美国的中期选举结果几乎总是对执政党不利。这一铁律，再加上唐纳德·特朗普极低的支持率，意味着共和党很可能在11月3日的众议院选举中遭遇败绩。
Midterm elections in the US are almost invariably lost by the party occupying the White House. This iron rule, combined with Donald Trump's deep unpopularity, could mean that the Grand Old Party faces defeat in the House of Representatives on Tuesday, November 3.
起初，由于部分席位更新情况较为有利，共和党在参议院的多数地位看似稳固；但如今，总统的各项决策似乎又削弱了这一优势。特朗普发动的贸易战以及与以色列联手对伊朗采取的强硬举措，导致了持续的通货膨胀。尽管人工智能产业带动了美国经济展现出强劲活力，但通胀问题预计仍会对选民投票产生重大影响。
Initially considered more solid thanks to a favorable partial renewal, the Republican majority in the Senate also appeared weakened by the decisions of the US president. His trade wars and the aggression against Iran, carried out with Israel, have fueled persistent inflation, which is expected to weigh heavily at the polls, even though the US economy has shown enviable dynamism thanks to the artificial intelligence sector.
此次中期选举也是对美国民主制度韧性的一次考验：目前尚无法保证唐纳德·特朗普会在2028年卸任前的最后一次选举中坦然接受败局。他在2020年输掉总统选举后拒不承认结果，随后又于2021年1月6日纵容狂热支持者发动了美国历史上前所未有的国会山暴乱——这些前车之鉴都令人忧心不已。
These midterm elections serve as a test of the strength of US democracy, since there is no guarantee that Donald Trump will accept defeat gracefully during what will be the last electoral contest before he leaves office in 2028. The precedent set by the presidential election he lost in 2020 – which he never recognized – and the Capitol assault of January 6, 2021 – a coup attempt without parallel in US history, led by fanatical loyalists – are stark reminders.
早在选举日之前，白宫便竭尽全力试图左右投票结果：他们强迫那些听命于共和党的各州在缺乏人口普查数据作为依据的情况下重新划分选区。这种不公正的选区划分进一步扭曲了本就因巨额资金干预而失衡的民主程序，使得总统阵营获得了不成比例的竞争优势。此外，政府还多次试图限制那些被认为更受民主党选民青睐的投票方式，只是多数举措并未奏效。
The White House has done everything in its power, even before Election Day, to twist the vote in its favor, notably by imposing on compliant Republican-led states an unprecedented redrawing of electoral maps, without census results to justify it. This gerrymandering further distorts a democratic process already tainted by the outsized role of money, which disproportionately benefits the president's camp. Every effort has also been made, sometimes unsuccessfully, to restrict ballots thought to favor the Democratic opposition.
从理论上讲，此次中期选举本应让美国选民有机会表达对总统走向专制统治的看法——而这一趋势又因保守派在最高法院占据多数席位而愈演愈烈。那个无视利益冲突原则的家族不断敛财的现象，以及唐纳德·特朗普在联邦首都力推的各项建筑工程所蕴含的令人不安的个人象征意义，也都将成为此次选举的背景因素。
Theoretically, these midterm elections should give American voters the opportunity to express their views on the authoritarian turn of a presidency further empowered by the conservative majority on the Supreme Court. The troubling enrichment of a clan that tramples on the very notion of conflicts of interest, and the uncomfortable personal symbolism in the architectural projects Donald Trump has pushed for in the federal capital, will also form the backdrop to this vote.
这一切只会令共和党在各地方选举中的处境更加艰难。然而该党却未采取任何行动来捍卫法治及其曾宣称要全力维护的各类制度。
This can only complicate the task of the Republican Party in each of the local elections held during the midterms. Yet the party has done nothing to defend the rule of law and the institutions it once claimed to guarantee best.
与势力有所削弱的共和党阵营相对，民主党同样存在诸多弱点，最明显的便是其持续不受民众欢迎的现状。尽管尚未对乔·拜登（2021-2025年在任）的执政表现作出评估，民主党仍缺乏明确的路线方针：其内部左翼势力在其传统票仓地区占据主导地位，而在那些竞争更为激烈的州则存在倾向于维持政治平衡的派系。正如往常一样，最终选举结果仍将取决于那些近几个月来对现政府深感失望的独立选民。
Opposite this weakened presidential camp, the Democrats show other weaknesses, reflected in its persistent unpopularity. Without having assessed Joe Biden's (2021-2025) term in office, the Democrats remain without a clear line, torn between a left wing often dominant in their strongholds and a faction focused on balance in more competitive states – while, as is so often the case, the outcome will be decided by independent voters who have grown disillusioned with the current administration in recent months.
选举机制日益脆弱、各类制度疲态尽显，两大主要政党也岌岌可危——目前这一切都难以催生公民意识的复苏或民主制度的振兴。然而美国恰恰急需这样的变革。
Weakened electoral mechanisms, exhausted institutions and the fragility of the two main parties that garner most of the votes: nothing, for now, encourages a civic or democratic revival. Yet the US could sorely use one.