曼谷 – 国际货币基金组织周二警告称，政府债券收益率可能会以无序的方式上升，因为通胀上升、债务增加以及与人工智能相关的借贷正在给主权债券市场带来压力。
BANGKOK – The International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday that government bond yields could rise in a disorderly fashion, as rising inflation, mounting debt and AI-related borrowings pressure sovereign bond markets.
多个发达经济体的政府债券收益率已升至数十年来的最高水平，原因是中东冲突导致能源成本上升，以及央行希望通过收紧货币政策来遏制反弹的通胀。
Government bond yields in several advanced economies have climbed to multidecade highs, driven by higher energy costs due to the Middle East conflict and expectations for tighter monetary conditions as central banks look to curb resurgent inflation.
在其最新发布的《全球金融稳定报告》中，基金组织警告称，主权债券风险可能恶化，并指出“主权债券收益率可能出现急剧上升”。该报告于周二在泰国曼谷举行的今年IMF-世界银行年会期间发布，超过18,000名代表齐聚一堂，讨论世界经济和金融体系的现状。
In its latest Global Financial Stability Report, the fund warned that sovereign bond risk could deteriorate, warning of "a sharp rise in sovereign bond yields." The report was released Tuesday as part of the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, this week, where more than 18,000 delegates gathered to discuss the state of the world economy and the financial system.
报告指出，高债务负担和再融资风险使得债券市场“更容易受到频繁的财政和通胀冲击”。基金组织上周曾警告称，全球公共债务已接近自二战以来的最高水平，并且正朝着很快超过GDP 100%的方向发展。
High debt load and rollover risks make the bond market "susceptible to more frequent fiscal and inflation shocks," the report said. The IMF had warned last week that global public debt had reached near its highest level since World War II and was on track to soon exceed 100% of GDP.
基金组织周二表示：“鉴于主权债券市场的基础性重要性，影响可能非常严重。”收益率的急剧上升将通过更高的贴现率降低资产价值，包括与人工智能相关的资产，并侵蚀作为抵押品的政府债券的价值。
"Impact could be severe given the foundational importance of sovereign bond markets," the IMF said Tuesday. A sharp rise in yields would mark down asset values through higher discount rates, including for AI-related assets, and erode the value of government bonds posted as collateral.
基金组织还指出，人工智能公司的借贷呈指数级增长——这些公司正在与主权债券争夺投资者需求——这给债券市场带来了额外的压力。报告称，超大规模云服务商在全球投资级债券发行中的份额已从2024年前的不足1%升至10%。
IMF also noted the exponentially rising borrowing by AI firms — that compete with sovereign bonds for investor demand — as an additional source of strain on bond markets. Hyperscalers' share of global investment-grade bond issuance has risen to 10% from less than 1% since 2024, the report said.
全球人工智能建设的推动下，谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc、Meta平台公司的超大规模云服务商以及人工智能实验室今年已通过债务融资筹集了数千亿美元。
The global AI buildout has seen tech giants, such as Alphabet Inc's Google, Meta Platforms hyperscalers and AI labs raising hundreds of billions of dollars in debt this year.
“与人工智能相关的发行——其中大部分为长期债券——规模已足够大，能够与政府债券争夺投资者资金，即使它可能不是收益率的主要驱动因素，” 太平洋投资管理公司非传统策略首席投资官马克·塞德纳表示。
"AI-linked issuance – much of it longer-dated – has grown large enough to compete with government bonds for investor capital, even if it does not appear to be the dominant driver of yields," according to Marc Seidner, CIO of non-traditional strategies at Pacific Investment Management.
IMF表示，美国、欧洲和英国的流动性措施仍保持稳定，市场运作“有序进行”。虽然对冲基金的杠杆国债基差交易在回购市场中部分平仓且未出现显著压力，但剩余的杠杆使市场“容易出现无序平仓”，报告如是指出。
On the bright side, liquidity measures remain stable in the U.S., Europe and the U.K., the IMF said, and market functioning "has been orderly." While hedge funds' leveraged Treasury basis trades have partly unwound without notable pressure in repurchase markets, the leverage that remains leaves the market "susceptible to a disorderly unwind," according to the report.
IMF引用美联储数据称，对冲基金持有的美国国债比例从2022年的约4%上升至2025年的约9%，主要通过高度套利策略实现。
Hedge funds' share of U.S. Treasuries rose to about 9% in 2025 from about 4% in 2022, mostly through highly arbitraged strategies, the IMF said, citing data from the Federal Reserve.
IMF表示，日本是流动性方面的例外，其政府债券市场的流动性“持续恶化”，这是因为自收益率曲线控制政策结束以来，收益率波动有所上升。
Japan is the exception on liquidity, which has "continued to deteriorate" in its government bond market as yield volatility has risen since the end of yield curve control, the IMF said.
该基金呼吁债务管理者延长到期日，警告说，以大规模用短期借款替代长期债务的策略可能会加剧展期风险。
The fund urged debt managers to lengthen maturities, warning that rollover risk could be exacerbated by strategies that replace long-term debt with short-term borrowing on a large scale.