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印度有争议的选民名册变更引发抗议运动India’s Controversial Voter-Roll Changes Drive Protest Movements

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10月6日,警方在新德里拘留了一名抗议者。摄影师:Arun Sankar/AFP/Getty ImagesPolice detain a protester in New Delhi on Oct. 6. Photographer: Arun Sankar/AFP/Getty Images

作者:拉杰什·罗伊印度围绕选民名单变动的争议愈演愈烈,反对党、学生和农民纷纷联合起来,共同要求罢免该国选举委员会主席。

By Rajesh Roy A controversy over voter-roll changes in India is deepening as opposition parties, students and farmers rally around a common demand to oust the country’s election chief.

本周,在印度首都德里,反对派议员们按计划或临时发起示威活动,防暴警察、路障以及用于驱散抗议者的巴士随处可见。警方封锁了通往德里市中心的通道,多名示威者因此遭到拘留。

dia’s capital this week, riot police, barricades and buses waiting to carry away protesters became a familiar sight as opposition lawmakers staged planned and impromptu demonstrations. Several were detained as police blocked marches through central Delhi.

“蟑螂人民党”曾在今年7月领导了近年来印度规模最大的学生抗议运动,迫使教育部长辞职。该党计划于周六在首都再度发起大规模示威。此次行动还得到了其他学生团体以及颇具影响力的农民组织的支持。

The Cockroach Janta Party, which led one of India’s biggest student protest movements in years in July that forced out the education minister, is planning another major demonstration in the capital on Saturday. The campaign has also drawn support from other student groups and influential farmers’ organizations.

此次紧张局势的起因是一份地方报纸的报道:该报道称,选举委员会主席吉亚内什·库马尔无视两名选举官员对选民名单变动提出的担忧。这些变动导致超过1.3亿人的名字从选民名单中被删除。印度选举委员会则否认了这些指控。

The latest tensions were triggered by an investigation in a local newspaper accusing Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar of ignoring concerns raised by two election officials over the electoral roll changes, which have resulted in more than 130 million names being removed from the. The ECI has denied the claims.

“选民名单争议与考试舞弊抗议其实相互关联,两者都引发了人们对公共机构能否做到公正、透明运作的质疑,”卡内基国际和平基金会南亚项目主任米兰·瓦伊什纳夫指出,“一旦公众对制度的信任受损,便很难再重建起来。”

“The controversy over electoral rolls and the protests over exam irregularities are linked because they both raise doubts about whether public institutions can be trusted to act impartially and transparently,” said Milan Vaishnav, a senior fellow and director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

对于反对派以及总理纳伦德拉·莫迪领导的执政党而言,此次事件意义重大。未来数月内,印度将举行多场重要的邦级选举,其中拥有约2.5亿人口的北方邦更是关键战场。

“Once institutional trust has eroded, it is not easy to build it back up.”The stakes are high for both the opposition and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling party, with several key state elections due in the coming months, including the prize of Uttar Pradesh, home to about 250 million people.

这些抗议活动发生仅几个月前,大批印度青年还走上街头,要求政府解决考试屡屡失利的问题,并表达对就业前景黯淡的不满。这次大规模抗议令许多人始料未及,也让政府陷入被动,最终导致教育部长辞职——这是莫迪执政12年来首位因民众压力而下台的内阁部长。

The protests come just months after young Indians took to the streets to demand action over a series of examination failures and express frustration over limited job prospects. The show of force took many by surprise and put the government on the back foot, ultimately resulting in the resignation of the education minister — the first time in Modi’s 12 years in power that a cabinet minister had stepped down under public pressure.

10月4日,抗议者在孟买举行示威游行时手持印度国旗。Protesters carry India’s national flag during a demonstration in Mumbai on Oct. 4.

此次民众愤怒的焦点是“特别密集选民名单修订计划”(SIR)。该计划于去年启动,旨在清除选民名单中的已故、重复及不符合资格的选民。但批评者指出,许多符合资格的选民也被错误地剔除,这有可能影响选举结果。

This time, the anger is focused on the Special Intensive Revision, or SIR, a massive exercise launched last year to revise India’s electoral rolls by removing dead, duplicate and ineligible voters. Critics have said that eligible voters are also being removed in the process, potentially affecting election outcomes.

西孟加拉邦的选举结果进一步加剧了人们的担忧:今年早些时候,该邦完成选民名单修订后,莫迪领导的印度人民党意外取得了压倒性胜利。不过,此次修订究竟在多大程度上影响了选举结果,目前尚不得而知。

Those concerns have been sharpened by the results in West Bengal, where Modi’s BJP won a surprise landslide victory earlier this year after the state underwent a voter-roll revision. The extent to which the exercise influenced the outcome, if at all, remains unclear.

9月下旬,《印度快报》报道称,在10个月的时间里,两名选举委员会委员至少14次就该修订流程向库马尔提出过担忧。本周,印度最高法院也介入了这场争议,对用于登记新选民的表格修改内容提出了质疑。

In late September, the Indian Express reported that two election commissioners had raised concerns about the process with Kumar at least 14 times over a 10-month period. India’s top court has also weighed in on the dispute this week, questioning changes to a form used to new voters.

“选民名单危机对印度反对派而言堪称天赐良机,”大西洋理事会南亚事务高级研究员迈克尔·库格尔曼说道,“反对派希望这些大规模街头抗议活动——如今在莫迪执政时期似乎愈发频繁——能转化为对印度人民党在 upcoming 各邦选举中的打击。”对此,选举委员会否认了《印度快报》的报道,称其各项决策均获一致通过,不同意见的存在也是决策过程的正常现象。此外,委员会还放宽了选民证明自身资格的部分要求,并下令开展专项行动以帮助那些被遗漏在名单之外的人重新登记。

“The voter roll crisis is a gift to the Indian opposition,” said Michael Kugelman, senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council. “The opposition will hope that these large street mobilizations, which are now threatening to occur with unprecedented frequency in the Modi era, translate to blows against the BJP in upcoming state elections.”The Election Commission has denied the Indian Express report, saying its decisions were unanimous and that differing views are a normal part of the decision-making process. It has also eased some of the requirements for voters to prove their eligibility and ordered a special campaign to help those left off the rolls again.

莫迪所在的政党将这些示威活动视为反对派在选举失利后试图抹黑民主制度的手段。印度人民党领导人指责印度国民大会党试图煽动骚乱,以此来提升拉胡尔·甘地的政治影响力;同时他们为选举委员会修订选民名单的举措辩护,称此举是为了剔除不符合条件的选民。

Modi’s party has dismissed the demonstrations as an attempt by the opposition to discredit democratic institutions after failing to win elections. BJP leaders have accused the main Indian National Congress party of trying to foment unrest and revive Rahul Gandhi’s political fortunes, while defending the Election Commission’s voter-roll revisions as necessary to remove ineligible voters.

“由于该党与这一举措联系如此紧密,它实际上在某种程度上承担了对此事的政治责任,”瓦伊什纳夫说道。

“By so closely identifying itself with the exercise, the party has assumed a degree of political ownership over it,” said Vaishnav.

对反对派而言,这场争议成了难得的团结契机,让多个在多个邦存在竞争的政党走到了一起。周二,数百名议员试图向选举委员会办公地进发,但遭到警方阻拦。印度国民大会党资深领导人拉胡尔·甘地及其妹妹普里扬卡·甘地·瓦德拉带头在附近的一栋政府大楼前举行静坐抗议,抗议活动持续了数小时,随后两人被警方拘留。周三和周四,示威活动仍在继续,各反对党誓言将继续向政府施压。

For the opposition, the controversy has provided a rare point of unity, bringing together parties that are rivals in several states. On Tuesday, hundreds of lawmakers attempted to march to the Election Commission’s office but were blocked by police. Rahul Gandhi and his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, senior Congress leaders, led an impromptu sit-in at a nearby government building, which lasted several hours before police detained them. The demonstrations continued on Wednesday and Thursday, with opposition parties vowing to keep up the pressure.

目前,新德里方面几乎没有容易实施的方案来平息抗议浪潮。库格尔曼指出,除非抗议者确信政府机构正在回应他们的诉求且运作更加规范,否则这场对峙不太可能缓和。

That leaves New Delhi with few easy options to defuse the protests. Kugelman said the confrontation is unlikely to lose momentum until protesters believe government institutions are addressing their concerns and functioning better.

“政府如今进退两难,”他说道。“若向抗议者让步,只会促使他们提出更多要求;但若新德里无视他们的诉求,抗议者的愤怒情绪只会进一步升级,甚至可能引发更大规模的动员。”

“The government is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea,” he said. “By giving in to protestors, it will only galvanize them to demand more. But if New Delhi rejects their concerns, the protestors will only grow angrier, with the possibility of more mobilizations.”