与其他任何因素一样，柴油价格的不成比例的高涨正在削弱特朗普总统的政治支持，进而影响其他共和党人的支持。这尤其威胁到中西部的共和党人，因为该地区的农民依赖柴油驱动拖拉机和收割机，而俄亥俄州、爱荷华州、堪萨斯州和内布拉斯加州的参议院竞争异常激烈。
As much as any other factor, the disproportionately high price of diesel is killing President Trump’s political support and by extension that of other Republicans. This particularly threatens Republicans in the Midwest, where farmers rely on diesel for tractors and harvesting, with close Senate races in Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska.
由于取暖油是柴油的一种变体，高企且持续上涨的价格也重创了新英格兰地区——该地区是取暖油的大量使用者，缅因州和新罕布什尔州的两场参议院竞争异常激烈。昨晚在缅因州，民主党候选人特罗伊·杰克逊在与共和党现任参议员苏珊·柯林斯的四场辩论中的第一场辩论中表现远超预期，而柯林斯笨拙地试图将“奥古斯塔”——杰克逊曾任州参议院议长的州首府——说成是导致高油价的原因，而这些高油价实际上是特朗普在华盛顿制定的政策所致。
Since home heating oil is a variant of diesel, the high and rising prices also whack New England, a heavy heating oil user, with two very close Senate races in chilly Maine and New Hampshire. In Maine last night, Democrat Troy Jackson did a lot better than expected in the first of four debates against Republican incumbent Susan Collins, who ineptly tried to blame “Augusta,” the state capital where Jackson was state Senate president, for high prices made in Trump’s Washington.
用于建筑的车辆也几乎完全依赖柴油，这进一步增加了成本。高昂的柴油价格正在削弱特朗普及其他共和党人在卡车司机群体中的支持，而这一群体过去常常支持特朗普。如今，一名驾驶18轮大卡车的司机要为加满150加仑油箱支付略低于1000美元，而一年前仅需约500美元。
Vehicles used in construction also rely almost entirely on diesel, increasing those costs. High diesel prices are killing Trump and other Republicans with truck drivers, a demographic that was often supportive of Trump in elections past. A trucker with an 18-wheeler now pays just under $1,000 to fill a 150-gallon tank, compared to about $500 a year ago.
高昂的柴油成本通过卡车运输传导到所有消费品。总体而言，共和党人在此时谈论“可负担性”简直可笑，因为这种基本生活必需品的价格正因共和党的战争政策而飙升。
High diesel costs cycle into all consumer goods moved by truck. In general, it is laughable for Republicans to embrace the theme of affordability when the price of something this basic is going through the roof due to Republican war policies.
目前柴油零售价约为每加仑6.30美元，而普通汽油为每加仑4.37美元。自伊朗战争爆发以来，柴油零售价上涨了约70%，而汽油仅上涨了约40%。由于两者均由原油蒸馏而得，为何柴油价格涨幅如此不成比例？
Diesel now retails for about $6.30 a gallon, compared to $4.37 for regular gasoline. Since the Iran war began, retail diesel prices increased by about 70 percent, compared to around 40 percent for gas. Since both are distilled from crude oil, why the disproportionate rise in diesel?
有四个基本解释，都根源于伊朗战争。虽然我们认为中东主要出口原油，但实际上波斯湾国家已经建设了大量炼油能力。中东的炼油能力目前为每日1300万桶，仅略低于美国的1800万桶。这些精炼产品出口以柴油为主，因为中东开采的原油往往比美国原油更重。但伊朗战争大幅削减了中东出口，包括胡塞武装对沙特设施的报复性袭击。
There are four basic explanations, all rooted in the Iran war. While we think of the Middle East as exporting mainly crude oil, in fact the Persian Gulf states have built lots of refinery capacity. Middle East refining capacity now stands at 13 million barrels per day, not far below the U.S. capacity of 18 million barrels. These exports of refined product are disproportionately diesel, since oil pumped in the Mideast tends to be heavier than U.S. crude oil. But the Iran war has drastically cut Mideast exports, including retaliatory attacks by Houthis on Saudi facilities.
其次，美国的炼油能力几乎已满负荷运转，因此几乎没有从汽油转向生产更多柴油的空间。美国石油公司在过去三十年里没有建设过新的炼油厂。
Second, U.S. refining capacity is running at almost 100 percent, so there is little ability to shift from gasoline to produce more diesel. U.S. oil companies have not built a new refinery in three decades.
第三，俄罗斯是柴油的净出口国，但已大幅削减出口，部分原因是乌克兰无人机袭击导致的炼油厂损坏。特朗普将很大一部分责任归咎于俄乌战争。但根据国际能源署的数据，波斯湾柴油出口的削减量大约是俄罗斯出口减少量的三倍。
Third, Russia, a net exporter of diesel, has sharply cut exports, partly because of damage to refineries caused by Ukrainian drone attacks. Trump has placed a good deal of blame on the Russia-Ukraine war. But according to the International Energy Agency, cuts in Persian Gulf diesel exports are about three times that of reduced Russian exports.
最后，还有所谓的裂解价差。这是指炼油厂的利润，柴油的裂解价差高于汽油。
Finally, there is what’s known as the crack spread. That’s the profit made by refineries, which is higher for diesel than for gasoline.
今日TAP 此故事首次出现在我们的免费《今日TAP》通讯中，这是一份工作日的电子邮件，由《前景》杂志记者提供每日新闻评论。
Today on TAP This story first appeared in our free Today on TAP newsletter, a weekday email featuring commentary on the daily news from Prospect reporters.
无付费墙，无程序化广告 — — 只有报道。随时可退订。提交您的电子邮件即表示您订阅了《今日TAP》，我们的工作日下午通讯。
No paywall, no programmatic ads — just the reporting. Unsubscribe anytime. Submitting your email signs you up for Today on TAP, our weekday afternoon newsletter.
由于所有这些因素，柴油目前每桶售价约200美元，大约是原油价格的两倍。特朗普拒绝结束伊朗战争 — — 这是所有这些短缺的根本原因 — — 他转而求助于对症治疗。
Because of all these factors, diesel is now selling at around $200 a barrel, about double the price of crude oil. Trump, refusing to end the Iran war, the basic cause of all of these shortages, has resorted to symptomatic relief.
首先，特朗普的红色染料柴油事件。这是农民和越野设备使用的柴油。它免征联邦每加仑24.4美分的柴油税。除了用于区分的染料之外，这种燃料就是普通柴油。
For starters, there is Trump’s red-dye diesel caper. That’s diesel used by farmers and off-road equipment. It’s exempt from the federal diesel tax of 24.4 cents a gallon. Except for the dye, used to differentiate it, the fuel is ordinary diesel.
周一，特朗普在内布拉斯加州的竞选活动期间签署了一项行政命令，允许红色染料柴油用于公路车辆。这只能在加油站提供微乎其微的缓解，而且这一招数已经让担心需求增加会推高他们所付价格的农民们感到愤怒。此外，这只是税收的延期，而非减税，因为只有国会才能修改税收。
On Monday, Trump signed an executive order while at a Nebraska campaign event, allowing red-dye diesel to be used by on-road vehicles. This will provide only trivial relief at the pump, and the gambit is already infuriating farmers who are concerned that increased demand will bid up the prices that they pay. Moreover, this is only a tax deferral, not a cut, since only Congress can alter the tax.
特朗普还施压助手减少美国战略石油储备，目前该储备处于历史最低水平。这实际上威胁到储存石油的天然洞穴的地质可行性，因为它们的稳定性取决于不让它们完全干枯。
Trump has also pressured aides to draw down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is now at its lowest level ever. This literally threatens the geological viability of the natural caves where the oil is stored, since their stability depends on not letting them go totally dry.
特朗普还威胁要禁止美国柴油出口。他的助手解释说，这也会适得其反，因为美国柴油出口实际上是一个复杂的全球循环系统的一部分，在这个系统中，中东炼油厂向亚洲和欧洲输送柴油，而美国炼油厂向欧洲出口柴油，欧洲炼油厂则向美国出口汽油。美国实施出口禁令将导致其他国家效仿，进一步推高全球价格。
Trump also threatened to ban exports of U.S. diesel. His aides explained that this would also backfire, since U.S. diesel exports are actually part of a complex circular global system in which Mideast refiners ship to Asia and Europe, while U.S. refiners export diesel to Europe and European refiners export gasoline to the U.S. An export ban by the U.S. would lead other nations to follow suit, and further raise prices worldwide.
随后，特朗普转而施压欧洲释放其自身的柴油储备。欧洲领导人似乎表示同意，但法国和德国刚刚收回了这一立场。
Trump then settled for pressuring Europe to release its own reserve stocks of diesel. European leaders appeared to agree, but France and Germany have just walked that back.
底线是：特朗普无法做出比微乎其微更多的事情来降低柴油价格，他的花招很可能适得其反——当然，除非他结束对伊朗的战争。种瓜得瓜，种豆得豆。
Bottom line: There is nothing Trump can do to cut diesel prices more than trivially, and his gimmicks could well backfire—unless of course he ends his Iran war. As ye sow, so shall ye reap.