自2023年10月7日对以色列南部的袭击引发加沙战争以来，该地区的的安全格局已经发生了变化——但通往持久和平的道路仍然充满不确定性。
Three years since the Oct 7, 2023 attacks on southern Israel triggered the Gaza war, the region’s security landscape has changed – but the path to lasting peace is still uncertain.
在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普提出的20点和平计划推动下，停火协议于2025年10月生效，大规模战斗宣告结束。
ceasefire took effect in October 2025 under United States President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan bringing an end to large-scale fighting.
最初的阶段确保了以色列人质的获释，作为交换，近2000名巴勒斯坦囚犯和被扣押人员重获自由。
The initial phase secured the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
该计划还概述了哈马斯及其他武装组织解除武装、以色列军队分阶段撤出加沙，以及加沙地带的新治理安排。然而一年过去了，其中的许多步骤仍未完成。
The plan also outlined the disarmament of Hamas and other armed groups, a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and new governance arrangements for the enclave. But a year on, many of those steps remain unfinished.
南洋理工大学拉惹勒南国际研究院（RSIS）兼职高级研究员詹姆斯·多尔西（James Dorsey）表示：“这个和平计划是目前唯一的出路。但话虽如此，它已经陷入僵局。什么都没有进展。”
“The peace plan is the only game in town. But having said that, it's frozen. Nothing is happening,” said James Dorsey, adjunct senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at the Nanyang Technological University (NTU).
他周三（10月7日）对亚洲新闻台（CNA）的《亚洲现在》（Asia Now）节目表示：“我认为，事实上，以色列和哈马斯双方对目前的现状都不是不满意。”
“I think de facto, you have a situation where both Israel and Hamas are not unhappy with the current status quo,” he told CNA’s Asia Now on Wednesday (Oct 7).
现状为何持续存在 多尔西指出，哈马斯依然武装在身，并保留了对加沙部分地区的控制，同时继续“通过各种网络”及其在分发人道主义物资中的角色施加影响。该激进组织曾表示，其已退出加沙的正式民政管理。
WHY THE STATUS QUO PERSISTS Hamas remains armed and retains control over parts of Gaza, while continuing to exercise influence “through various networks” and through its role in the distribution of humanitarian goods, Dorsey said. The militant group has said it has withdrawn from Gaza’s formal civilian administration.
哈马斯与总部位于约旦河西岸的巴勒斯坦权力机构之间也依然存在分歧，后者曾表示已准备好恢复对加沙的治理角色。
There is also continued division between Hamas and the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority, which has said it is ready to resume a governing role in Gaza.
与此同时，以色列保持着对加沙地带大部分地区的控制，并保留了实施军事打击的能力。
Israel, meanwhile, maintains control over large parts of the Strip, and retains the ability to carry out military strikes.
最近的打击包括上周六试图暗杀哈马斯在加沙的最高领导人，而周二的空袭则造成至少两名巴勒斯坦人死亡。另一个尚未解决的问题是，如何让哈马斯解除武装切实可行。
Recent strikes included an attempt to kill Hamas’ top leader in Gaza last Saturday, while strikes on Tuesday killed at least two Palestinians. Another unresolved issue is how Hamas’ disarmament would realistically work.
“要推进这项提案，实际上将要求……哈马斯停止以任何形式作为一个实体或有组织的团体存在。他们是否愿意走到那一步，仍有待观察，”加州大学洛杉矶分校法学院的政治学家兼讲师本杰明·拉德说道。他补充说，哈马斯的政治未来仍然充满不确定性。
“To move forward with this proposal would effectively require … Hamas to stop existing as any kind of an entity or organised group. Whether they are willing to go that far remains to be seen,” said Benjamin Radd, political scientist and lecturer at the UCLA School of Law. He added that the political future of Hamas remains uncertain.
“如果哈马斯解除武装，他们还能继续作为一个政治力量存在吗？如果他们仍然是一个政治力量，他们能否参加选举？”他问道。
“If Hamas demilitarises, can they still remain a political force? If they remain a political force, can they run for elections?” he asked.
“他们能否有成员在未来某个议会中任职？所有这些问题都悬而未决。”拉德还指出，以色列方面也存在一个根本性问题：即使哈马斯满足了这些要求，以色列是否会接受建立一个巴勒斯坦国或一个自治的巴勒斯坦实体？“（这）实际上是一条双方似乎都不愿退让的红线，”他说。
“Can they have members sitting in a future parliament of some kind? All of these remain outstanding issues.”Radd also pointed out a fundamental question on the Israeli side: Even if Hamas delivers on the demands, would Israel accept the creation of a Palestinian state of an autonomous Palestinian entity? “(This) effectively (is) a red line both sides seem to have (that) they're not willing to move from,” he said.
拉德表示，以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡曾宣称，只要他在位，就不会有巴勒斯坦国。内塔尼亚胡的立场也应结合以色列国内政治的背景来看待。
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said there will be no Palestinian state while he remains in power Radd said Netanyahu’s position should also be viewed in the context of Israeli domestic politics.
“目前来说，这是内塔尼亚胡为在选举中生存下来而采取的策略，”他说。
“This is right now an electoral survival strategy for Netanyahu,” he said.
以色列人将于10月27日前往投票站，而内塔尼亚胡正面临激烈的连任竞争。
Israelis will head to the polls on Oct 27 with Netanyahu locked in a tight race for reelection.
“我认为，他提出这些立场并确立自己的观点，唯一目的就是争取其政治基础中支持更激进应对措施的那一方，”拉德说。美国能否打破僵局？
“He is, I believe, staking these positions and establishing his views for the sole purpose of winning the right side of his political base, the side that is pushing for a more aggressive response,” Radd said. CAN THE US BREAK THE DEADLOCK?
多尔西表示，解决巴勒斯坦问题至关重要，否则“中东地区将继续存在一个久治不愈的伤口”。
Dorsey said resolving the Palestinian question is crucial, adding that there would otherwise continue to be “a festering wound in the Middle East”.
然而，他指出，联合国绝大多数国家支持的“两国方案”正变得“非常困难，甚至不可能实现”，同时警告称，另一种选择——“一国方案”，则是内战的导火索。
However, he noted that a two-state solution – overwhelmingly endorsed by the United Nations – is becoming “very difficult, if not impossible”, while warning that the alternative, “a one-state solution, is a recipe for civil war”.
他补充说：“要想在和平计划上取得任何进展，唯一的方法就是对双方施加巨大压力，尤其是在本案中，即以色列方面，但目前没有任何迹象表明会有这种情况。”分析人士指出，华盛顿在推动和平计划进展方面起着关键作用。
He added: “The only way you are going to get any (progress on the peace plan) is if there is significant pressure on both parties, particularly in this case, Israel, and there's no sign of that.”Analysts pointed to Washington as crucial to moving the peace plan along.
多尔西表示：“美国才是这副牌中的关键变量。”他补充说，美国必须向以色列施压，促使其采取进一步行动，包括撤军以及明确哈马斯解除武装的具体含义。
“The US is the major joker in the deck,” said Dorsey, adding that America would have to pressure Israel to take further steps, including withdrawing its forces and clarifying what Hamas’ disarmament means.
他说：“这是否仅指重型武器？是否也包括小型手枪？分阶段实施的具体安排又是什么？这正是美国应该扮演但尚未发挥的角色。”
“Does that mean just heavy weapons? Does that mean small sidearms? What (will) the phasing of that be? That's the role that the US has to play (but) has not played,” he said.
“以色列或许承受过一些压力，但肯定不是足以说服其改变立场的那种压力。”分析人士称，许多事情都取决于美国总统，以及他愿意在多大程度上利用华盛顿对以色列的巨大影响力来推动这一进程。
“There may have been some pressure on Israel, but certainly not the kind of pressure that would persuade Israel.”Analysts said much depends on the US president, and how far he is willing to use Washington’s considerable leverage over Israel to push the process forward.
多尔西表示：“最终，正是特朗普需要迫使以色列做出让步。”他补充说，无论内塔尼亚胡是否执政，或是反对派政府上台，情况都将如此。“（但）我们几乎看不到特朗普愿意这样做的相关迹象。”
“It's going to be Trump who has to twist Israeli arms,” said Dorsey, adding that this would remain the case regardless of whether Netanyahu or an opposition government is in power. “(But) we've seen very little indication of Trump being willing to do so.”