根据独立调查机构PF Global最新开展的POLITICO民调显示，四分之一的特朗普支持者认为，共和党候选人若想在11月选举中胜出，就必须与总统保持距离。
One in four Trump voters say GOP candidates should break with the president to win in November, according to the latest POLITICO Poll, conducted by independent firm PF Global.
这一结果充分反映出：即便是忠诚的共和党支持者也意识到，唐纳德·特朗普正在拖累整个共和党阵营。持续的高通胀、每加仑4美元的汽油价格、7%的房贷利率、中东地区的动荡局势以及与加拿大的贸易战，都为共和党候选人提供了大量可以抨击总统的契机。
The findings underscore the degree to which even loyal Republicans understand President Donald Trump is a drag on the ticket. Persistent inflation, $4 gas prices, 7% mortgage rates, a quagmire in the Middle East and a trade war with Canada have given Republican candidates no shortage of opportunities to take the president to task.
本周，密歇根州的共和党联邦参议员候选人迈克·罗杰斯便成了最新例证。他呼吁结束与加拿大的“关税战”——此前他曾连续数周为总统的相关决策辩护，此次表态显然是一种立场转变。
Michigan’s GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers this week became the latest example when he called for an end to the “tariff war” with Canada — a notable shift after he spent weeks defending the president’s decision.
“迈克·罗格斯的做法非常明智……就物价承受能力问题而言，我每周收到的民调结果都显示，越来越多的人将其视为最关心的议题，”正在协助密歇根州共和党众议员汤姆·巴雷特竞选连任的该州共和党顾问杰森·罗伊说道。“显然，汽油价格上涨是伊朗战争所致；而在密歇根州，贸易战的影响则更为显著。” 罗杰斯绝非个例：佛罗里达州共和党众议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉萨尔在一段于白宫前拍摄的广告中批评了总统的移民政策；爱荷华州众议员阿什利·欣森为争取该州联邦参议员席位，也呼吁结束伊朗战争，以缓解柴油价格飙升带来的压力。
“It was brilliant by Mike Rogers … when you talk about the affordability issue, in every poll I get back, every week, more and more people have this as their top issue,” said Michigan-based GOP consultant Jason Roe, who is working on Rep. Tom Barrett’s (R-Mich.) reelection campaign. “Obviously the price of gas is a result of the Iran war, and in Michigan, more than anything else, the trade war with Canada.”Rogers is hardly the only example. Florida GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar used an ad filmed in front of the White House to call out the president’s immigration crackdown. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), in her bid to win the Iowa Senate seat,has called for an end to the Iran war amid souring diesel costs.
此外，饱受争议的得克萨斯州共和党联邦参议员候选人肯·帕克斯顿也接连出现四次泄密事件，暴露出他私下试图与特朗普及共和党全国委员会划清界限的企图。
Ken Paxton, the GOP’s embattled Texas Senate nominee, has now been the subject of four leaks exposing his private attempts to distance himself from Trump and the national party.
“一切都是以数据为导向的，”一位参与参议院竞选的共和党策略师说道。出于能坦率谈论总统的考虑，他要求匿名。“选民们已经看清了油价与通货膨胀的严峻形势。以特朗普的追随者身份参选在2026年根本行不通。对于密歇根这样的州而言，这是唯一可行的政治策略。与特朗普扯上关系只会带来负面影响。”不过也有一定限制：至今尚无共和党人彻底与特朗普决裂，不少人仍渴望能和他在台上同台亮相或进入椭圆形办公室。
“It’s just all dictated by the data,” said a GOP strategist working on a Senate campaign, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the president. “They see the writing on the wall about the gas prices and the inflation. Running as a Trump sycophant is not going to work in 2026. It’s the only political move you can do in Michigan, a state like that. It’s toxic to be tied to the man.”There are some limits: No Republican has completely broken with Trump, and several are eager to stand next to him on stage or in the Oval.
几乎没人敢直接批评他。许多人在竞选活动中以及社交媒体上依然借助与总统的关系来争取MAGA阵营的支持。
Few dare to criticize him directly. And many still lean on their ties to the president on the campaign trail and in their social media profiles as they seek to rally the MAGA base.
一位获准谈论内部意见的白宫官员则对这样一种说法嗤之以鼻：罗杰斯或其他任何候选人试图与特朗普政府的政策划清界限，就等同于与总统彻底决裂。
A White House official, granted anonymity to discuss internal thinking, scoffed at the idea that Rogers’ — or any other candidates’ — efforts to distance themselves from Trump administration policies, amounted to a major break with the president.
“如果我是候选人，而我的立场与总统的观点相悖，那我就会选择不参加这些活动，直接退出竞选。”这位官员说道。“既然正处于竞选期间，就必须就那些正在讨论的问题发表意见。”
“If I’m a candidate that’s physically trying to push away from the president, I’m not attending this stuff. I’m just gonna back away all the way,” the official said. “Being in the midst of a campaign and needing to talk to the issues that are being discussed as kitchen table topics, you just kind of have to.”
白宫发言人戴维斯·英格尔提到了特朗普政府在降低处方药价格、减税、加强边境安全以及促进就业方面的努力：“没有人能否认特朗普总统与‘MAGA’运动共同建立了政治史上最强大的联盟；他非常懂得如何与这些支持者沟通。特朗普无疑是共和党的领袖、最佳代言人，也是最出色的激励者，他致力于维持共和党在国会的多数席位。”
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle pointed to the Trump administration’s efforts to lower prescription drug costs, cut taxes, secure the border and grow job numbers: “No one can dispute the fact that President Trump has created one of the most robust coalitions in political history with the MAGA movement, and the president understands how to communicate with them. President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress.”Politicians touting their independence from Washington is nothing new. But as the poll reveals, it’s notable that so many who voted for Trump, who has been the GOP's dominant force for a decade, are ready for candidates to take that leap.
政客们宣称自己与华盛顿政府保持独立，这其实并不新鲜。但调查显示，许多曾投票给特朗普的人（特朗普在过去十年里一直是共和党的主导力量）现在愿意看到候选人们采取更独立的立场。
Much of the fracture is driven by the non-MAGA wing of his coalition, the people who voted for Trump in 2024 but do not identify as part of his most loyal base, the survey found. When asked about specific issues such as the economy, trade and tariffs, data centers, immigration and the Iran war, non-MAGA Trump voters were roughly twice as likely as MAGA Trump voters to say their GOP candidate should break from the president.
调查发现，这种分歧主要源于特朗普联盟中的“非MAGA”派系——那些在2024年投票给特朗普、但并不认为自己属于其最忠实支持者的人群。当被问及经济、贸易、关税、数据中心、移民以及伊朗战争等具体问题时，这些“非MAGA”派系的选民认为共和党候选人应该与总统保持距离的可能性是“MAGA”派系选民的两倍左右。
But Trump still retains an intense hold over the base. More than two-thirds of MAGA voters said GOP candidates should continue to align with Trump across all of those issues.
然而，特朗普仍然对其支持者拥有强大的影响力：超过三分之二的“MAGA”派系选民认为共和党候选人应在所有这些问题上继续与特朗普保持一致。
That creates a no-win situation for many Republican candidates: Tie yourself to Trump and his policies too tightly and you lose independents and non-MAGA Republicans. Break too far, and you risk leaving MAGA disenchanted.
这对许多共和党候选人来说是一个两难的局面：如果过于依赖特朗普及其政策，就会失去独立选民和非“MAGA”派的共和党人；但如果与特朗普的距离太远，又可能会让“MAGA”派系的选民感到失望。
Candidates trying to thread that needle are quick to praise the president but blame his advisers, as Salazar did, or avoid mentioning Trump by name at all.
那些试图在两者之间取得平衡的候选人，往往会迅速赞扬总统，却把责任推给其顾问团队——正如萨拉查所做的那样；或者干脆绝口不提特朗普的名字。
Roe said each candidate has to measure the “downstream effects” of a decision to distance themselves from the president, adding that it’s a balance between “alienating your base with appealing to voters that are looking for some independence.”On the campaign trail, many Republicans acknowledge that the president remains an asset in shoring up base voters crucial to November. It’s part of the reason Trump has aggressively traveled to red states — including Alabama, Alaska, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio and Texas — bastions of conservatism that need his star power to coax die-hard supporters to the polls. The White House official pointed to the president’s rally with South Carolina Senate candidate Darline Graham ahead of her run-off as an example of Trump’s ability to juice turnout.
罗伊指出，每位候选人都必须权衡“疏远总统”这一决定所带来的后续影响。他补充道，这需要在“疏远自己的核心选民”与“吸引那些希望看到候选人保持独立立场的选民”之间找到平衡点。在竞选活动中，许多共和党人承认，总统依然是争取核心选民的关键助力，而这些选民对11月的大选至关重要。正因如此，特朗普才频繁造访阿拉巴马、阿拉斯加、艾奥瓦、内布拉斯加州、俄亥俄以及德克萨斯等保守派大本营，借助自身影响力促使铁杆支持者踊跃投票。
这位白宫官员还以特朗普在南卡罗来纳州参议院决选前与候选人达琳·格雷厄姆共同举行的集会为例，说明特朗普在提升投票率方面的强大作用。
RNC press secretary Natalie Baldassarre insisted that Republicans “remain united behind the president’s agenda” and are “laser focused on winning.”“Our candidates will run the races necessary to best represent their districts and prevent Democrats from taking control,” she said.
共和党全国委员会新闻秘书娜塔莉·巴尔达萨雷坚称，共和党人“始终团结在总统的议程之下”，并且“一心致力于赢得大选”。“我们的候选人会竭尽全力竞选，以最好地代表各自选区，防止民主党人掌控政权，”她说道。
The president is telling voters to “pretend” he is on the ballot, and he has insisted the party is already in a better place as he blitzes states across the country, touting his economy and arguing that higher prices are a small price to pay for national security amid the lingering war with Iran.
特朗普则呼吁选民“就当他也在竞选”，他还声称，随着自己在全国各地频繁奔走、大力宣传经济成果，共和党目前的处境已大为改观。他辩称，在与伊朗的战争尚未结束之际，物价上涨不过是保障国家安全所必须付出的微小代价。
But some candidates are still nervous that if they campaign beside the president, they could alienate undecided voters. Some Republicans have encouraged Trump’s team not to send the president to a blue-leaning Omaha district and other key districts where his approval rating is underwater ahead of Election Day.
不过，仍有部分候选人忧心忡忡：若与总统并肩竞选，可能会疏远那些尚未决定投票意向的选民。一些共和党人甚至建议特朗普团队，在大选来临前，不要安排总统前往倾向民主党阵营的奥马哈地区以及其他他支持率低迷的关键选区。
“I don’t think there are that many candidates who are clamoring for Trump to come to their state. But to the extent they do, it’s a gamble that they’ve already lost the voters who are gonna vote against them, and they need to light a fire under the voters who are sitting it out, and he’s the torch,” said Democratic strategist David Axelrod, who was chief strategist for Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign. “The problem is the torch can burn the whole house down.”The damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t dilemma is perhaps best captured with Paxton’s campaign in Texas. On Wednesday, Trump took the stage in San Antonio, bringing up Paxton, the same day his latest closed-door comments complaining about the Iran war and high prices dragging down his campaign went public.
“我认为没多少候选人会迫切希望特朗普能到自己所在的州。不过，即便有这样的人，这其实也是一场赌博：他们早已失去了那些会投票反对自己的选民，因此需要激发那些持观望态度的选民的积极性，而特朗普就是那把点燃火种的火炬，”曾担任奥巴马2008年竞选首席战略师的民主党策略师戴维·阿克塞尔罗德说道。“问题在于，这把火炬有可能把整栋房子都烧毁。”
这种进退两难的困境在得克萨斯州的帕克斯顿竞选活动中体现得最为明显。周三，特朗普在圣安东尼奥登台演讲，期间提到了帕克斯顿；就在同一天，帕克斯顿此前私下里抱怨伊朗战争及高物价拖累了自己竞选活动的言论也被公之于众。然而，当与特朗普同台时，帕克斯顿的言辞却大不相同。
But standing on stage with Trump, he struck a much different tune.
“哇，能和美国总统同台是什么感觉？真是太棒了，”他说道。“总统先生，我要感谢您为我而来、为我们而来、也为得克萨斯州而来。”
“Wow, what is it like to be up on stage with the president of the United States? Pretty amazing,” he said. “Mr. President, I want to thank you for coming for me, for coming for us and for coming for Texas.”