受美国总统唐纳德·特朗普称俄罗斯和乌克兰已同意立即实施“能源停火”影响，小麦连续第四日下跌，市场希望敌对行动缓解可能减少黑海地区的供应中断。
Wheat declined for a fourth day after US President Donald Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an immediate “energy ceasefire,” raising hopes that an easing of hostilities could reduce Black Sea disruptions.
芝加哥期货一度下跌1.3%，随后略有回升。俄罗斯和乌克兰合计占全球小麦出口的四分之一以上，使得黑海成为全球供应的关键通道。美国农业部（USDA）意外上调玉米产量预测，进一步压制谷物价格。
Futures fell as much as 1.3% in Chicago before paring some losses. Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, making the Black Sea critical to world supplies. US Department of Agriculture unexpectedly raising corn output forecasts also pressured grain prices.
“能源因素不一定是主要原因，只是市场正受到缓和局势总体趋势的影响，”Futures International LLC商品销售主管Joe Davis表示。
“The energy component isn’t necessarily why, just the general theme of de-escalation is weighing on the market,” Joe Davis, director of commodity sales at Futures International LLC.
最近几周，港口基础设施遭到升级的冲突和袭击，严重扰乱了船运，迫使亚洲到非洲的买家寻求替代供应来源，往往需要绕行更远路线并支付更高溢价。
Escalating hostilities and strikes on port infrastructure in recent weeks have severely disrupted shipments, forcing buyers from Asia to Africa to seek alternative supplies, often over longer routes and at higher premiums.
特朗普在周日宣布了这一停火协议，但未提供细节。乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基表示乌克兰支持停火，但正“等待详情”。交易员将密切关注莫斯科和基辅的确认情况，以及该协议是否可能带来更广泛的敌对行动缓解。
Trump announced the truce on Sunday but provided few details. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country supports the ceasefire but is “awaiting details.”Traders will be watching for confirmation from Moscow and Kyiv and signs that the agreement could lead to a broader easing of hostilities.
如果敌对行动持续减少，航运安全得到改善且黑海出口恢复，则可能移除小麦的一部分地缘政治风险溢价。但能源停火本身不会自动保护谷物基础设施或商船，因此船运前景仍然不确定。
A sustained reduction in hostilities could remove some of wheat’s geopolitical risk premium, particularly if shipping becomes safer and Black Sea exports recover. Still, an energy ceasefire wouldn’t automatically protect grain infrastructure or commercial vessels, leaving the outlook for shipments uncertain.
USDA的看跌信号也在压制谷物价格。Davis表示：“且接下来一个月将面临收获压力，行情反弹将非常困难。”周五，玉米因USDA上调该国首要作物的产量和产出预测，录得三年来最大单日跌幅，抛售波及小麦，小麦一度下跌3.2%。
Bearish signals from the USDA are also weighing on grain prices, Davis said. “And with harvest pressure for the next month it’s going to be hard to rally.”Corn posted its biggest drop in three years on Friday after the USDA raised its yield and production forecasts for the country’s top crop. The selloff spilled into wheat, which fell as much as 3.2%.