国际货币基金组织周二表示，尽管预计增长将放缓，日本央行仍可能逐步提高利率“朝向中性水平”，这与面临通胀压力的其他央行保持一致。
IMF expects gradual BOJ rate hike towards neutral setting By Leika Kihara Oct 13 - The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday the Bank of Japan will likely raise interest rates gradually "toward a neutral setting" despite an expected slowdown in growth, aligning with other central banks facing inflationary pressures.
“日本的增长预计将在2026年放缓至0.7%，财政支持措施将部分缓冲能源价格上涨的影响，随着能源冲击消退和货币政策逐步正常化，增长预计将在2027年稳定在该水平。”国际货币基金组织在其《世界经济展望》报告中表示。
"Growth in Japan is projected to slow to 0.7% in 2026, with fiscal support measures partly cushioning the impact from higher energy prices, and to stabilise at that level in 2027 as the energy shock dissipates and monetary policy gradually normalises," the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook.
2026年的增长预测紧随去年1.2%的扩张。国际货币基金组织预计日本经济将在2027年增长0.7%。
The growth forecast for 2026 follows last year's 1.2% expansion. The IMF expects Japan's economy to grow 0.7% in 2027.
日本央行在9月将利率提升至31年高点1.25%，并表示已做好继续紧缩政策的准备，以防范通胀超过其2%目标的风险。
The BOJ raised interest rates to a 31-year high of 1.25% in September and signalled its readiness to keep tightening policy to forestall the risk of inflation overshooting its 2% target.
日本对燃料和原材料的进口依赖度高，使其经济特别容易受到能源冲击和货币疲软带来的通胀影响。
Japan's heavy reliance on imports for fuel and raw materials makes its economy particularly vulnerable to the inflationary impact from the energy shock and a weak currency.
国际货币基金组织在报告中指出，虽然未点名任何国家，但货币政策只有在冲击是暂时的情况下，才能“看通胀的直接和短期间接影响”。即使在这种情况下被认为适用，央行也可能需要提高名义利率，以防通胀预期上升，从而保持实际借贷成本稳定。
Without singling out any country, the IMF said monetary policy can look through the direct and short-term indirect effects on inflation "only if the shock is temporary." Even where looking through the shock is deemed appropriate, central banks may need to raise nominal interest rates if inflation expectations heighten, to keep real borrowing costs steady, it said in the report.
报告还称，汇率经历了高波动，尤其是在亚洲，这促使一些国家进行干预，包括一次日美联合行动以支撑疲软的日元。
The report also said exchange rates have experienced high volatility especially in Asia, prompting intervention by some countries, including a joint Japan-US operation to prop up the sagging yen.
“在大规模冲击 unfolding 时，维持有序调整和金融稳定至关重要，”报告称。
"Maintaining orderly adjustment and financial stability is vital while large shocks are unfolding," it said.
国际货币基金组织表示，虽然经济体应允许汇率灵活波动以吸收外部冲击，但如果市场波动无序，货币干预则成为一种选择。
While economies should allow exchange rates to move flexibly to absorb external shocks, currency intervention becomes an option if market moves are disorderly, the IMF said.
报告指出，当货币贬值出现自我强化、市场流动性蒸发，或货币波动通过大规模传导或资产负债表压力威胁价格稳定时，临时外汇干预可以被考虑。
"Where (currency) depreciation becomes self-reinforcing, market liquidity evaporates, or currency movements threaten price stability through large pass-through or balance sheet stress, temporary foreign exchange intervention" can be considered, the report said.