曼谷：国际货币基金组织周二（10月13日）表示，尽管中东战争导致的能源冲击持续，但全球经济仍将凭借强劲的人工智能投资实现今年实际GDP增长超过3%，然而下行风险正在加剧，越来越多的国家被甩在后面，面临债务负担上升的脆弱性。
BANGKOK: The global economy will still manage to top 3 per cent real GDP growth this year as strong AI investment offsets the energy shock from the war in the Middle East, but downside risks are mounting and more countries are being left behind and vulnerable to rising debt loads, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday (Oct 13).
尽管冲突持续时间更长，导致油价维持在每桶100美元以上，国际货币基金组织仍预测2026年全球增长率为3.1%，较其7月预测的3.0%略有上升。
Despite a more protracted conflict that has kept oil prices above US$100 a barrel the IMF is forecasting 2026 global growth at 3.1 per cent, a slight uptick from the 3.0 per cent it predicted in July.
世界经济展望报告于全球经济和金融领导人齐聚曼谷参加国际货币基金组织和世界银行年会之际发布，该报告的预测与4月份发布的最乐观情景持平，但低于2025年全球增长率3.5%的预测。
The World Economic Outlook forecast, released as global economic and finance leaders gather in Bangkok for the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, is about even with the most optimistic scenario issued in April but below 2025 global growth of 3.5 per cent.
国际货币基金组织预测2027年全球增长率为3.4%，与7月的预测持平，较4月的预测上升0.2个百分点。
For 2027, the IMF predicts 3.4 per cent global growth, flat with the July forecast and up 0.2 percentage points from April.
这种略微的改善主要源于人工智能基础设施投资的持续强劲，这推动了关键发达经济体在构建人工智能平台方面的增长上调，尤其是为供应人工智能硬件的国家，包括韩国、马来西亚、墨西哥和泰国——后者正在本周举办此次会议。
The slight improvement is largely due to continued strong investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, prompting growth upgrades for key advanced economies building AI platforms and especially for countries supplying AI hardware, including South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico and Thailand, which is hosting the meetings this week.
“全球经济表现出韧性，但这种韧性正承受压力，增长风险正向下倾斜，”国际货币基金组织新任首席经济学家西尔瓦纳·特内雷罗对记者表示。
"The global economy has been resilient, but that resilience is under strain, with risks to growth tilted to the downside," the IMF's new chief economist, Silvana Tenreyro, told reporters.
“中东的长期冲突可能会对通胀造成额外压力并拖慢增长。财政前景恶化、对人工智能盈利能力的重新评估以及极端天气事件都可能进一步削弱前景，”她补充道。
"A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could put additional pressures on inflation and slow down growth. A worsening of fiscal prospects, a reassessment of AI profitability, and extreme weather events could further weaken the outlook," she added.
国际货币基金组织副研究主任佩特娅·科娃·布鲁克斯在接受路透社采访时表示，各国和企业迅速采取行动以减轻油价冲击的影响，通过动用储备、替换其他供应商和能源以及削减石油需求来应对。她表示，若没有这些措施，全球增长率本应降至今年的2.5%，但随着战争持续，这些措施的效果正在减弱。
Countries and companies moved quickly to mitigate the oil price shock, drawing down reserves, substituting other suppliers and energy sources and cutting oil demand, Petya Koeva Brooks, the IMF's deputy research director, told Reuters in an interview. She said global growth would have fallen to 2.5 per cent this year without these measures, but their effect is fading as the war drags on.
国际货币基金组织指出，受益于人工智能的国家与被人工智能排除在外的国家之间出现了日益扩大的分化。目前仅有32个国家贡献了全球增长的95%，而4月份这一数字为54个国家。
The IMF noted a growing divergence between countries benefiting from AI and those bypassed by it. Just 32 countries now account for 95 per cent of global growth, compared to 54 countries in April.
下调增长预期的趋势正变得越来越普遍，国际货币基金组织自4月发布预测以来，已将47%的经济体的增长预期下调，其中包括若干不在人工智能价值链内的能源进口国。
Downward growth revisions have become more widespread, with the IMF downgrading 47 per cent of economies since the April forecasts were issued, including several energy importers outside AI value chains.
受下调影响最严重的是直接受美以对伊战争冲击的海湾国家，沙特阿拉伯今年的国内生产总值预计将收缩3.3%，而7月份的预测仍为1.7%的增长。
Hardest hit by downgrades were the Gulf countries directly impacted by the US-Israeli war against Iran with Saudi Arabia's GDP now forecast to contract 3.3 per cent this year compared with the 1.7 per cent growth predicted in July.
伊朗、伊拉克、科威特、卡塔尔和阿拉伯联合酋长国也预计将陷入深度衰退，2026年的收缩幅度分别为7.6%、16%、16.7%、15.6%和3.9%。
Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are also expected to fall into deep recessions, with 2026 contractions of 7.6 per cent, 16 per cent, 16.7 per cent, 15.6 per cent and 3.9 per cent, respectively.
美国持平，欧洲有所改善 在主要经济体中，国际货币基金组织预测美国2026年和2027年的增长率均为2.3%，较今年持平，较明年高0.1个百分点。美国经济预计将得到强劲的私人消费、减税和人工智能投资的支持，尽管人工智能带来的提振将被其高进口含量所抵消。
UNITED STATES FLAT, IMPROVEMENT IN EUROPE Among major economies, the IMF forecast US growth of 2.3 per cent for both 2026 and 2027, unchanged for this year and 0.1 percentage point higher for next year. The US economy is expected to be supported by robust private consumption, tax cuts and AI investment, though the boost from AI will be offset by its large import content.
欧元区2026年的增长预期从7月的0.9%上调至1.1%，原因是人工智能领域的投资更为强劲，参与人工智能价值链（如德国的化工生产），以及欧盟国家国防支出增加。英国2026年的增长预测也较7月上调了0.3个百分点，达到1.3%，原因是人工智能投资更大。
Eurozone growth for 2026 was upgraded to 1.1 per cent from 0.9 per cent in July due to stronger investment in AI, participation in AI value chains such as chemical production in Germany, and higher defence spending in EU countries. Britain's 2026 growth forecast also was upgraded by 0.3 percentage points from July to 1.3 per cent due to larger AI investment.
IMF预测中国2026年增长率为4.5%，2027年为4.0%，较7月预测均下调0.1个百分点。尽管出口强劲，但受油价上涨推动的国内需求疲弱影响，增长放缓。
The IMF forecast China's growth at 4.5 per cent for 2026 and 4.0 per cent for 2027, both down 0.1 percentage point from July, as higher oil prices exacerbate weak domestic demand despite strong exports.
印度仍是全球增长最快的主要经济体，2026年和2027年均保持7.0%的增长率，较7月预测分别上调0.6个百分点和0.3个百分点，得益于国内需求旺盛、服务业活动活跃以及人工智能投资增加。
India remains the world's fastest-growing major economy at 7.0 per cent for both 2026 and 2027, up 0.6 percentage point this year and 0.3 percentage point next year compared with the July forecasts amid robust domestic demand, services activity and AI investment.
人工智能投资激增预计将对价格形成上行压力，全球 headline 消费者物价通胀率预计2026年为4.7%，2027年为4.1%。
The AI investment surge is projected to keep upward pressure on prices, with global headline consumer price inflation forecast at 4.7 per cent in 2026 and 4.1 per cent for 2027.
能源价格与人工智能风险：在曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织和世界银行会议上，与会者将评估前景的不确定性。IMF的预测基于以下假设：霍尔木兹海峡将于2027年3月重新开放，并在2027年10月前恢复战前航运条件。IMF假设2026年平均油价为每桶96美元，2027年为每桶87美元。
ENERGY PRICE, AI RISKS Participants at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok will be assessing a precarious outlook. The IMF forecasts are based on assumptions that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in March 2027 with a broad return to pre-war shipping conditions occurring by October 2027. The IMF assumes an average oil price of US$96 per barrel for 2026 and US$87 in 2027.
但报告中指出的不利情景显示，若战争恶化导致油价在2027年第一季度升至每桶130美元，则2026年增长将下降0.2个百分点，2027年增长将下降0.5个百分点。2027年通胀率将进一步上升1.1个百分点，达到5.2%。
But under an adverse scenario highlighted in the report, in which a worsening war pushes oil prices to US$130 per barrel through the first quarter of 2027, growth would be reduced by 0.2 percentage point in 2026 and 0.5 percentage point in 2027. Inflation in 2027 would surge by another 1.1 percentage point to 5.2 per cent.
报告还指出，人工智能也是不确定性的重要来源，既存在下行风险也存在上行风险。在技术采用加速、投资提速的情景下，全球GDP可能在2029年进一步提升0.6%，其中美国和中国将获得主要收益。
AI is also a huge source of uncertainty, with major downside and upside risks, the IMF report said. Under a scenario of faster adoption of the technology and accelerated investment, global GDP could rise a further 0.6 per cent by 2029, with the bulk of the benefits going to the US and China.
但如果人工智能带来的生产率提升未能实现，导致投资大幅下降，美国GDP可能直接下降0.8%，并对亚洲科技出口国产生溢出效应，到2028年其直接GDP影响总额可能高达0.4%。
But if productivity gains from AI fail to materialise, prompting a sharp decline in investment, US GDP could fall by 0.8 per cent directly, causing spillovers to Asian technology exporters with a total direct GDP impact of as much as 0.4 per cent by 2028.
IMF表示，这种转变还将引发资产价格急剧下降和金融状况收紧，从而导致消费大幅下降，尤其是在美国。全球债券收益率上升将进一步削弱经济活动，到2028年，全球产出将合计下降1.1%，其中美国产出将下降1.8%。
This shift would also trigger a sharp reduction in asset prices and tighter financial conditions that cause a major drop in consumption, particularly in the US, the IMF said. Higher global bond yields would further reduce activity, with a combined global output reduction of 1.1 per cent by 2028, including a 1.8 per cent drop in US output.
IMF还警告称，特别是在发达经济体中，公共债务水平居高不下，增加了借贷成本急剧上升的风险，这可能会拖累增长前景。IMF敦促各国政府停止拖延行动，重建财政缓冲，并制定可信的中期计划，将债务恢复到可持续水平——IMF官员计划在曼谷会议上推动这一建议。
The IMF also warned that elevated public debt levels, particularly in advanced economies, increase the risk of sharply higher borrowing costs that can weigh on growth prospects. It urged governments to stop delaying action to rebuild fiscal buffers and articulate credible medium-term plans to bring debt back to sustainable levels - advice that IMF officials plan to push at the Bangkok meetings.