西班牙2026年大选 谁将成为西班牙下一任首相？最后更新于2026年10月8日 佩德罗·桑切斯，自2018年起担任西班牙社会党首相，已宣布于11月29日提前举行大选，比当前议会任期结束提前了八个月。社会党及其民粹主义左翼联盟伙伴在民调中已落后一年有余。最新民调显示，由主流保守派人民党（PP）和民粹主义右翼Vox领导的右翼阵营，对左翼联合力量领先约15个百分点。
Spanish election 2026 Who will be Spain’s next prime minister? Last updated on October 8th 2026 Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s Socialist prime minister since 2018, has called a snap election for November 29th, eight months before the end of the current parliamentary term. The Socialists and their populist-left coalition partners have been trailing in the opinion polls for more than a year. The latest polls give the right-wing block led by the mainstream conservative People’s Party (PP) and the populist-right Vox a lead of around 15 percentage points over the combined forces of the left.
政府声望因民众对生活成本的不满、腐败丑闻以及7月底超过8万名移民突然涌入休达——西班牙位于北非海岸的飞地——处置失当而受到重创。
The government’s standing has been battered by discontent over the cost of living, by corruption scandals and by its mishandling of a sudden surge in late July of over 80,000 migrants into Ceuta, a Spanish exclave on the North African coast.
但桑切斯发现了一个机会，可以借公众对住房市场的不满大做文章。一位87岁老妇被逐出她租住了70多年的公寓，引发了广泛抗议。政府提出了两项法令，旨在暂停驱逐弱势租户、控制租金并限制开发商购房。但议会以微弱多数否决了这两项法令，促使首相解散议会。
But Mr Sánchez spotted an opportunity to seize on the public’s displeasure with the housing market. The eviction of an 87-year-old woman from a flat she had rented for more than 70 years sparked widespread protests. The government presented two decrees to suspend evictions of vulnerable tenants, control rents and restrict property purchases by developers. But parliament narrowly rejected the decrees, prompting the prime minister to dissolve it.
投票意向，% 全国民调平均值 桑切斯以民粹主义措辞界定此次选举，将其描述为一场捍卫福利国家和住房权利、对抗强大社会经济精英的斗争。他在2023年上次大选中落败，当时人民党赢得了更多议会席位，但他通过联合强硬左翼以及一些加泰罗尼亚和巴斯克民族主义者，拼凑出微弱议会多数，从而得以继续执政。这一多数并不稳固：自2023年以来，他一直未能批准预算，常常诉诸法令治国。他多次与司法机构发生冲突，同时依赖其批评者眼中他对宪法法院的控制。
Voting intention, % Average of national polls Mr Sánchez has framed the election in populist terms, as a battle to defend the welfare state and access to housing against powerful socio-economic elites. He lost the last general election in 2023, when the PP won more parliamentary seats, but he clung on by stitching together a narrow parliamentary majority with the hard left and some Catalan and Basque nationalists. That majority was fickle: he has failed to approve a budget since 2023, often resorting to rule by decree. He has clashed repeatedly with the judiciary while relying on what his critics see as his control of the Constitutional Tribunal.
西班牙政治曾一度相当一致，如今却变得高度两极分化。2023年，桑切斯先生成功煽动对“呼声党”（Vox）的恐惧，阻止了一场看似不可避免的右翼胜利。但这一次，这一招或许难以奏效：“呼声党”已与人民党（PP）在多个地方政府组成联盟，其存在也基本被社会所接受。在西班牙的半比例代表制下，最终结果将取决于全国范围内下议院（共350个席位）中少数几个席位的归属是否发生变动。
Spanish politics, once fairly consensual, has become highly polarised. In 2023 Mr Sánchez successfully whipped up fear of Vox to prevent what had seemed an inevitable right-wing victory. But that might be harder this time: Vox is in coalition with the PP in several regional governments and its presence has been largely normalised. In Spain’s semi-proportional system, in the end the outcome will depend on whether or not a few handfuls of seats in the lower house (of a total of 350) scattered across the country change hands.
尽管桑切斯先生或许能在民意调查中缩小差距，但很可能无法彻底抹平，这意味着西班牙在11月可能会向右转。
Although Mr Sánchez will probably narrow the gap in the polls, he is unlikely to close it, meaning Spain could move to the right in November.
西班牙工人社会党（PSOE）：佩德罗·桑切斯。年仅54岁的他，是西班牙政坛真正的幸存者，一位精明的策略家，也是一位强大的竞选者。桑切斯先生已连任八年，在一个如今支离破碎的政治体系中领导着少数派政府。他通过进一步向民粹主义左翼靠拢，并突破此前社会党视为不可逾越的红线，才得以维持地位。例如，他与“比尔杜”（Bildu）党结盟，该党源自巴斯克恐怖组织“埃塔”（ETA）。
The parties Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) Pedro Sánchez Still aged only 54, he is the great survivor of Spanish politics, a clever tactician and formidable campaigner. Mr Sánchez has survived in the top job for eight years, leading minority governments in a now-fragmented political system. He has done so by moving more towards the populist left and by knocking aside what were previously red lines for the Socialists. For example, he allied with Bildu, a party descended from ETA, a Basque terrorist group.
为了在2023年保住权力，他批准了对2017年组织非法独立公投的加泰罗尼亚分离主义者的特赦（而不仅仅是减刑）。此前，大多数法律学者以及桑切斯先生本人均认为这项特赦违宪。在国际上，他将自己定位为反特朗普的立场，指责以色列在加沙犯下种族灭绝罪，并拒绝遵守北约将国防开支占GDP比重提升至5%的目标。
To cling on in 2023 he conceded an amnesty (not just pardons) for Catalan separatists who organised an illegal independence referendum in 2017. Most legal scholars, and Mr Sánchez himself, had previously thought the amnesty unconstitutional. Internationally he has positioned himself as anti-Trump, accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza and refused to adhere to the NATO target of spending 5% of GDP on defence.
这一立场为他赢得了一些人的赞赏，但其宽松的移民政策以及与中国的友好关系却惹恼了欧洲伙伴。
That has won him plaudits from some, but his liberal immigration policy and friendship with China have annoyed European partners.
人民党（PP）阿尔贝托·努涅斯·费霍 现年65岁，他是西班牙人所称的经验丰富的地区“男爵”，曾于2009年至2022年成功领导加利西亚地区政府。空降出任党内最高职位后，他有时似乎难以适应全国舞台。他本性上是温和的中间派，却对桑切斯先生采取了越来越尖锐的反对立场。人民党将试图把这次选举变成对桑切斯先生的公投。
People's Party (PP) Alberto Núñez Feijóo Aged 65, he was an experienced regional “baron” as they are known in Spain, having successfully led the regional government of Galicia from 2009 to 2022. Parachuted into his party’s top job, he has sometimes seemed to struggle to adapt to the national stage. By inclination a moderate centrist, he has adopted an ever-shriller opposition to Mr Sánchez. The PP will try to make the election a referendum on Mr Sánchez.
费霍先生承诺“民主复兴”，恢复监管机构的独立性以及议会的地位。他还希望减税，并对移民施加一些限制，并设定了雄心勃勃的目标，即通过削减繁文缛节在四年内建造100万套新房。人民党在地方和地区政府中势力强大，已证明比欧洲许多其他主流保守政党更具韧性。
Mr Feijóo has promised “democratic regeneration”, restoring independence to regulators and the standing of parliament. He also wants to cut taxes and place some restrictions on immigration and has set an ambitious target of building 1m new homes in four years by cutting red tape. The PP, with a strong presence in local and regional governments, has proved more resilient than many other mainstream conservative parties in Europe.
圣地亚哥·阿巴斯卡尔 现年50岁，他是巴斯克地区一位店主的儿子，曾遭受埃塔的威胁。他长期是人民党成员，2013年与其决裂，随后创立了西班牙民族主义政党Vox。该党的突破源于对加泰罗尼亚分离主义诉求的回应，这一诉求威胁到西班牙的统一。阿巴斯卡尔先生于2019年首次当选议员。Vox在民调中的支持率稳步上升，但今年停滞在略低于20%的水平。
Santiago Abascal Aged 50, he is the son of a shopkeeper in the Basque country who suffered threats from ETA. A longstanding member of the PP, he broke with it in 2013 and went on to found Vox as a Spanish nationalist party. Its breakthrough came in answer to the Catalan separatist bid, which threatened the unity of Spain. Mr Abascal was elected to parliament for the first time in 2019. Vox’s support in the polls has steadily grown, but has plateaued just short of 20% this year.
该党呼吁采取更严厉的移民政策，包括“再移民”（即驱逐出境）；它还反对应对气候变化的行动，以及反对堕胎和同性恋权利。Vox曾在2024年加入欧洲保守派和改革派团体，后转投欧洲爱国者团体（并在那里与玛丽娜·勒庞会合）。阿巴斯卡尔先生现在是该团体主席。
The party calls for much tougher immigration policy, including “remigration” (ie, deportations); it also opposes action to combat climate change, as well as abortion and gay rights. Having been part of the European Conservatives and Reformists group in 2024 Vox switched to the Patriots for Europe group (where it joined Marine Le Pen). Mr Abascal is now the group’s president.
苏马尔/我们能党 在住房泡沫破裂引发抗议浪潮后，一群年轻活动家创立了“我们能党”（Podemos），将其定位为激进左翼政党。2015至2016年间，该党在民调中一度威胁要超越西班牙工人社会党（PSOE），但随后势头回落。尽管桑切斯此前曾持反对态度，他仍在2019年邀请该党与社会党组建联合政府。“我们能党”素有内部纷争的历史，反对其前领导人巴勃罗·伊格莱西亚斯（Pablo Iglesias）的成员已退出该党。
Sumar/Podemos Following protests over the bursting of a housing bubble, a group of young activists founded Podemos as a radical-left party. In 2015-16 it threatened to overtake PSOE in the polls, but then fell back. Despite his previous opposition Mr Sánchez invited it to form a coalition government with the Socialists in 2019. Podemos has a history of infighting and those opposed to Pablo Iglesias, its former leader, left the party.
2023年，这些退出者组建了“苏马尔”（Sumar），这是一个由20个主要以地区为基础的松散团体组成的联盟。在与“我们能党”组成单一名单参选后，该联盟赢得了31个席位。此次选举中，民粹左翼阵营处于分裂且无领导人的状态。
In 2023 they formed Sumar, a loose amalgam of 20 mainly regional groups, which in a single list with Podemos won 31 seats. The populist left enters this election divided and leaderless. Regional parties A total of 28 members of the outgoing parliament represented assorted nationalist and regionalist parties.
地区政党 本届议会中，共有28名议员来自各类民族主义和地区主义政党。其中最重要的包括：卡莱斯·普伊格德蒙（Carles Puigdemont）所在的“联合”党（Junts），普伊格德蒙是2017年加泰罗尼亚分裂主义运动的领导人，该党曾投票反对住房法令；加泰罗尼亚共和左翼（Catalan Republican Left），这是一个民族主义团体，通常是桑切斯可靠的盟友；以及巴斯克民族主义党（Basque Nationalist Party），这是一个纪律严明的保守派政党，自2018年以来一直支持桑切斯，但如果“呼声党”（Vox）支持的重新中央集权化政策未被提出，该党也有可能支持由人民党（PP）领导的政府。
Among the most important were Junts, the party of Carles Puigdemont, the Catalan separatist leader in 2017, and which voted against the housing decrees; the Catalan Republican Left, a nationalist group which has been a generally reliable ally for Mr Sánchez; and the Basque Nationalist Party, a disciplined conservative party that has backed Mr Sánchez since 2018 but which could potentially support a PP-led government provided it doesn’t propose the recentralisation supported by Vox.