利率已升至15年来的最高水平，推高了抵押贷款违约风险——但家庭支出仍在增长。
Interest rates have risen to 15-year highs and are pushing up mortgage default risks – but household spending is still growing.
经济学家表示，这一令人惊讶的结果表明，今年的四次加息尚未完全冲击经济，其抑制通胀的效果可能不如以前。如果属实，这可能意味着更多的加息即将到来。那么，加息真的有效吗？澳大利亚储备银行通过提高利率试图实现什么目标？
Economists say the surprising result shows this year's four rate hikes have not yet fully hit the economy and may be less effective at fighting inflation than they used to be. If true, that could mean more interest rate rises are on the way. So are interest rate hikes working? What is the RBA trying to achieve by increasing interest rates?
澳大利亚储备银行提高其关键的现金利率，旨在削减家庭支出，并阻止企业和劳工寻求更高的价格和工资。其目标是将通胀率降至3%以下。
The Reserve Bank has increased its key cash rate to cut household spending and discourage businesses and workers from seeking higher prices and wages. It aims to bring inflation back under 3%.
金融机构现在面临更高的融资成本，并通过提高住房贷款、企业贷款或大型公司债券的利率来应对。但自今年2月首次加息以来已经过去八个月，支出并未出现下降。
Financial institutions now face higher funding costs and have responded by lifting the rates they charge for home loans, business loans or bonds for big companies. But eight months on from the year's first rate rise in February, spending is not going backwards.
经济活动放缓，企业效率降低，实际工资相比一年前出现倒退，而通胀上升。但根据澳大利亚统计局的估计，澳大利亚家庭支出却加快增长，较一年前增长近7%。
Economic activity has slowed, businesses are less efficient and real wages are going backwards compared with a year ago as inflation rises. But Australian household spending has accelerated, up nearly 7% compared with a year ago, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates.
支出增加的部分原因是必需品如燃油和食品价格上涨。但也反映出对电动汽车和非必需品的强劲需求——尤其是海外旅行。截至8月，通胀率已升至4%，这既受到石油供应中断的影响，也受到大型项目（如数据中心）大规模建设的推动，此外，当地企业也在提高价格。当消费者愿意大笔花钱时，企业更容易提高价格。更高的抵押贷款利率是否削减了家庭预算？
Part of the increase in spending is from higher prices for essentials such as fuel and food. But it also reflects strong demand for electric cars and non-essentials – particularly overseas travel Inflation has risen to 4% as of August, both because of oil disruption and mass construction of big projects like datacentres and because local businesses are lifting their prices. When customers are willing to spend big, businesses find it easier to raise prices. Do higher mortgage rates cut household budgets?
现金利率的最直接影响体现在家庭现金流上——它从借款人那里夺走资金，同时向无债务的储蓄者提供更多资金。
The cash rate's most immediate effect is on household cashflow, taking money away from borrowers while giving more to debt-free savers.
RBA数据显示，利率和物价上涨导致2%的借款人无法负担基本开支，但大多数人仍在按时还款。
RBA data shows higher rates and prices have left 2% of borrowers unable to afford essential expenses but most people are meeting repayments.
EQ Economics的董事总经理沃伦·霍根表示，过去十年抵押贷款抵消账户的出现降低了利率对现金流的影响。拥有闲置资金存放在抵消账户中的借款人——通常是因为他们有能力支付超过最低还款额——现在拥有“巨大缓冲”。澳大利亚人目前在抵消账户中的总余额接近3500亿澳元。“以前你没有同样的能力提前还款并设立抵消账户之类的东西，”霍根说。
Warren Hogan, the managing director of EQ Economics, says the emergence of mortgage offset accounts in the last decade has reduced rates' effect on cashflow. Borrowers who have spare cash in offset accounts, often because they can afford to pay more than their minimum, now have "massive buffers". Australians now hold nearly $350bn in total in offset balances "You just didn't have the same amount of capacity to pay off earlier and have offsets accounts and all that sort of thing," Hogan says.
住房拥有率正在下降，这意味着越来越多的澳大利亚人成为租房者，他们的支出不会直接受到更高抵押贷款利率的影响。
Home ownership is in decline, meaning more Australians are renters whose spending is not directly hit by higher mortgage rates.
三分之一的家庭拥有无债务住房，并从储蓄的更高利息中受益。联邦银行的数据显示，年长的澳大利亚人和无债务房主今年稳步增加了支出。房价下跌会抑制消费吗？
One in three households own their home debt-free and benefit from higher interest on their savings. Commonwealth Bank data indicates older Australians and debt-free homeowners have steadily increased their spending this year. Will falling house prices discourage spending?
贝塔施易（BetaShares）首席经济学家大卫·巴萨纳塞认为，房价下滑是利率上升和借贷成本增加直接限制经济活动的信号。
The slide in house prices is a sign that interest rates and higher borrowing costs are directly restricting economic activity, according to David Bassanese, the chief economist at BetaShares.
房价下跌也是利率上升通过间接渠道抑制消费的一种方式，因为当房屋价值下降时，房主往往会感到自身财富减少，从而削减支出。RBA的研究表明，房价下跌10%（预计将在2027年中出现）将导致消费下降1.5%。
House price slides are also an indirect channel for hikes to slow spending as homeowners tend to cut back when falls in home values make them less wealthy than they had been. RBA research suggests a 10% fall in housing prices – which is expected by mid-2027 – will cut consumption by 1.5%.
巴萨纳塞表示，消费者支出目前尚未像过去RBA模型所预测的那样显著放缓。“我们可能尚未看到主要影响，但理论上它应该已经开始发生，”他说。利率的“财富效应”通常比现金流效应变化得更慢。
Bassanese says consumer spending does not appear to have slowed yet by as much as past RBA models would imply. "We're probably not seeing a major effect yet, but in theory, it should be starting to happen," he said. The "wealth effect" of interest rates is typically slower-moving than the cashflow effect.
但大多数房主如今也比两年前更富裕，全国房价中位数已回到去年9月的水平。汇率呢？
But most homeowners are also wealthier than they were two years ago, with the median national price back to where it was in September. What about exchange rates?
储备银行表示，利率上升最重要的影响是通过汇率渠道。较高的利率往往会推动对澳大利亚的投资需求增加，从而提升澳元汇率，使进口商品变得更便宜。
The Reserve Bank says the most important effect of interest rate rises is through the exchange rate. Higher interest rates tend to push up demand to invest in Australia, lifting the Australian dollar, making imports cheaper.
但由于美国联邦储备等外国央行也在提升自身利率，澳元对其他货币的汇率一直保持相对稳定。
But the dollar has been fairly stable against other currencies because foreign central banks like the US Federal Reserve are also lifting their own interest rates.
澳元在2025年11月为65美分，在经历澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）首次三次加息后，于2026年5月升至72美分，但随后回落至69美分。其走势与澳大利亚贸易伙伴指数（包括中国、日本、欧洲和韩国）相似。
The Australian dollar rose from 65 US cents in November 2025 to 72 in May 2026, after the first three RBA rate rises but has fallen to 69 US cents. It's followed a similar path compared to an index of Australia's trade partners, include China, Japan, Europe and South Korea.
“我们在加息，但其他人也在加息，”巴萨内塞说。“我们的货币并不特别强势，尽管过去一年有所上升。”更高的失业率如何抑制通胀？利率上升旨在推高失业率，但今年这一效果甚微。
"We're raising rates, but so is everybody else," Bassanese says. "Our currency is not especially strong, although it has lifted somewhat over the past year." How does higher unemployment stop inflation? Interest rate rises aim to push up unemployment but the hikes have had little effect this year.
更多求职者使企业更容易招聘到工人而无需提高工资。工资上涨会转化为客户面临的更高价格，因此失业率上升往往意味着通胀下降。
More jobseekers make it easier for businesses to find workers without lifting wages. Higher wages would be passed on as higher prices for customers so more unemployment tends to mean less inflation.
但就业市场表现出乎意料地强劲。得益于需求增加和政府补贴，医疗和护理行业快速招聘人员；与此同时，生产力在下降，迫使企业雇佣更多工人以维持产出。
But the jobs market has been surprisingly strong. Health and care sectors have rapidly hired thanks to bigger demand and government subsidies while productivity is going backwards, forcing businesses to hire more workers to keep up production.
储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克表示，她希望看到失业率小幅上升，以减少工资对价格的压力，这一表态引发了工会的批评。
The RBA governor, Michele Bullock, has said she wants to see a small increase in jobless rates so there is less pressure from wages on prices, drawing criticism from unions.
如果劳动力规模保持不变，失业率从4.6%上升至5%将意味着额外有6万人失业。
Unemployment increasing from 4.6% to 5% would represent an extra 60,000 people out of work if the workforce stayed the same size.
但布洛克在9月加息后表示，她并不预期会出现失业，而是希望就业增长放缓，更多人选择加入劳动力市场，导致求职者需要更长时间才能找到工作。
But Bullock said after September's rate hike that she does not expect job losses, instead hoping job creation will slow and more people will look to join the workforce, leaving jobseekers searching for longer periods.
市场预计只会再加息一次，且要到2027年5月才会发生。但德意志银行策略师拉克兰·迪南警告称，加息的弱化效应将增加再次加息的风险。
Markets expect only one more rate rise and not until May 2027. But the Deutsche Bank strategist Lachlan Dynan warns rate rises' weaker effects add to the risk of another hike.
“澳大利亚家庭部门对加息的韧性超出了许多人的预期，”迪南说。“在我们看来，RBA[利率]的风险已回到向上偏斜的状态。”
"The Australian household sector has been more resilient to hikes than many expected," Dynan says. "Risks to RBA [rates] are back to being skewed to the upside in our view."