
距离中期选举还有28天,民调显示民主党在11月夺回众议院控制权的机会很大。翻转参议院曾被视为渺茫之举,如今开始显得切合实际。到了11月,该党可能在两院都拥有多数席位,这将赋予其比唐纳德·特朗普总统任期前半段大得多的筹码。
With 28 days until the midterms, polling suggests that Democrats have an excellent chance of taking back the House in November. Flipping the Senate, once considered a long shot, is starting to look realistic. Come November, the party may have majorities in both chambers that will give it far more leverage than in the first half of this Donald Trump presidency.
然而,如果选民把权力交给他们,民主党将如何行使?由于特朗普仍在白宫,他们的立法选择将受到限制,但党领导层已暗示将聚焦于物价负担、医疗保健以及对特朗普政府的调查。
If voters entrust them with power, though, how will Democrats use it? Their legislative options will be limited, with Trump still in the White House, but party leadership has gestured at a platform focusing on affordability, healthcare, and investigations into the Trump administration.
尽管如此,许多细节仍然缺失——据Puck News国会记者马里安娜·索托马约尔称,这是蓄意为之。正如索托马约尔所解释的,来自纽约的众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯(极有可能成为下一任众议长)希望在选举前展现统一战线,这意味着不会为政策的混乱细节发生内讧。真正的工作要等他们拿下众议院后才能开始。
Still, many of the particulars are missing — which Puck News congressional correspondent Marianna Sotomayor says is by design. As Sotomayor explains, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the likely next speaker of the House, will want to present a unified front ahead of the election, which means no infighting over the messy details of policy. The real work can start after they take the House.
为了深入剖析这一切,《Today, Explained》联合主持人肖恩·拉梅斯瓦拉姆与索托马约尔进行了对话,探讨民主党在中期选举前的心态、杰弗里斯出任众议长的前景,以及民主党的待办清单。
To break it all down, Today, Explained co-host Sean Rameswaram spoke with Sotomayor about how Democrats are feeling ahead of the midterms, the prospect of a Speaker Jeffries, and the Democratic to-do list.
以下是他们对话的节选,经编辑删减以求简明。完整播客内容更多,那么众议院内部对这些中期选举的氛围如何?
Below is an excerpt of their conversation, edited for length and clarity. There’s much more in the full podcast, so What are the vibes in the House around these midterms?
如果你问民主党人,目前的氛围好得不可思议。如果非要说有什么担忧,那就是民主党人自己在互相提醒:“别把今晚会有多精彩这事儿吹得太厉害。”说实话,在我跟策略师、议员、以及竞选者的大量交谈中,问题已经不再是“民主党能否夺回众议院多数派?”,而是“民主党将夺回众议院多数派。这个多数派会有多大?”
The vibes, if you ask Democrats, are incredibly strong. If anything, it’s mostly Democrats trying to tell each other, “Don’t oversell how amazing of a night we’re going to have.”Genuinely, in the number of conversations that I’ve been having with strategists, lawmakers, those seeking office themselves, the question isn’t, “Will Democrats flip the House majority?” anymore. It’s “Democrats will flip the House majority. How big is that majority going to be?”
他们想要在特朗普优势很大的选区竞争,而且他们已经在特朗普领先5个百分点、10个百分点的选区(即特朗普在2024年赢下的选区)这么做了。现在他们在说:“那特朗普领先21个百分点的选区呢?”有些人则说:“哇,哇,哇,各位,别太兴奋了”,因为大家多少都对2022年中期选举留下了心理阴影——那是共和党最终夺下众议院的时候。
They want to play in deep Trump districts, and they’ve been doing that in Trump +5, Trump +10 districts that he won in ’24. Now they’re like, “What about Trump +21 districts?”And some people are like, “Whoa, whoa, whoa, guys, let’s not get too overly excited” because everybody kind of has some PTSD from the ’22 midterms — that’s when Republicans ended up taking up the House.
[在2022年],共和党当时也处于同样的境地,他们在说:“哦我的天,我们要翻30多个席位。”结果他们只获得了5个席位的微弱多数。我们看到了那个多数派给共和党带来多大的困难,坦白说,这种困难一直延续至今。
[In 2022], Republicans were in the same place around this time where they were like, “Oh my gosh, we’re going to flip 30-plus seats.”And then they only gained a five-seat majority. And we saw how difficult that [majority] was for Republicans, and frankly, it continues to be.
你本以为民主党会试图推销自己,主打“如果我们夺回众议院和参议院,我们要做什么”。但我没怎么听到这种说法。如果这个党夺回众议院,他们的优先事项是什么?
You would think that the Democrats would be trying to sell themselves based on, “Here’s what we’re going to do if we flip the House and the Senate.”But I don’t hear a ton of that. What are this party’s priorities if they take back the House?
你完全说到了点子上。这多少有点模糊。民主党肯定会辩解说,不,我们很具体。当然,我们知道如果他们拿下多数派,有三大支柱,这是杰弗里斯甚至一年前就提出来的,[参议院少数党领袖]舒默某种程度上也采纳了这些支柱。他们想要解决负担能力、医疗保健和腐败问题。
You’re totally spot-on. It’s more or less vague. I’m sure Democrats would argue, no, we’re being really specific. And sure, we do know that if they take the majority, there’s three planks, and this is what Jeffries outlined even a year ago, and [Senate Minority Leader Chuck] Schumer, to some extent, has also adopted these planks. They want to tackle affordability, healthcare, and corruption.
“负担得起”包含多层含义。杰弗里斯的考量是:首100小时、首100天,以及首年。我们不太清楚那100天和首年会发生什么,但在最初的100小时里,他已开始透露一些端倪。
Affordability means a number of different things. And the way that Jeffries is looking at it is you have your first 100 hours, your 100 days, and then your first year. And we don’t really know what is going to come up in those 100 days and in the first year, but within those 100 hours, he’s starting to give us some hints.
有些议题他们可以轻松、甚至非常迅速地推进。例如,因那项“宏伟美好法案”,医疗补助税收抵免将在未来几个月内到期。
There are some issues where they could easily, probably very quickly, pass. Those Medicaid tax credits that are going to expire just in the next couple of months because of the one Big Beautiful Bill, [for example].
还有腐败调查这块,多位委员会民主党议员一直在做记录。心态是:“哦,特朗普政府干了这事?好,记下来,等我们拿到多数派地位再回头清算。”
You also have the corruption part of this where a number of committee Democrats have been taking notes. It’s like, oh, the Trump admin did that?
我获悉,众议院多数派地位一旦确认,传票将很快发往政府官员、内阁成员,以及与特朗普政府关系过于密切的潜在企业。如果民主党获胜,哈基姆·杰弗里斯当选议长是否板上钉钉?从国会山内部传出的消息看,他将出任议长。
Okay, going to write that down so I can remember to circle back when we have the majority. I’ve been told to expect subpoenas to start being sent out to administration officials, to Cabinet officials, to potential corporations that have cozied up too close to the Trump administration, pretty much after the House majority is declared. Is it all but certain that Hakeem Jeffries will be Speaker if the Democrats win?
话虽如此,包括亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯、德莉亚·拉米雷斯在内的多位进步派议员,已开始游说新晋进步派议员,而这些新人对是否投票给杰弗里斯有些遮遮掩掩。
From inside of the Capitol, all that I’ve heard is that he is going to be speaker.
他们的信息是:民主党必须保持团结。我们在许多问题上意见不一,但必须团结、必须治理,而这一切的前提是先选出议长。
That being said, a number of progressives like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Delia Ramirez, a number of those members are already talking to a number of the progressives who are coming in, who are kind of being a little coy with whether they’re going to vote for Jeffries. Their message has been, look, Democrats need to stay united.
我记得南希·佩洛西在特朗普首个任期初并不想花费数年时间搞调查和弹劾,但特朗普的本质最终迫使她不得不这么做。你认为杰弗里斯从前任应对总统的方式中吸取了什么教训?
We have differences of opinions on a number of fronts, but we need to be united, we need to govern, and we can’t get to any of that until we elect a speaker. I remember Nancy Pelosi didn’t really want to spend the years of Trump’s first term investigating and impeaching, but the nature of Trump forced her to ultimately do that.
关于弹劾的问题,众议院民主党人现在的立场与过去相比,变化很有意思。我现在很少听到现任的两百多名民主党议员高呼“弹劾特朗普”。原因有二:第一,宪法规定总统只能连任两届,大家普遍认为如果他试图再次参选,最高法院大概率会裁定他不具备资格。所以没必要在这个问题上纠缠。
Do you think Jeffries has learned anything from how his predecessor approached the president? To your question about impeachment, it is fascinating to see where House Democrats are right now versus where they were back then. I do not hear “let’s impeach Trump” that much from the 200 and something Democrats that are currently in office. And the reason why is because, one, there is the thinking that, okay, the Constitution says he can only be a two-term president, and probably the Supreme Court’s going to rule that he can’t run again [if he tries].
但鉴于民主党人已经在筹划、策划各项调查,我认为我们应预期可能会出现针对内阁官员的弹劾。国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯是我听到最多的名字,因为有不少共和党人对他极其不满。
So let’s not get into that. But because Democrats are already thinking, planning, strategizing all of their investigations, I think we should expect possible impeachments against Cabinet officials. [Defense Secretary] Pete Hegseth is a name I keep hearing a lot, because there’s a number of Republicans who are incredibly upset with him.
民主党人在思考上更具战略性:如果我们要弹劾,或者真要传唤、以藐视国会罪起诉某人,在特定案件上能否获得共和党人的支持?
Democrats are thinking a little bit more strategically in terms of if we are going to impeach, or if we’re really going to try to subpoena or hold people in contempt of Congress, will we have Republicans backing us up in those certain cases?
这三大支柱——民生负担、医疗保健、追究贪腐责任——本可以成为特朗普第二任期第一、二个月的施政支柱。
These three planks — affordability, healthcare, and holding the crooks accountable — those could have been the planks in month one or month two of the second Trump term.
我想知道党团内部对过去一年左右出现的某些议题有多大推动动力。比如移民与海关执法局(ICE)、伊朗问题、在华盛顿特区周边斥资数十亿搞面子工程、在位期间利用个人名号和品牌敛财数十亿。民主党对这些近期引起强烈共鸣的议题推动力度有多大?
I wonder how much motivation there is in the caucus to take on some of the issues that have come up in the last year or so. ICE comes to mind, Iran, spending billions of dollars on vanity projects around DC, making billions of dollars off of his own name and brand while in office. How much are Democrats pushing for the issues that maybe have struck a chord more recently?
幕后其实他们一直在大力推动这些事。但据我了解,杰弗里斯不想公开任何可能显示民主党内部分歧的内容。他只想向外界传递民主党在这三大议题上团结一致的信号。
Behind the scenes, actually, they’ve been pushing those things a lot. But my understanding is that Jeffries doesn’t necessarily want to broadcast anything that could show any divisions among Democrats right now. He really just wants to project that Democrats are united on these three issues.
其他人都觉得,好吧,但我们还有太多事情要证明、要完成,而且未来还得跟共和党形成鲜明对比。据我所知,他的想法是等大选后再处理那些问题。选前根本不值得辩论,因为首先我们得赢。
Everybody else is like, okay, but there’s so many more things that we have to prove, and we should get done and we should show contrast with Republicans moving forward. And my understanding is his idea of it is we will get to those issues after the election. They’re not even worth debating pre-election because first we have to win.
没人试图粉饰太平,解决民主党内部意见不一的诸多问题有多难。大家也在讨论多数派规模如何影响这一点,对吧?因为如果多数优势更大,意味着民主党在特朗普大幅领先的选区也翻盘了。那样党团里会涌入更多中间派民主党人。如果多数优势较小,那反而能让一些进来的民主社会主义候选人拥有更强的话语权。
No one is trying to sugarcoat how hard it is going to be to tackle a number of these issues where Democrats aren’t united. And there’s conversations about how the size of the majority affects that, right? Because if you have a bigger majority, that means Democrats flip seats in districts that Trump won by a whole lot. So you’re going to get a lot more centrist Democrats in the caucus. If it’s a smaller majority, that’s really going to help a number of those Democratic socialist candidates coming in have a much stronger voice.
所有这些动态都将全面展现,而一切归根结底,又取决于十一月大选的结果。
All of those dynamics are going to be on full display and it all, again, is determinative on what happens in November.