民主党或许会在中期选举后掌控众议院，在参议院获得微弱多数，并感受到多年来一直缺失的振奋情绪。但接下来的挑战可能更为艰巨。
Democrats may come out of the midterm elections with control of the House, a small majority in the Senate and a feeling of elation they’ve been missing for years. But what comes after that may be the harder part.
即便在11月取得决定性胜利，也无法消除自2024年惨败以来困扰该党的问题——当时民主党失去了总统职位和参议院多数席位，也未能夺回众议院控制权。
Even a decisive win in November would not erase the problems that have plagued the party since its devastating losses in 2024, when Democrats lost the presidency and Senate majority and failed to win back the House.
民主党人承认，如果他们在11月取得中期选举的大胜，那将归因于特朗普总统的低支持率，以及他在伊朗战争持续期间对经济的管理，而非他们自身做出了激进变革或吸取了教训。
If they do have a big midterm win in November, it will be because of President Trump’s low approval ratings and his handling of the economy amid the ongoing war in Iran, Democrats acknowledge. It won’t be because of radical changes or lessons learned on their part.
民主党表示，尽管他们正面临党内社会主义派系与温和派系之间近年来最激烈的内部斗争，但仍试图寻找一个统一的信息，并与选民建立联系。
Democrats say their party is still trying to find a cohesive message and a connection to voters, even as they find themselves in the middle of the worst internal fight in years between the socialist and moderate flanks of the party.
这场斗争不可避免地会蔓延到2028年的民主党初选，获胜的一方实际上将决定下一位民主党总统候选人的归属，并决定该党未来的发展道路。
That fight will inevitably spill into the 2028 Democratic primary, with the winning side effectively choosing the next Democratic presidential nominee and its path going forward.
“我认为我们如何走出这场危机，将比任何事都更重要，”一位民主党捐赠者说道。“如果我们变得过于自满，觉得自己已经解决了所有问题，认为自己了解选民，选民也理解我们，那我们实际上已经输掉了下一场战斗。”
“I think the way we come out of this will matter more than anything,” one Democratic donor said. “If we come out too smug, feeling like we’ve figured everything out, feeling like we know voters and they understand us, we’ve already lost the next battle.”
“即使我们赢得大胜，仍有许多问题需要解决，”这位捐赠者补充道。“我们仍然没有清晰的认识自己是谁、主张什么，而这些问题我们必须继续寻找答案。”最近的民意调查既揭示了选民为何有动力在11月投票，也反映了他们在国会选举中的倾向。这些调查强调，此次选举的核心是特朗普，可能更多是对他以及共和党的负面反应。
“We’ve got some stuff to figure out, even if we win big,” the donor added. “We still don’t have a clear sense of who we are and what we’re for, and we’ll have to continue to figure that out.”Recent polling highlights both why voters are motivated to vote in November and their sentiments in casting votes for Congress. They underscore how this election is about Trump and may be more of a negative reaction to him and the GOP.
本周发布的一项《政治报》（Politico）民调显示，半数民主党受访者表示，如果他们的政党赢得国会控制权，那将是因为特朗普，而35%的受访者则认为是民主党强劲竞选活动的结果。
A Politico poll released this week revealed that half of Democratic respondents said if their party wins control of Congress, it would be because of Trump, while 35 percent said it would be the result of strong Democratic campaigns.
9月的一项CBS/YouGov民调发现，54%的民主党选民受到激励，希望投票反对特朗普和共和党的政策。46%的受访者表示，他们希望帮助民主党推行自己的政策。
A September CBS/YouGov poll found that 54 percent of Democratic voters were motivated to vote against Trump and Republican policies. Forty-six percent said they wanted to help Democrats enact their own policies.
皮尤研究中心（Pew Research Center）7月发布的一项民调结果更为明显：81%的民主党选民及倾向民主党的选民认为，他们的投票是反对特朗普的。
A Pew Research Center poll from July was even more stark, showing that 81 percent of Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning voters saw their vote as one against Trump.
一些政治观察人士警告称，11月取得强劲表现可能会加剧党内内斗，而非解决近几个月来越发严重的分歧。这将引发一场关于哪个派系应获得民主党中期选举大胜功劳的争论，而这场争论很可能延续到2028年的总统选举中。
Some political observers warn that a strong showing in November could deepen the internal feud within the party rather than resolve divisions that have only escalated in recent months. This would set up a debate over which faction deserves credit for a big Democratic Party win in the midterms, one likely to play out in the 2028 presidential contest.
“民主党人将在恐惧和混乱中行事，”资深共和党策略家苏珊·德尔·佩尔乔（Susan Del Percio）表示，她既不支持特朗普，也不支持当前共和党国会多数党的政策。
“Look for Democrats to operate under fear and chaos,” said Susan Del Percio, the veteran Republican strategist who does not support Trump or the current GOP Congress’s policies.
她补充道：“中期选举结束后，传统民主党人将开始思考如何最好地应对美国民主社会党（DSA）。”她指的是这个自由派团体，今年该团体已推动多位左翼初选候选人取得胜利。
“Once the midterms are over, traditional Democrats will start to reconcile how to best deal with the DSA,” she added, referencing the Democratic Socialists of America. That liberal group has been behind a number of left-wing victories by primary candidates this year.
德尔·佩尔乔补充说：“我最大的猜测是，他们将出于恐惧行事，也就是说，他们害怕面对党内初选，而这将导致混乱。”
“My best guess is that they will operate from fear, meaning they are afraid of facing their own primaries, which will lead to chaos,” Del Percio added.
“除非杰弗里斯拥有足够多的多数席位，能够不依赖他们进行治理，否则这场混乱将在众议院以最公开、最透明的方式上演，”她说道，并提到了众议院民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯（来自纽约州）。“然而，2028年的总统候选人也将不得不面对一个问题：他们是否支持民主社会党（DSA）的议程，甚至是否承认DSA是民主党的一员。”民主党人预计，一旦中期选举结束，那些瞄准2028年总统竞选的候选人将迅速表明自己的立场。这场竞选可能会吸引远不止十几位候选人。
“The chaos will be the most open and public in the House, unless Jeffries has enough of a majority to govern without them,” she said, referring to House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.). “However, the 2028 presidential candidates will also have to face off on whether they support the DSA agenda, or if they even recognize the DSA as members of the Democratic Party.”Democrats expect candidates eyeing the 2028 presidential race to make their intentions clear quickly once the midterms are over. It could be a race that attracts well more than a dozen candidates.
一旦这种情况发生，民主党人就必须开始说服选民：他们已经经历了反思，吸取了教训，并且拥有选民能够支持的政策。
After that happens, Democrats will have to start convincing voters that they’ve had their reckoning, they’ve learned their lessons and they have policies that the electorate can get behind.
“民主党必须提出一个积极主动、充满正能量的议程，要采取攻势，而不能仅仅由一个名词、一个动词和唐纳德·特朗普组成。我认为，从11月5日开始，就是着手这件事的时候，”民主党策略家乔尔·佩恩说道。“这才是真正的重大任务。”一位策略家表示，如果民主党认为中期选举的结果真的意味着选民在支持他们，那他们就是在“自欺欺人”。
“Democrats are going to have to come out with a proactive, positive agenda that’s on offense and doesn’t include a noun, a verb and Donald Trump. And I think the time for that starts on Nov. 5,” Democratic strategist Joel Payne said. “That’s the big project.”One strategist said the party is “fooling ourselves” if they think the results of the midterm elections really mean voters are supporting them.
“人们仍然不喜欢民主党及其所代表的理念。如果我们认为选举结果意味着其他意思，那我们就是彻头彻尾的傻瓜，在2028年，当特朗普甚至不会出现在选票上时，我们将惨败，”这位策略家说。“我们必须让这场竞选围绕我们自身展开，而不是围绕特朗普。我们离这一点还差得很远。”民主党策略家罗德尔·莫利诺则没有这么强烈的感受。但他也同意，即使中期选举取得重大胜利，工作也尚未完成。
“People still don’t like the Democratic Party and what it stands for, and if we think the results mean differently, we’re complete fools, and we’re going to be killed in 2028 when Trump won’t even be on the ballot,” the strategist said. “We have to make this about us and not about Trump. We’re so far from that.”Democratic strategist Rodell Mollineau said he doesn’t feel as strongly. But he agreed that the work isn’t done, even with a big midterm elections win.
他说，从现在到2028年，民主党必须始终将注意力集中在经济上。“选民存在经济焦虑，他们正在寻求经济变革，”莫利诺说道。
Democrats, he said, have to keep their sights trained on the economy above all from now through 2028. “Voters have economic anxiety, and they’re looking for economic change,” Mollineau said.
尽管战略家、捐赠者和立法者都表示，民主党在传达信息方面仍然面临选民问题，但莫利纽坚持认为：“这并非信息本身的问题，而是信息传达纪律的问题。”他说：“你们能否让所有人都保持一致，围绕相同议题展开讨论，从而实现步调一致并真正突破？”
While strategists, donors and lawmakers have said Democrats continue to have a messaging problem with voters, Mollineau insisted “it’s not a question of message, it’s a question of message discipline.”“Can you get everyone on the same page to talk about the same issues so it’s lockstep and breaks through,” he said.
但莫利纽表示，尽管民主党自2024年失利以来已经取得了长足的进步，“但我认为，在我们确定候选人之前，所有问题都还无法得到解决。”
But Mollineau said while Democrats have come a long way since their losses in 2024, “I don’t think all of our problems will be solved until we have a nominee.”
他说：“从初选中脱颖而出的那个人，将决定党的信息和议程。这就是现实。”
“The person who comes out of the primary will set the message and the agenda for the party,” he said. “That’s the reality.”