets warmer and drier, something that could exacerbate the current drought in the Intermountain West.
在厄尔尼诺现象期间，一些州的影响则各不相同，例如加利福尼亚州。该州曾在1997-98年的厄尔尼诺现象中遭遇历史性洪水，但在2015-16年期间却比平均状态更为干燥。气候专家表示，当前的厄尔尼诺现象非常强烈，因此加利福尼亚州更有可能经历极端降雨。厄尔尼诺现象还可能导致大西洋飓风减少，因为风暴更难形成。
Some states experience mixed effects during El Niños, like California. The state saw historic flooding in the 1997-98 El Niño, but was drier than average during the 2015-16 one. Climate experts say the current El Niño is so strong, it's more likely California will experience extreme rain El Niños can also lead to fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, since it's more difficult for the storms to form. In the Pacific Ocean, hurricanes can get more frequent, fueled by warmer ocean water.
而在太平洋地区，飓风可能会更加频繁，因为更温暖的海水为其提供了能量。今年，太平洋地区的飓风已经迅速增强，夏威夷也多次与带来破坏性风雨的飓风擦肩而过。我们能否将所有问题都归咎于厄尔尼诺现象呢？
Already this year, hurricanes have intensified rapidly in the Pacific, and Hawaii has had close calls with several hurricanes that brought destructive rain and wind Can we blame it all on El Niño? Certain weather changes are common during El Niños, but there are no guarantees that extreme weather events this winter will match those predictions for every region. "El Niño is like loading the dice," Vimont says.
某些天气变化在厄尔尼诺现象期间确实较为常见，但并不能保证今年冬季的极端天气事件在所有地区都会与预测完全一致。
"While we're loading the dice for a certain type of response from El Niño, we still know that in any given year, there are still natural fluctuations that may mask that or cause the response to be slightly different than what we might expect." In addition to that natural variability, weather events are also being affected by climate change.
“厄尔尼诺现象就像下注一样，”维蒙说。“虽然我们正在为厄尔尼诺现象的某种类型反应下注，但我们仍然知道，在任何特定年份，仍然存在自然波动，这些波动可能会掩盖这一点，或者导致反应与我们预期的略有不同。“除了自然变化之外，天气事件也受到气候变化的影响。最强烈的风暴已经在美国大部分地区带来了更多降雨，因为温暖的大气层可以容纳更多的水蒸气。由于气温上升，热浪和干旱也变得更加严重。气候专家表示，厄尔尼诺现象和气候变化的影响都将在今年冬天显现，但虽然厄尔尼诺现象将会消退，但气候变化的影响将持续下去。气候变化厄尔尼诺现象
The most intense storms are already producing more rainfall in most of the U.S., since a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor. Heat waves and droughts are also getting more intense due to rising temperatures. Climate experts say El Niño and climate change impacts will both play out this winter, but while El Niño will fade, the effects of climate change will continue. climate change el niño