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美国中期选举简单指南A simple guide to the US midterms

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美国选民将于11月3日前往投票站,这场投票可能对唐纳德·特朗普的总统任期产生重大影响。

US voters will head to the polls on 3 November in a ballot that could have a major impact on Donald Trump’s presidency.

作者:詹姆斯·菲茨杰拉德距离美国中期选举还有四周,届时选民将参加可能对唐纳德·特朗普总统任期产生重大影响的投票。中期选举是什么?

By James FitzGerald There are four weeks to go until the US midterm elections, when voters take part in a ballot that could have a major impact on the rest of Donald Trump's presidency. What are the midterms?

11月3日,美国人将选举国会议员,国会由众议院和参议院两部分组成。

On 3 November, Americans will choose members of Congress, which is made up of two parts - the House of Representatives and the Senate.

选举每两年举行一次,当选举发生在总统四年任期的中期时,称为中期选举。

Elections take place every two years, and when they happen in the middle of the president's four-year term of office, they are called the midterms.

国会的一项关键任务是制定和通过联邦法律--适用于全国的法律。

A key task of Congress is to create and pass federal laws - laws that apply nationwide.

中期选举的结果将决定哪个政党--特朗普的共和党人或反对党民主党人--控制国会,以及总统实施他的计划有多容易。

The outcome of the midterms will decide which political party - Trump's Republicans or opposition Democrats - controls Congress and how easy it is for the president to carry out his plans.

调查结果也被视为衡量美国民众对总统迄今表现满意程度的一个指标。谁当选?

The results are also seen as a measure of how happy people in the US are with the president's performance so far. Who is being elected?

众议院(国会下院)的所有435名议员都将选举产生。他们的固定任期为两年。众议院是提出和辩论拟议法律的地方。

All 435 members of the House - the lower chamber of Congress - will be elected. They serve fixed terms of two years. The House is where proposed laws are introduced and debated.

与此同时,参议院(上议院)100个席位中的35个也将供争夺。参议员任期六年。除其他工作外,他们还批准或阻止从众议院收到的拟议法律。

Meanwhile, 35 of 100 seats in the Senate, the upper chamber, will also be up for grabs. Senators serve six-year terms. Among other jobs, they approve or block proposed laws that have been received from the House.

同一天,美国大部分地区的选民也将选择州级政客。加利福尼亚州、佛罗里达州、佐治亚州和密歇根州的州长竞选将是最受关注的。关键问题是什么?

On the same day, voters across much of the US will also choose state-level politicians. Governor contests in California, Florida, Georgia and Michigan will be among the most closely watched. What are the key issues?

许多选民关心的是美国经济,他们正在与燃料、杂货、住房和医疗保健的价格作斗争。

The US economy is on the minds of many voters struggling with the price of fuel, groceries, housing and healthcare.

通货膨胀率仍高于美联储的目标水平,部分原因是美国和以色列二月份与伊朗发动的战争。民主党人认为,特朗普的贸易关税计划也推高了美国人的物价。

Inflation remains above the level targeted by the US Federal Reserve, partly down to the war that the US and Israel started with Iran in February. Democrats argue Trump's programme of trade tariffs have also pushed up prices for Americans.

移民是另一个关键问题。共和党人表示,特朗普通过收紧边境并对非法移民发起广泛且经常引起争议的打击,兑现了2024年的主要竞选承诺。

Immigration is another key issue. Republicans say Trump has delivered on a major campaign pledge in 2024 by tightening the border and launching a widespread - and often controversial - crackdown on illegal immigration.

最近几周,对人工智能的担忧变得越来越紧迫。两党的高级政客都同意有必要对其进行监管--将自己置于反对特朗普的立场,后者拒绝通过法律控制该技术发展的想法。利害攸关?

Concerns over AI have grown in urgency in recent weeks. Senior politicians from both parties have agreed on the need to regulate it - setting themselves in opposition to Trump, who has rejected the idea of laws to control development of the technology. What is at stake?

国会是政府的三大分支之一,与总统和司法部门并列。对其的控制对于立法的制定至关重要。

Congress is one of the three branches of government, alongside the presidency and the judiciary. Control of it matters for the shaping of legislation.

众议院和参议院目前均由共和党控制。但它的大多数都是细长的。他们在众议院拥有218个席位,这是控制众议院所需的最低席位,加上一名与他们一起投票的独立人士。在参议院,他们拥有53个席位,控制所需的最低席位是51个。

Both the House and Senate are currently held by the Republican Party. But its majority is a slender one. They have 218 seats in the House, which is the minimum number needed to control it, plus one independent who votes with them. In the Senate, they have 53 seats and the minimum needed for control is 51.

如果反对党民主党赢回至少一个议院的控制权,他们将获得将自己的法律提交表决的权力。谁可能获胜?选民过去倾向于“惩罚”总统所在政党并投票反对他们。

If opposition Democrats win back control of at least one chamber, they will gain power to bring their own laws to the floor. Who might win? Voters have tended to "punish" the party of the president in the past and vote against them.

最近的民意调查显示总统的支持率很低。根据民意调查资源网站Silver Bulletin的数据,他开始第二个总统任期时的支持率略高于50%,但在10月初,支持率约为37%。与此同时,61%的人不赞成他。

Recent polling shows a low approval rating for the president. He began his second term as president with an approval rating of just over 50%, according to polling resource website Silver Bulletin, but in early October it was sitting at about 37%. Meanwhile 61% disapproved of him.

但并非每个议院的所有席位都有竞争力。有些对于共和党或民主党来说是安全的选择。

But not all seats in each chamber are competitive. Some are a safe bet for Republicans or Democrats.

BBC的美国合作伙伴CBS新闻已确定爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州等州有9场参议院竞选可供观看,亚利桑那州和俄亥俄州等州有42场众议院竞选可供观看。

The BBC's US partner CBS News has identified nine Senate races to watch, in states like Iowa and New Hampshire, and 42 House races, in states like Arizona and Ohio.

由于两党在众议院选区划分方式上发生争执,今年的投票更加不可预测。

The vote is more unpredictable this year because of a battle between the two parties over the way voting districts in the House of Representatives are drawn.

共和党试图通过在某些州创建更有利的选举地图来获得优势,民主党也效仿。这对特朗普意味着什么?

Republicans tried to gain an advantage by creating more favourable electoral maps in certain states and Democrats followed suit. What does it mean for Trump?

如果民主党赢得众议院或参议院,那么特朗普将发现很难让任何法律在国会获得通过。

If the Democrats win either the House or the Senate then Trump will find it difficult to get any laws through Congress.

因此,尽管他已经找到了在没有更广泛政党的情况下行使权力的方法,但他的国内计划可能会受挫。

So his domestic plans could be frustrated, although he has found ways to exercise power without his wider party.

民主党对参众两院的控制也意味着他们可以利用委员会来调查特朗普总统任期的各个方面。腐败指控、新的白宫宴会厅和ICE策略可能会受到审查。

Democratic control of either chamber would also mean they could use committees to investigate aspects of the Trump presidency. Corruption allegations, the new White House ballroom and ICE tactics could be subject to scrutiny.

民主党内部还就是否弹劾特朗普展开了辩论,这意味着向国会提出指控,这些指控将构成政治审判而不是刑事审判的基础。

There is also a debate within the Democratic Party about whether to impeach Trump, which means to bring charges in Congress that will form the basis for a political, not criminal, trial.

如果共和党继续控制国会,特朗普将能够在剩余任期内继续执行他的计划。这对2028年大选意味着什么?

If the Republican Party stays in control of Congress, Trump will be able to keep going with his plans for the remainder of his time in office. What does it mean for the 2028 election?

中期选举期间,总统的名字没有出现在选票上,尽管特朗普敦促共和党人假装总统的名字,投票给他,以认可他迄今为止的行为。

The president's name is not on the ballot during the midterm elections, though Trump has urged Republicans to pretend that it is by voting for him as an endorsement of his actions so far.

无论结果以何种方式下降,评论员都可能利用它们来争论选民对特朗普领导下国家走向的看法。

Whichever way the results fall, commentators are likely to use them to make arguments about how voters feel about the direction of the country under Trump's leadership.

特朗普不能第三次竞选总统。中期选举结束后,我们预计将开始猜测谁可能成为他的2028年共和党总统候选人继任者,以及谁可能与该人争夺民主党。

Trump cannot run to be president a third time. After the midterms, we can expect speculation to start building about who might be his successor as the Republican presidential nominee for 2028 - and who might compete against that person for the Democrats.