国际货币基金组织周二预测，由于发达经济体在战争推动的能源价格冲击中表现出“韧性”，2026年全球增长放缓幅度将低于此前预期，但警告称低收入国家仍面临供给冲击的脆弱性。
IMF upgrades 2026 growth forecast but warns of 'split' outlook The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday forecast that global growth in 2026 would slow less than previously expected due to advanced economies' "resilience" in the face of war-fuelled energy prices, but warned that low-income countries remained vulnerable to the supply shock.
该基金在曼谷举行的年会上发布的《世界经济展望报告》（WEO）中，将2026年全球增长预测从3.0%上调0.1个百分点至3.1%，而2025年的增长率为3.5%。
In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) released at the organization's Annual Meetings in Bangkok, the Fund raised its 2026 global growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1 percent, compared to 3.5 percent growth in 2025.
IMF警告称，虽然许多发达经济体因人工智能（AI）技术投资增加而受益，但未能从这一繁荣中获益的贫困国家正面临艰难抉择，因为它们正承受因美国对伊朗战争导致的高能源价格压力。
The IMF warned that while many advanced economies have been buoyed by rising investment in artificial intelligence (AI) technology, poorer countries that are not benefiting from that boom face stark choices as they deal with high energy prices due to the US war on Iran.
“全球经济表现出韧性，但这种韧性正承受压力，增长风险倾向于下行，”IMF首席经济学家西尔瓦纳·特内雷罗表示。
"The global economy has been resilient, but that resilience is under strain, with risks to growth tilted to the downside," said Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF's chief economist.
美国于2月发动的对伊朗战争使中东陷入暴力，由于德黑兰的报复行动，全球能源价格飙升。
The United States' war on Iran, launched in February, has plunged the Middle East into violence and seen global energy prices skyrocket as a result of Tehran's retaliatory actions.
精炼石油产品价格仍比战前水平高出70%至95%，给依赖能源进口维持经济活动的国家带来压力。
Prices of refined petroleum products remain between 70 and 95 percent above pre-war levels, putting pressure on countries dependent on energy imports for economic activity.
战争已进入第八个月，特内雷罗警告称：“中东的长期冲突可能给通胀带来额外压力并拖慢增长。”未接触AI繁荣的能源进口国最为脆弱，IMF在其WEO报告中称之为“两极化前景”。
The war is in its eighth month, and Tenreyro warned that "a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could put additional pressures on inflation and slow down growth." Energy-importing countries not exposed to the AI boom remain the most vulnerable, creating what the IMF termed a "bifurcated outlook" in its WEO report.
报告详细指出，伊朗战争与AI技术繁荣这两股经济力量共同塑造了一个“碎片化”的世界经济。
The report detailed that the twin economic forces of the war in Iran and the AI technology boom had created a "fragmented" world economy.
“长期战争和持续地缘政治紧张局势带来的逆风可能重燃通胀压力，给财政和对外状况带来紧张，并对能源进口国和低收入国家冲击最大，”报告称。
"Headwinds from a prolonged war and persistent geopolitical tensions could revive inflationary pressures, strain fiscal and external positions, and hit energy-importing and low-income countries hardest," it said.
“与此同时，如果对人工智能相关利润和生产率提升的预期遭到重估，当前的技术顺风可能会戛然而止，从而削弱投资并收紧金融条件。”国际货币基金组织对世界经济的这种分歧看法在其具体预测中显露无遗。
"At the same time, the current technology tailwind could stop abruptly if expectations about AI-related profits and productivity gains are reassessed, weakening investment and tightening financial conditions." The IMF's split view of the world economy was evident in its specific projections.
中东和中亚地区因德黑兰以华盛顿的海湾盟友为目标而直接面临伊朗战争冲击，国际货币基金组织预测该地区2026年经济将收缩0.3%。
The Middle East and Central Asia region, exposed directly to the Iran war as Tehran has targeted Washington's Gulf allies, saw the IMF forecast economic contraction of 0.3 percent in 2026.
沙特阿拉伯的预测增速出现最剧烈下滑之一，国际货币基金组织预测其将收缩3.3%——预测值下调了5.0个百分点。
Saudi Arabia saw one of the sharpest falls in projected growth, with the IMF forecasting a contraction of 3.3 percent -- a cut in the forecast of 5.0 percentage points.
国际货币基金组织表示，一旦战争结束，该地区预计将迅速反弹，但何时结束仍存在高度不确定性。在发达经济体中，由人工智能繁荣等因素驱动的增长依然强劲。
The IMF said the region is expected to bounce back quickly once the war is over, but there remains high uncertainty as to when that will be. In advanced economies, growth fuelled by the AI boom and other factors remained strong.
全球发达经济体预计2026年将增长2.1%，处于人工智能供应链中的台湾和韩国等经济体增速显著更高。
The world's advanced economies were forecast to grow by 2.1 percent in 2026, with those in the AI supply chain such as Taiwan and South Korea posting significantly higher figures.
国际货币基金组织称，作为世界第二大经济体的中国，增长预计将放缓0.5个百分点至4.5%，主要原因是国内需求疲软。
Growth in China, the world's second-largest economy, was expected to slow by 0.5 percentage points to 4.5 percent this year, the IMF said, mainly due to weak domestic demand.
受伊朗战争和人工智能繁荣推动，全球通胀预计仍将加速至2026年的4.7%，影响波及发达经济体和发展中经济体。
Global inflation remained set to accelerate to 4.7 percent in 2026, fuelled by the Iran war and the AI boom, with effects spread across both advanced and developing economies.
国际货币基金组织首席经济学家滕雷罗警告称，面对下行风险，所有国家都需要采取“紧急行动”。
IMF Chief Economist Tenreyro warned that "urgent action" was required by all countries in the face of downside risks.
在财政方面，她呼吁各国政府仅采取临时性和针对性措施，以帮助缓解高能源成本等给公众带来的负担。
On the fiscal side, she called on governments to only use temporary and targeted measures to help ease the burden on the public of high energy and other costs.
她补充说：“货币政策应始终坚定地以价格稳定为目标”，并指出为抑制高通胀而提高利率是合理的举措。
In lockstep, "monetary policy should remain firmly focused on price stability," she added, indicating that interest rate hikes to curb high inflation were appropriate.
“经济虽然具有韧性，但这种韧性已经达到了极限，”她说，“未来的任务是从应对危机转向经济重建，恢复财政空间，并增强供给端的韧性。”
"The economy has been resilient, but that resilience is reaching its limits," she said. "The task ahead is to move from coping to rebuilding, restoring fiscal space, and rebuilding supply-side resilience." aha/bgs