伦敦，10月9日——“没有协议比糟糕的协议更好”这句话，让人回想起英国前领导人特雷莎·梅那场不幸的脱欧谈判。但这句话与欧盟贸易委员马罗什·谢夫乔维奇本周与中国贸易伙伴进行的贸易会谈高度相关。对于正在快速去工业化的欧洲而言，最大的危险既没有来自北京的实质性约束，也没有能够促使成员国围绕特定行业政策采取一致行动的报复措施。
LONDON, Oct 9 - "No deal is better than a bad deal" conjures up bad memories of former UK leader Theresa May's ill-fated Brexit negotiations. But it's highly relevant to trade talks European Union Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič held with his Chinese counterpart this week. For a rapidly deindustrialising Europe, the biggest danger is having neither meaningful restraint from Beijing nor retaliation that aligns member states along sector-specific industrial policies.
直到最近，法国对保护主义的要求还与德国注重竞争力以及面向中国进行贸易的立场发生冲突。然而，周一，两国共同签署了一份文件，主张“扩大关键战略领域的生产能力”，加快反补贴和反倾销调查，并引入两种新工具：一种“多元化工具”，要求企业分散供应链；另一种则是“紧急制动机制”，以便迅速应对报复措施。
Until recently, France's demands for protectionism clashed with Germany's focus on competitiveness and selling to and from China. On Monday, however, both co-signed a document arguing for "expanding production capacities in key strategic sectors", speeding up anti-subsidy and anti-dumping investigations, and introducing two new tools: a "diversification instrument" forcing firms to spread out supply chains, and a kill switch to quickly counteract retaliation.
根据LSEG Datastream的数据，自2019年以来，欧盟从中国进口的制造业产品增长了44%，而出口则下降了55%。欧洲的化学和汽车产量分别下降了20%和13%。
Since 2019, EU manufacturing imports from China have risen 44%, while exports have fallen 55%, according to LSEG Datastream. Europe's chemical and auto output is down 20% and 13%, respectively.
理论上，成员国采取更强硬立场将赋予欧盟对北京的谈判筹码，而北京长期以来都将欧洲的威胁视为无足轻重。随着美国、印度和巴西设置更高的贸易壁垒，欧盟20万亿欧元的经济体已成为最后一个大型开放市场。最理想的结果是，北京接受在混合动力汽车等领域实施关税配额，限制包括出口退税在内的补贴，给予欧洲企业平等的采购和许可准入权，并接受真正实现技术转让的合资合作。而在最坏的情况下，中国可能再次切断稀土供应。
In theory, a harder member-state line gives the EU leverage against Beijing, which has long treated European threats as toothless. With the United States, India, and Brazil erecting higher barriers, the EU's €20 trillion economy is the last big open market. A best-case outcome would see Beijing accept tariff-rate quotas in sectors like hybrid vehicles, curb subsidies including export rebates grant European firms equal access to procurement and licencing, and accept joint ventures with genuine technology transfer. In a worst-case one, China could cut off rare earths again.
周五发表的一份声明中，中国商务部表示，双方已达成更多折中协议，包括扩大市场准入、简化稀土出口许可证审批流程，以及以符合世界贸易组织规则的方式交易混合动力汽车。此类半吊子措施的风险在于，欧盟领导人若在下周会议中未能保持势头，可能导致进展停滞。他们不断推出新的政策工具，并将行业问题与谴责人民币廉价及中国消费疲软等问题混为一谈——而这些问题与欧洲自身竞争力的衰退仅存在间接关联——表明他们试图一次性解决过多问题。
statement on Friday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce suggested more middle-of-the road agreements had been reached, including expanding market access, facilitating export-licence approval for rare earths and trading hybrids in a manner consistent with World Trade Organization rules. The danger of such half-measures is that EU leaders meeting next week let momentum slip. The constant devising of new policy tools, and the mixing of sectoral issues with denouncing a cheap yuan and weak Chinese consumption — issues only indirectly connected to eroding European capacity — suggests they are trying to solve too many problems at once.
事实上，法德联合文件中提出的内容，布鲁塞尔大多早已具备实施条件，包括投入更多资源，通过世贸组织挑战中国的补贴。2023年批准的“反胁迫工具”实际上已是一套紧急制动机制。
Indeed, there is little proposed in the Franco-German document that Brussels couldn't already do, including devoting more resources to challenge Chinese subsidies through the WTO. The "anti-coercion instrument " approved in 2023 is already a kill switch.
这是因为真正的关键谈判对象并非中国——中国不会放弃其增长模式——而是那些不愿放弃“基于规则、不偏袒输赢”秩序理念的欧洲人。就在两年前，德国还投票反对对中国产电动汽车征收关税。如今，总理弗里德里希·默茨所在政党的议员们仍反对“欧洲优先采购”政策，而西班牙和匈牙利则正积极吸引中国将其作为组装基地。
This is because the key negotiation isn't with China, which won't give up on its growth model, but with Europeans unwilling to abandon the idea of a rules-based order that avoids picking winners and losers. Only two years ago, Germany voted against tariffs on Chinese battery-electric cars. Today, lawmakers from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's party still oppose "Buy Europe" policies, while Spain and Hungary court China as an assembly base.
即便如此，诸如宝马第二季度在华销量同比下滑30%等冲击，不可避免地推动欧洲向协调贸易与产业政策的方向迈进。布鲁塞尔今年7月实施的钢铁行业监管机制，实际上扩展了世贸组织规则与自由贸易协定的适用范围，标志着特定行业保护主义的一个转折点。下一步合乎逻辑的做法，是将任何针对中国混合动力汽车的限制措施，与法国式的欧洲制造汽车购买激励政策相结合。即便中国在最坏情况下对稀土实施报复，将造成严重损害，但至少会迫使欧洲各国共同应对自身的生存危机。
Even so, shocks such as BMW sales in China falling 30% year-on-year in the second quarter inevitably drag Europe toward aligning trade and industrial policy. Brussels' steel regime enacted in July, which stretches WTO rules and free-trade agreements, was a watershed in sector-specific protection. The next logical step is to combine any curbs on Chinese hybrid vehicles with French-style incentives to buy European-made cars. Even if a worst-case Chinese retaliation on rare earths would be highly damaging, it would at least force Europeans to solve their existential crisis together.
欧盟贸易委员马罗什·谢夫乔维奇（Maroš Šefčovič）于10月8日前往北京，出席欧盟-中国贸易与投资理事会第二次会议。他与中方商务部长王文涛共同主持了此次会议，并计划在北京停留至10月9日。布鲁塞尔将此次访问视为从北京争取工业产能过剩、市场准入和稀土出口限制等方面让步的关键机会。
Follow Jon Sindreu on European Union Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič travelled to Beijing on October 8 for the second meeting of the EU-China Trade and Investment Council, which he co-chaired with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, and is set to remain there until October 9. Brussels has marked the trip as a key opportunity to secure concessions from Beijing on industrial overcapacity, market access and rare-earth export restrictions.
法国和德国于10月5日致信欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩（Ursula von der Leyen），主张设立一项新的“关闭开关”，以便欧盟能够切断中国对其市场的准入。随后，双方发布了一份文件，进一步详细说明了扩大对华贸易调查、加强贸易防御措施以及多样化欧洲供应链的方法，同时敦促各成员国为可能出现的反制措施做好准备。10月7日，欧洲议会投票谴责中国的经济实践及其对俄罗斯在乌克兰战争所持的立场，从而在北京会谈前进一步加大了压力。
France and Germany wrote a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on October 5, arguing for a new "kill switch" that would allow the EU to cut off access to its market. This was followed by a document providing further detail on ways to expand trade investigations into China, strengthen trade-defence measures and diversify European supply chains, while urging member states to prepare for possible retaliation. On October 7, the European Parliament voted to denounce China's economic practices and its position on Russia's war in Ukraine, adding to the pressure ahead of the Beijing talks.
《金融时报》于10月7日援引两位了解该计划的外交官消息报道称，中国拒绝自愿限制向欧盟出口混合动力汽车。而限制此类汽车出口曾是布鲁塞尔希望避免扩大现有关税范围（目前该关税已涵盖中国生产的纯电动汽车）的举措之一。
The Financial Times reported on October 7, citing two diplomats briefed on the plan, that China has refused to voluntarily restrict exports of hybrid cars to the EU, which had been one of Brussels' hopes to avoid an expansion of the tariffs that already cover Chinese battery-electric vehicles.
欧盟领导人下一次会议——欧洲理事会会议将于10月15日开始，届时可能会明确欧盟与中国关系发展的下一步方向。
The next meeting of EU leaders, the European Council, will start on October 15, and may set out the next steps in the bloc's relationship with China.