唐纳德·特朗普不太可能获得诺贝尔和平奖，但他的压力和批评言论将会对10月9日在奥斯陆举行的颁奖典礼产生影响。
Donald Trump is unlikely to win the Nobel Peace Prize, but his pressure and criticism will hang over Friday’s Oslo announcement.
诺贝尔委员会可能会选择那些获得广泛共识的获奖者（例如致力于儿童保护或人道主义工作的组织），或者选择某个可能会激怒特朗普的候选人。
The committee may choose a broad-consensus winner, such as child protection or humanitarian groups, or a choice that could anger Trump. Experts say the world faces record conflict, with 65 armed conflicts in 2025, so the prize may matter more than ever.
专家指出，当前世界面临空前的冲突局势：到2025年，全球将有65起武装冲突，因此这一奖项的重要性比以往任何时候都更加突出。
AI generated OSLO – US President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize are seen as minimal, but his “spectre” will cast its shadow over the announcement of the winner in Oslo on Oct 9, experts say.
专家们认为，特朗普获得诺贝尔和平奖的可能性微乎其微，但他的存在仍会对颁奖典礼产生负面影响。这位亿万富翁出身的共和党总统自2025年1月重返白宫以来，一直在积极争取该奖项，并且从未掩饰自己对未能获奖的失望之情。
The Norwegian Nobel Committee knows it will be under close scrutiny: since his return to the White House in January 2025, the billionaire Republican has campaigned intensively for the prize and has not hidden his disappointment at not winning it yet.
然而，他针对伊朗的战争、其领土扩张野心（有时甚至损害盟友的利益，比如在格陵兰岛问题上）、以及对国际合作机构和媒体的攻击，都削弱了他获得该奖项的机会。
The chances of him getting the nod are, however, undermined by his war against Iran, his territorial ambitions – sometimes at the expense of allies, as in Greenland – and his attacks on international cooperation institutions and the media.
尽管特朗普最近几周没有公开为诺贝尔奖进行游说，但他仍然备受关注；无论委员会最终选择谁，这一决定很可能会被解读为对美国总统的直接或间接批评。
Even though he has not been lobbying as openly for the Nobel in recent weeks, Trump remains on everyone’s minds, with strong chances that the committee’s pick will, regardless of who they choose, be interpreted as direct or indirect criticism of the US President.
奥斯陆和平研究所（PRIO）的负责人哈康·耶罗（Haakon Gjerlow）表示：“特朗普就像‘房间里那个挥之不去的阴影’一样，始终让人感到不安。”
Trump is “the spectre in the room”, said the head of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo (PRIO), Haakon Gjerlow.
鉴于白宫可能产生的反应，耶罗认为诺贝尔委员会必须自问：“颁发这一奖项是否有可能带来负面影响而非积极意义？”诺贝尔委员会方面则表示他们对此并不在意。
Given the reactions that could emerge from the White House, Gjerlow said the Nobel committee must be asking itself: “Is there any potential for this prize to create harm rather than good in awarding it?”The Nobel Institute says it is unfazed.
委员会秘书克里斯蒂安·伯格·哈普维肯（Kristian Berg Harpviken）对法新社表示：“一直以来都存在大量的游说活动，甚至有人试图对委员会施加压力。因此，从某种意义上说，我们已经对此习以为常了。”
The secretary of the committee, Kristian Berg Harpviken, told AFP news agency: “There’s always a lot of lobbying, and ultimately perhaps also attempts to exert pressure on the committee. So, in one sense, we’re very used to that.
“这并不是我们不会讨论的话题；当然我们必须讨论它，但它并不会影响会议上的讨论结果或最终的决策。”
“It’s not something we don’t discuss. Of course we have to discuss it, but it’s not like that influences the discussions in the room and decisions that come out.”
“掠夺者的时代” 2025年，这一享有盛誉的诺贝尔和平奖授予了委内瑞拉反对派领袖玛丽亚·科琳娜·马查多（Maria Corina Machado）——这一选择普遍被认为符合特朗普的意愿。
‘Age of predators’In 2025, the prestigious prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, a choice generally considered palatable to Trump.
马查多甚至将她的诺贝尔奖金牌颁给了特朗普，认为他在尼古拉斯·马杜罗（Nicolas Maduro）总统被捕后理应获得这一荣誉；不过她并未因此获得特朗普的政治支持。
Machado even gave him her Nobel gold medal, judging he deserved it after the capture of President Nicolas Maduro – though she failed to obtain his political backing in exchange.
这些事件可能会促使诺贝尔委员会在2026年选择一位能够获得广泛共识的获奖者，比如那些致力于保护儿童或从事人道主义工作的个人或组织。
Those events could prompt the committee to choose in 2026 a laureate who enjoys broad consensus, such as an individual or organisation working to protect children or humanitarian efforts.
可能的获奖者包括“救助儿童会”（Save the Children）以及乌克兰儿童权利活动家米科拉·库莱巴（Mikola Kuleba）——他正在为从被占领地区被非法带到俄罗斯的儿童争取回归的权利；这一议题与特朗普的妻子梅拉尼娅（Melania）的关注点高度契合。
That could include the Save the Children charity and Mykola Kuleba, a Ukrainian children’s rights activist campaigning for the return of children illegally taken to Russia from occupied territories – a cause close to the heart of Trump’s wife Melania.
苏丹的紧急救援组织（Sudan’s Emergency Response Teams）也是一个潜在的获奖候选者：这些由志愿者组成的网络冒着生命危险，帮助那些同时面临战争和饥饿威胁的人们。
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, a vast network of volunteers risking their lives to help people facing the double threat of war and hunger, could also be a potential laureate.
不过，诺贝尔委员会也有可能选择一位可能会让特朗普不悦的获奖者。
But the committee may also choose a laureate that could rub Trump the wrong way.
这些人选可能包括联合国巴勒斯坦被占领土问题特别报告员弗朗切斯卡·阿尔巴内塞（Francesca Albanese）、教皇利奥十四世（Pope Leo XIV）、保护记者委员会（Committee to Protect Journalists），以及国际刑事法院（ICC）和国际法院（International Court of Justice）等国际司法机构。
That could include the UN special rapporteur for the occupied Palestinian territories Francesca Albanese, Pope Leo XIV, the Committee to Protect Journalists, or international justice bodies such as the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice.
“我们生活在一个‘掠夺者的时代’——特朗普、普京、内塔尼亚胡……”诺贝尔奖历史学家阿斯莱·斯文（Asle Sveen）说道，“他们并不希望存在一个真正的国际秩序；他们只希望看到那些拥有势力范围的超级大国。而国际刑事法院正是他们实现这一目标的障碍。”
“We live in an age of predators. We have Trump, Putin, Netanyahu,” said Nobel historian Asle Sveen. “They don’t want to have an international order. They want to have big powers with spheres of influence. And this court stands in the way,” he said, referring to the ICC.
迄今为止，共有287位个人和组织获得了诺贝尔和平奖的提名；不过获奖者的名单在50年内都会被保密。
A total of 287 individuals and organisations have been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize, though the names on the list are kept secret for 50 years.
但在世界许多地区，和平依然难以实现：根据PRIO的数据，2025年全球发生了65起涉及至少一个国家行为体的武装冲突，这一数字是自1946年以来最高的。
But peace remains elusive in many parts of the world: 65 armed conflicts involving at least one state actor wereed in 2025, the highest number since 1946, according to PRIO.
“总体而言，很明显，世界并没有朝着正确的方向发展，”哈普维肯说。
“At an overall level, it is clear that the world is not developing in the right direction,” said Harpviken.
“同时……也不缺乏积极的举措；确实有许多组织和个人在为促进和平而努力，”他补充道。
“At the same time... there is no lack of good initiatives. There is no lack of organisations or individuals who do good work,” he said.
“如今，设立一个和平奖或许比以往任何时候都更加必要。”——法新社（AFP）
“A peace prize may make more sense than ever.”AFP