基辅，乌克兰 — 乌克兰正争分夺秒地争取足够的爱国者拦截弹药，以阻止今冬俄罗斯的弹道导弹，通过整合盟军库存转移、新生产协议以及本土拦截弹药项目，尽可能快速地完成准备，以防寒冷到来。
KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine is scrambling to secure enough Patriot interceptors to stop Russian ballistic missiles this winter, piecing together allied stockpile transfers, new production agreements and a homegrown interceptor program as quickly as possible before the cold sets in.
此举正值全球乌克兰最需要的武器出现短缺之际。北约官员在八月表示，由于库存被转移到中东以支援伊朗战争，欧洲的美军面临着“超临界”级别的爱国者拦截弹药短缺。
The push comes as the world runs short on the weapons Ukraine needs most. U.S. forces in Europe face a “beyond critical” shortage of Patriot interceptors after stocks were moved to the Middle East for the Iran war, a NATO official said in August.
乌克兰也在为另一个冬天的俄罗斯能源网络袭击做准备，这一行动越来越依赖于喷气动力的沙赫德无人机，其速度远超乌克兰过去用于拦截旧型号无人机的廉价拦截无人机。
Ukraine is also bracing for another winter of Russian strikes on its energy grid, a campaign that increasingly relies on jet-powered Shahed drones too fast for most of the cheap interceptor drones Ukraine has used to stop older models.
“俄罗斯几乎只使用喷气动力的沙赫德无人机袭击基辅，因为我们过去用于对抗旧一代无人机的拦截系统的拦截率约为90%，”乌克兰拦截弹药开发商格里姆科技（Grim Tech）的一位经理上个月对《国防新闻》表示。
“Russia uses almost only jet-powered Shaheds to attack Kyiv because the interceptors that we were using in the past against older generations of drones had an interception rate of around 90%,” a manager at Ukrainian interceptor developer Grim Tech told Defense News last month.
这些更快的无人机迫使乌克兰在试图为弹道威胁节约爱国者弹药的同时，消耗稀缺且昂贵的导弹 — — 根据乌克兰官员的说法，这是对抗俄罗斯更难以拦截的弹道导弹的唯一可靠选择。
The faster drones force Ukraine to expend scarce and expensive missiles just as it tries to conserve Patriot ammunition for ballistic threats — the only reliable option against Russia’s even harder-to-stop ballistic missiles, according to Ukrainian officials.
“弹道导弹尤其难以应对，”乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基在周三晚上一次大规模空中袭击后表示，当时俄罗斯向基辅及另外12个地区发射了70枚导弹，其中许多是弹道导弹，并伴随沙赫德无人机的波浪式袭击。
“Ballistic missiles are especially difficult to deal with,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said after a massive aerial barrage on Wednesday night saw Russia fire 70 missiles, many of them ballistic, and waves of Shahed drones at Kyiv and 12 other regions.
根据乌克兰空军的报告，士兵击落了48枚巡航导弹中的39枚，但仅击落了5枚弹道导弹。泽连斯基在电报上写道，袭击造成至少32人死亡，超过100人受伤。
Soldiers downed 39 of the 48 cruise missiles but only five ballistic missiles, according to Ukraine’s air force. At least 32 people were killed in the attacks, and over 100 were injured, Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram.
2026年大部分时间里，乌克兰平民伤亡呈月度上升趋势。联合国监察员核实，8月有372名平民丧生、2349人受伤，仅次于7月，远程导弹和无人机造成了47%的伤亡。
Civilian casualties in Ukraine have risen monthly throughout most of 2026. U.N. monitors verified 372 civilians killed and 2,349 injured in August, second only to July, with long-range missiles and drones causing 47% of the toll.
基辅正在拼凑一套反弹道防空方案，各个环节的时间表各不相同：从盟友库存调拨的弹药用于今冬，进口系统和授权生产将在未来几年内开始发挥作用，还有仍在研发中的乌克兰-欧洲联合拦截弹“弗雷亚”。
Kyiv is assembling a patchwork of antiballistic air defense solutions, each piece on a different clock: Rounds transferred from allied stocks for this winter, imported systems and licensed production that will begin to matter over the next several years, and Freyja, a Ukrainian-European interceptor still in development.
库存互换 最快的解决办法取决于盟友共享现有库存，国防部长叶夫亨·赫马拉在9月8日首次乌克兰国防联络小组会议上向盟友提出了这一请求。
Stockpile swaps The fastest fix depends on allies sharing existing stockpiles, a request Defense Minister Yevhen Khmara put forward at his first Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting with allies on Sept. 8.
赫马拉表示，基辅近几个月已签署约1000枚“爱国者”导弹的合同，但大多数要数年后才会交付。
Kyiv has signed contracts for roughly 1,000 Patriot missiles in recent months, but most will not ship for years, Khmara said.
他请求合作伙伴现在从库存中提供300枚拦截弹，并提出用那些合同中的新型导弹作为替代。
He asked partners for 300 interceptors from their stockpiles now, offering newer missiles from those contracts as replacements.
“弹道导弹威胁的情况要困难得多。而这种困难正是由于缺乏‘爱国者’导弹，”他告诉盟友。
“The situation with ballistics is much more difficult. And that difficulty is precisely down to the lack of Patriot missiles,” he told allies.
德国回应了赫马拉的呼吁，承诺从联邦国防军库存中提供数量未透露的PAC-2拦截弹。
Germany answered Khmara’s call by promising an undisclosed number of PAC-2 interceptors from Bundeswehr stocks.
据英国政府称，英国通过北约的“乌克兰优先需求清单”（PURL）承诺提供1亿英镑，用于采购“爱国者”导弹和其他防空装备，旨在冬季前抵达。
Britain committed £100 million through NATO’s Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) for Patriot missiles and other air-defense equipment intended to arrive before winter, according to the British government.
但一位熟悉该援助包的消息人士告诉路透社，美国在财年结束前动用近4亿美元即将过期的“乌克兰安全援助倡议”资金时，并未将“爱国者”导弹纳入其中。
But the United States did not include Patriot missiles in the nearly $400 million in expiring Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative money it moved to obligate before the fiscal year ended, a source familiar with the package told Reuters.
现有反弹道拦截弹的产量激增“乌克兰不仅准备为自身需求生产弹道导弹拦截弹，还准备通过联合生产加强美国及其盟友的实力，”泽连斯基在基辅与美国国会代表团最近一次会晤后在X上写道。
Surging production of existing antiballistic interceptors“Ukraine is ready not only to produce ballistic missile interceptors for its own needs, but also to strengthen the United States and its allies through joint production,” Zelenskyy wrote on X after a recent meeting with a U.S. congressional delegation in Kyiv.
欧洲和美国正在与乌克兰进行谈判，以启动爱国者导弹系统和法意Aster 30的联合制造计划，双方都在讨论提升产能。
Both Europe and the U.S. are in talks with Ukraine to begin ramping up joint manufacturing initiatives for both the Patriot missile system and the Franco-Italian Aster 30.
泽连斯基9月25日表示，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普已作出最终政治决定，授予乌克兰生产爱国者导弹的许可证。但华盛顿及制造商尚未公开透露具体型号、乌克兰的工作分工、生产地点或首批交付日期。
Zelenskyy said Sept. 25 that U.S. President Donald Trump made a final political decision to grant Ukraine licenses to produce Patriot missiles. But Washington and manufacturers have not publicly identified the variant, Ukraine’s workshare, production site or first-delivery date.
洛克希德·马丁公司表示，其目标是将自身每年PAC-3 MSE的产能从大约600枚导弹提升至2030年的2000枚，而波音公司的一项147亿美元合同将使拦截弹的寻求器产量翻三倍。
Lockheed Martin said it aims to raise its own annual PAC-3 MSE capacity from roughly 600 missiles to 2,000 by 2030, while a $14.7 billion Boeing contract would triple production of the interceptor’s seeker.
德国计划开始PAC-2 GEM-T的生产，且柏林已单独向华盛顿和洛克希德·马丁提出申请，希望在德国开展PAC-3 MSE的生产，但该提议目前仍未得到解决。
Germany is scheduled to begin PAC-2 GEM-T production, and Berlin has separately asked Washington and Lockheed Martin to permit PAC-3 MSE production in Germany, but that proposal remains unresolved.
法国和意大利在7月的一份联合声明中同意，在2026年底前授权在乌克兰进行Aster 30拦截弹的许可生产，并向基辅提供四套SAMP/T NG系统 — — 成为首个实战用户。
France and Italy agreed in a joint declaration in July to authorize licensed production of Aster 30 interceptors in Ukraine before the end of 2026, along with providing Kyiv with four SAMP/T NG systems — becoming their first combat user.
法国还承诺提供两套临时SAMP/T系统，并在年底前交付GF300雷达，自2027年起开始逐步部署SAMP/T NG系统。
France also committed two interim SAMP/T complexes, a GF300 radar before year’s end and progressive SAMP/T NG deployment beginning in 2027.
主权之赌：弗雷亚乌克兰和欧洲正在寻求一种名为“弗雷亚”的新武器，作为长期解决方案。
The sovereignty bet: Freyja Ukraine and Europe are looking to a new weapon called “Frejya” as a longer-term solution.
弗雷亚是一款由乌克兰设计的弹道导弹拦截系统，以Fire Point的FP-7.X导弹为核心，包含拦截弹、发射装置、雷达以及指挥控制网络。
Freyja is a Ukrainian-designed ballistic interceptor built around Fire Point’s FP-7.X missile, including an interceptor, launcher, radar and command-and-control network.
它的价格大约为每发100万美元，约为PAC-3 MSE成本的四分之一，并且设计为可直接接入已部署的北约标准雷达和指挥所。
It’s priced at roughly $1 million per round, about one-quarter of the cost of a PAC-3 MSE, and designed to plug into NATO-standard radars and command posts already in the field.
FP-7.X于今年6月初首次试飞，旨在使用高爆破片弹头在大约15英里高空击毁弹道目标，而非采用PAC-3的击毁碰撞方式——该方式可能出现在后续版本中——其目标价格为每枚拦截弹约70万美元，约为PAC-3价格的五分之一。
The FP-7.X flew for the first time in early June and is built to kill ballistic targets at roughly 15 miles up using a high-explosive fragmentation warhead rather than the PAC-3’s hit-to-kill collision — which may come in later versions — at a target price of approximately $700,000 per interceptor, or roughly one-fifth the price of a PAC-3.
该公司表示，将从8月起每天生产三枚拦截弹。泽连斯基希望该系统在一年内投入运行，而联盟正瞄准在2027年底实现首次真实弹道拦截。
The company says it will build three interceptors a day starting in August. Zelenskyy wants the system up and running within a year, and the coalition is targeting its first real ballistic intercept for the end of 2027.
泽连斯基于今年7月在巴黎与九个欧洲国家共同启动了该倡议——并且该行动仍在持续扩大。
Zelenskyy launched the initiative with nine European countries in Paris in July — and the effort is still growing.
波兰于9月17日加入该组织，时间紧随加拿大总理马克·卡尼告诉泽连斯基，渥太华将向弗雷亚系统提供其技术，并向基辅提供一个更广泛的援助套餐，其中包括3.5亿加元的拦截弹。
Poland joined the group on Sept. 17, a week after Canadian PM Mark Carney told Zelenskyy that Ottawa would contribute its technologies to Freyja along with providing Kyiv with a broader package that includes C$350 million in interceptors.
据Militarnyi报道，欧盟正在单独考虑对该计划提供直接资金，以补充各国的捐助。
The EU is separately weighing direct funding for the program on top of national contributions, according to Militarnyi.