
凯米·巴德诺奇获得了党内支持,但保守党在民意调查中仍落后于工党与改革党。作者:克里斯·梅森如今,保守党已属于凯米·巴德诺奇。
Kemi Badenoch has the support of her party but the Tories still trail Labour and Reform in opinion polls. By Chris Mason It is Kemi Badenoch's Conservative Party now.
在伯明翰结束的保守党年度会议上,这一信息无论是明说还是暗含,都贯穿始终。
Implicitly and explicitly, that was the message from the Tories' annual conference, which has wrapped up in Birmingham.
该党如今已高度团结在她周围,对其领导权的质疑声微乎其微,这与一年前的情况形成了鲜明对比。
It is a party very much united around her, with no murmurings of dissent about her leadership, which is quite the contrast from a year ago.
她担任保守党领袖以来,关键的转折点出现在一年前对同一会议发表的演讲中。当时,围绕罗伯特·詹里克可能试图推翻她的传言不绝于耳,而她却以充满自信的演讲赢得了党内支持者的认同。
The pivot point in her time as Conservative leader so far came in her address to this same gathering 12 months back, when, amid constant chatter about the prospect of Robert Jenrick seeking to topple her, she won over the party faithful with an address that oozed confidence. Not just that.
不仅如此,我们这些记者还拿到了她的演讲稿,可以逐行跟读,以便迅速准确地报道她的发言。但演讲末尾却缺少了一页。那一页上正是保守党最能赢得民众欢心的政策——取消英格兰和北爱尔兰的印花税计划。
Us reporters were given her speech script, allowing us to follow it line-by-line to help us report what she has said quickly and accurately. But there was a page missing towards the end. On that page was the Conservative crowd pleaser of a plan to scrap stamp duty in England and Northern Ireland.
快进到当下,熟悉的流程再次上演。在整个会议期间以及会前,人们都在热议一项关于遗产税的新政策。果不其然,她的演讲末尾又缺少了一页,上面载有她关于这项政策的计划。
Fast forward to now and there was a familiar drill. There was plenty of chat throughout the conference and beforehand of a new policy coming on inheritance tax, and, sure enough, another page was missing towards the end of her speech with her plan on that. The plan reopens the fascinating politics and psychology of inheritance tax – which is paid by fewer than one in 20 people but has been described as the country's most unpopular tax.
这一计划重新点燃了遗产税背后引人入胜的政治与心理议题——尽管只有不到五分之一的人需要缴纳这项税,但它却被称作英国最不受欢迎的税种。
Why so?
为何如此?主张削减或取消该税的人认为,这是因为许多人渴望有一天能富裕到需要缴纳遗产税的程度,此外,这项税实际上是对已纳税收入征收的第二次征税。
Advocates of cutting or scrapping it say it is because plenty aspire to one day being rich enough to end up having to pay it, plus it is a second tax on already taxed income. But the Conservatives' opponents, even before this speech, were already looking forward to the argument they anticipated after it.
然而,在演讲之前,保守党的反对者就已经开始期待演讲后可能出现的争论。
Reform UK, for instance, claim it is a "tax cut for multi-millionaires" and that their plan to cut income tax for millions by raising the threshold at which most people start paying it will benefit far more people.
例如,英国改革党声称,这项政策不过是“为百万富翁提供的减税”,而他们通过提高大多数纳税人起征点来为数百万人减税的计划,将惠及更多人。
Policy announcements aside, what stood out in this speech for me was a broader point.
撇开政策声明不谈,这次演讲中让我印象深刻的,其实是一个更广泛的问题。保守党资深选举策略家林顿·克罗斯比爵士(Sir Lynton Crosby)曾建议,该党应该“把船上的藤壶刮干净”——用他的话来说,指的是那些可能在选举期间给保守党带来麻烦的不受欢迎政策。
The veteran Conservative elections strategist Sir Lynton Crosby once suggested the party ought to "scrape the barnacles off the boat" as he put it, in reference to unpopular policies that could cause the Tories a headache during an election campaign. This speech felt like Badenoch revelling in pointing at the clean hull of the Conservative ship, what she sees as those barnacles removed, not least the high-profile defections of Jenrick and Suella Braverman.
这场演讲给人的感觉是,巴登诺奇(Badenoch)正热衷于强调保守党这艘船的干净船体——她认为那些藤壶已经被清除,尤其是詹里克(Jenrick)和苏埃拉·布雷弗曼(Suella Braverman)这两位高调叛党者。
There was a striking glee and anger in her reflections about Reform UK.
她在谈及英国改革党(Reform UK)时,流露出一种令人震惊的喜悦与愤怒。她试图将对方描绘成不光彩的政党,并刻意抓住了近几个月围绕“英格兰人身份”的争论。布雷弗曼曾指出,鉴于自己的亚洲血统,“我不是英格兰人”。
She sought to portray them as sleazy and pointedly decided to lean into an argument of recent months about Englishness. Braverman has argued that, given her Asian heritage, "I'm not English". "I'm proud to be British.
她上个月在社交媒体上写道:“我为自己是英国人而自豪。我的家人和祖先与英国有着跨越数个世纪的渊源。但我们绝不是英格兰人。”她还补充说:“英格兰人是一种族裔。”巴登诺奇对此表达了个人愤怒,她说,作为混血孩子的母亲,“当我儿子在看我们出色的英格兰队踢足球时,我不希望向他解释,有些人并不认为我们的黑人球员是英格兰人”。
My family and ancestors have a link to Britain which spans centuries. But in no way are we English," she wrote on social media last month, adding: "Englishness is an ethnicity." Badenoch expressed her personal fury at this, saying that as the mother of mixed-race children "I don't want to explain to my son, when we're watching our brilliant England team play football, that some people don't think our black players are English".
今天以及过去几天反复传达的信息是:巴登诺奇无法容忍英国改革党,并且无论下次大选前后,都不会与他们合作。
The recurring message, today and over the last few days, is Badenoch cannot stand Reform and won't work with them before or after the next general election.
然而,她的言论实际上是在攻击英国改革党的品性及其重要人物的判断力,而非真正聚焦于奈杰尔·法拉奇(Nigel Farage)最常提及的政策。
But what she said amounted to an attack on Reform's character and the judgement of their prominent figures, rather than a significant focus on the policies we hear talked about most often by Nigel Farage.
巴登诺奇确实提到了移民问题,但并未展开详谈。她将这一议题——以及保守党退出《欧洲人权公约》的政策(英国改革党同样主张此举)——主要留给了在她之前发言的影子内政大臣克里斯·菲尔普(Chris Philp)。
Badenoch did talk about immigration, but not at length. She largely left the issue – and the Conservative policy to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights, as Reform also advocates - to her shadow home secretary Chris Philp who spoke before her.
相反,巴德诺奇将这篇演讲建立在一个更宏大的议题之上:工党与保守党之间谁更值得信赖——尤其是谁更有能力推动经济增长。
Instead, Badenoch grounded this speech in the big picture tussle to be trusted between Labour and the Conservatives – and in particular who was better placed to deliver a growing economy.
在语气、语言以及对论点的热情表达方面,巴德诺奇和安迪·伯纳姆与他们的前任——里希·苏纳克和基尔·斯塔默爵士形成了鲜明对比。
In tone, language and public enthusiasm for the argument, Badenoch and Andy Burnham are quite the contrast with their immediate predecessors Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer.
巴德诺奇和伯纳姆在台上看起来都兴致盎然,并且都充满热情地阐述着各自截然不同世界观的核心内容。
Badenoch and Burnham both look like they are enjoying themselves on the stage, and are both enthusiastic purveyors of the core of what are their very different worldviews.
在演讲开始的一分钟左右,巴德诺奇就承认了这一点,她称之为“这场国家灵魂之战”。这为今年秋季及未来即将展开的辩论拉开了序幕。
Badenoch acknowledged this with what she called the "battle for the soul of this nation" in the opening minute or so of her address. It is a trailer for the debate to come this autumn and beyond.
保守党目前看起来士气高昂且团结一致。然而,尽管这两点对于任何政党领袖而言都比另一种情况要好,但它们并不等同于真正受欢迎。
The Conservatives feel chipper and are united. But while both of these things are better than the alternative for any party leader, they are not the same as being popular.
正如凯米·巴德诺奇所承认的那样,在这方面他们仍远未达到目标。民意调查显示,他们的支持率甚至比上次大选惨败时还要低。
And, as Kemi Badenoch acknowledged, they are not there on that score yet, by a long chalk, with opinion polls suggesting they are more unpopular than when they were annihilated at the last general election. The numbers, for them, are dire.
对他们来说,这些数据相当糟糕——不过相对而言,至少没有之前那么糟糕。
Just not as bad, relatively speaking, as they were.
但他们希望局势正在好转:改革党在过去几个月里遭受了重创,而保守党则相信,工党正逐渐向左倾,试图吸引绿党和自由民主党支持者。
But they hope things are looking up for them: Reform has had a bruising few months, and Labour, they believe, are leaning to the Left, trying to lure Green and Liberal Democrat supporters towards them.
保守党能否通过承诺无论收入高低都提供育儿费用援助、不提高昂贵住宅的市政税,并提出遗产税计划,来吸引英格兰南部最近转向自由民主党的支持者呢?保守党希望,如今政治市场中已经出现了他们可以利用的空隙。
Can the Conservatives also lure recent Lib Dem supporters in the south of England with talk of help with childcare costs whatever your income, not hiking the council tax of very expensive homes and this inheritance tax plan? This, Tories hope, there are now gaps in the political market they can exploit.

他们渴望在民意调查中追上并超越改革党,希望借此达到一个转折点,从而能够有说服力地宣称自己是工党或工党领导下的未来政府之外最可行的替代选择。让我们拭目以待。以了解威斯敏斯特及其之外的内部运作。
They crave catching and overtaking Reform in the polls, in the hope that after that there is a tipping point allowing them to credibly claim they are the most viable alternative to a Labour or Labour-led future government. Let's see. to keep up with the inner workings of Westminster and beyond.
