
08.08 CEST 早上好,欢迎收看我们对商业、金融市场和世界经济的滚动报道。
08.08 CEST Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
今年政府借贷成本的飙升正引起国际货币基金组织的担忧,因为政策制定者们正在曼谷聚会参加其年度会议。
The jump in government borrowing costs this year is causing concerns at the International Monetary Fund, as policymakers gather in Bangkok for its annual meeting.
在今天早上发布的新财政监测报告中,国际货币基金组织警告称,主权债券收益率的上升“提高了政府面临的财政风险”,因为各国政府正试图将借贷控制在可控范围内。
In its new fiscal monitor report, released this morning, the is warning that the rise in sovereign bond yields has “raised the fiscal stakes” facing governments, as they try to keep borrowing under control.
报告指出,在债务水平居高不下的时期,更高的借贷成本正在加剧财政压力,使得可信的财政紧缩更加紧迫。
Higher borrowing costs are adding to fiscal pressures at a time of high debt, making credible consolidation more urgent, it points out.
它还呼吁采取行动,警告说:“各国等待的时间越长,调整过程就会越痛苦。”不过,这说起来容易做起来难!例如,法国正面临推动一项仅能将年度赤字削减至国内生产总值5%预算的艰难斗争。而在英国,财政大臣约翰·赫利(John Healey)如果在本月晚些时候提出福利削减方案,可能会面临来自本党议员的挑战。
And it is demanding action, warning that “the more countries wait, the more painful the adjustment becomes.”This is easier said than done, though! France, for example, faces a struggle to push through a budget that would only cut its annual deficit to 5% of GDP. And in the UK, chancellor John Healey could face a battle with his own MPs if he proposes welfare cuts in his budget later this month.
国际货币基金组织指出,自2月份——伊朗战争爆发、油价飙升之时——七国集团国家10年期政府债券收益率的平均水平已上升超过1个百分点,达到近二十年来的最高水平。
points out that since February – when the Iran war began, and oil prices jumped – the average 10-year government bond yield for G7 countries increased by over 1 percentage point, reaching its highest level in nearly two decades.
照片:IMF 随着全球公共债务预计将在二战后 unmittelbar 时期首次超过全球国内生产总值的100%,此时借贷成本飙升并非良机。或者说,正如国际货币基金组织所言:在主要发达经济体中,高债务、支出压力以及未来几年大规模发行债券的前景,正在推高投资者持有长期债券所要求的收益率。
Photograph: IMF With global public debt expected to exceed 100 percent of global GDP for the first time since the immediate aftermath of World War II, this is not a great time for borrowing costs to be hitting the roof. Or, as the puts it: In major advanced economies, high debt, spending pressures, and the prospect of large bond issuance in the years ahead are putting upward pressure on the yields investors demand to hold longer-term bonds.
主要经济体的基准收益率上升也可能跨境溢出,恶化其他地区的债务动态。
Higher benchmark yields in major economies can also spill across borders, worsening debt dynamics elsewhere.
它指出,政府债务的服务成本已经急剧上升。例如,在美国,利息支出预计将从疫情前占GDP的约2.8%上升至2031年的5.7%,这大致相当于预计的社会保障支出。
points out that the cost of servicing government debts have already jumped sharply. In the US, for example, interest payments are projected to climb from about 2.8% of GDP before the pandemic to 5.7% in 2031, which is roughly equal to projected expenditure on Social Security.
对于低收入国家来说情况更糟,目前利息支出已占税收收入的15%以上。
It’s worse for low-income countries, where interest payments today consume over 15% of tax revenues.
议程:北京时间上午9点:国际能源署石油市场报告;北京时间上午9点:外交大臣埃德·米利班德在曼谷的IMF年会上发表讲话;北京时间上午9点15分:财政部特别委员会就希思罗机场扩建计划举行听证会;北京时间下午1点30分:美国9月通胀报告;北京时间下午2点15分:财政委员会就2026年预算举行听证会。
关键事件:6分钟前 08.22 CEST IMF的格奥尔吉耶娃敦促美国整顿内部事务希瑟·斯图尔特 今日上午,在泰国曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织和世界银行集团年会期间,IMF总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔吉耶娃在全球政策议程论坛的新闻发布会上发表讲话,我们的经济编辑希瑟·斯图尔特撰文报道。
The agenda 9am BST: IEA oil market report 9am BST: Foreign secretary Ed Miliband speaks at the IMF Annual Meeting in Bangkok 9.15am: Treasury select committee hearing on Heathrow expansion plans 1.30pm US inflation report for September 2.15pm Treasury Committee hearing on the Budget 2026 Key events 6m ago 08.22 CEST IMF's Georgieva urges US to get its house in order Heather Stewart Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at a news conference on the Global Policy Agenda forum during the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group in Bangkok, Thailand, this morning Wednesday morning at the IMF/World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok saw IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva give her opening press conference, our economics editor Heather Stewart writes.
周三早上,在曼谷的IMF/世界银行年会上,IMF总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔吉耶娃发表了开场新闻发布会讲话,我们的经济编辑希瑟·斯图尔特写道。
She enthusiastically reiterated the IMF’s call for major economies - including the US - to implement tougher fiscal policies.

她热情重申了IMF对主要经济体(包括美国)的呼吁——实施更严格的财政政策。“在裂缝扩大之前,紧急修补财政状况,”她说——随后她补充道:“基础很重要。整顿好你的家。否则,你的人民和你的企业将付出代价。”她强调了在拥有巨额贸易和财政盈余的国家(包括中国)与存在深度赤字的国家(如美国)之间的失衡。
“Make urgent repairs to the fiscal house, before the cracks widen,” she said - and later: “Fundamentals matter. Get your house in order. Otherwise, your people, your businesses will pay a price.”She highlighted the imbalances between countries with big trade and fiscal surpluses - including China - and those with deep deficits, such as the US.
“盈余国家需要增加国内消费。赤字国家需要多储蓄、减少债务、逐步削减赤字。”格奥尔吉耶娃还被问及欧洲的财政状况——包括法国的预算困境;以及尽管英国有削减赤字的计划,但为何其国债收益率仍居高不下——而国际货币基金组织本周对此予以赞赏。关于英国,她说:“我们需要认识到,这不仅是一个系统性重要、具有重要意义的经济体,而且伦敦是全球金融界的首都之一。传统上,我们看到,相对而言,英国对政府正在做什么、发生什么更为关注——敏感度略高。”
“Surplus countries need to increase domestic consumption. Deficit countries need to save more, cut debt, cut the deficits over time.”Georgieva was also asked about fiscal conditions in Europe - including France’s budget predicament; and why the UK’s bond yields remain so high, despite having a plan to cut its deficit - which the IMF has praised this week. On the UK, she said: “we need to recognise that it is not just a systemically important, signficant economy, but London is one of the capitals of the world for the finance community. And traditionally we have seen more attention in relative terms in the UK to what the government is doing, what is happening - a bit more sensitivity.”She added:
她补充道:“我认为英国政府知道他们需要坚持当前方向:他们需要重申对前进方向的信心。”关于法国,她坚持表示自己“持乐观态度”,认为政府有望通过一项削减未来赤字的预算,并可能安抚金融市场;但她指出,法国的困境可能产生连锁反应。她说:“我们看到,在欧元区各国,收益率出现上行趋势,即使是在传统上收益率几乎不波动的国家也是如此。”
12分钟前 08:15 CEST 提高国防开支的压力是推高政府借贷的另一个因素——欧洲各国可能需要通过削减支出而非增税或借贷来筹措这部分资金,基金组织如是指出。
“I think the UK government knows they need to stay the course: they need to reaffirm this confidence in the direction of travel.”On France, she insisted she was “positive,” about the government’s prospects of passing a budget that reduces future deficits and might reassure financial markets; but suggested the country’s travails were having knock on effects. She says: “We are seeing, across the eurozone, an impact in terms of yields edging upwards, even in countries that traditionally never see their yields move.” 12m ago 08.15 CEST Pressure to increase defence spending is another factor pushing up government borrowing – and European countries may need to fund it through spending cuts rather that higher taxes or borrowing, the Fund indicated. Speaking today in Bangkok, Rodrigo Valdes head of the
今天在曼谷发表讲话时,财政事务部门负责人罗德里戈·瓦尔德斯对记者表示:“我认为,从宏观角度看,各国应采取的措施很大程度上取决于其初始状况。然而,总体而言,国防开支将是持续的,因此即使你暂时通过举债来应对,也必须在某个时点做好准备,认识到这笔债务无法永远用于融资这一部分。”
fiscal affairs department, told reporters: “I think what countries should do from the macro perspective depends a lot in terms of their initial position. In general, however, the the defence spending will be persistent, so even if you accommodate it temporarily with debt, you have to be prepared at some point to recognise that that debt cannot forever finance this part.
第二个问题是……总体而言,欧洲国家的收入水平确实很高,因此进一步增加收入的空间非常有限;这最终会导致某些经济结构的失衡。因此,关于政府支出背后的“社会契约”(即政府支出应如何符合社会公平与经济发展原则)的讨论显得尤为紧迫。
And the second issue is that...in general, Europe has really high revenue ratios. So the space for a lot more revenues is not easy: it distorts, at the end of the day. So, the discussion about the social contract behind spending is very, very urgent.”colleague Era Dabla-Norris
同事 Era Dabla-Norris 警告道:“鉴于许多导致政府支出压力的因素将持续存在,各国将不得不在各种选择之间做出艰难的权衡。政府需要与公众进行充分的沟通与讨论,明确哪些事项是优先考虑的、哪些需求最紧迫,以及政府应该在哪些方面投入资金。”
warned: “Given the fact that many of these spending pressures are going to be persistent, there are going to be difficult trade-offs, and countries are going to have to assess carefully, in communication and dialogue and discussion with the public, in terms of what the priorities are, what needs to come first, and what governments need to spend on.”
引言:国际货币基金组织(IMF)对政府借贷成本上升的趋势表示担忧。
Introduction: IMF sounds alarm over rising government borrowing costs