10月13日：芝加哥联邦储备银行总裁奥斯坦·古尔斯比周二表示，通胀开始感觉像是“人工智能投资热潮的溢出效应”所引发的“总体过热”，而不仅仅是供给冲击的副产品，后者会自行消退。
Oct 13 : Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday that inflation is starting to feel like "aggregate overheating" fueled by spillovers from the artificial intelligence investment boom rather than largely being a byproduct of supply shocks that will pass on its own.
“这种感觉开始像是总体过热，人工智能数据中心的成本增加正在跳出其应有范围，价格不仅在数据中心组件及其直接相关行业上涨，还在其他领域上升，”古尔斯比在接受Semafor采访时表示。
"This is starting to feel like aggregate overheating, that the AI data center cost increases are jumping out of its lane, that prices are going up in spaces that are not just components in data centers and the directly adjacent industries to data centers," Goolsbee said in a Semafor interview.
“如果你开始看到这种情况更多地蔓延到一般服务领域，看到投资品只是让GDP（国内生产总值）增速超过潜在水平，并产生这种溢出性通胀，那就有问题了，因为供给冲击不同——我们往往假定供给冲击会在相对较短的时间内自行消退——但没有人认为需求过热也会如此。”
"If you start to see more of this spreading into general services, that investment goods are just getting GDP (gross domestic product) growth up faster than potential and generating this kind of spillover inflation, that’s problematic because unlike supply shocks where we tend to assume they’re going to go away on their own in a relatively short period of time, nobody thinks that of overheating demand."
“需求过热需要很长时间才会形成，而一旦形成，就很难消除，”古尔斯比说。“所以这就是为什么经济学家中的主流观点一直是：如果你看到需求过热，就要果断行动、迅速行动，防止它蔓延到通胀预期，防止人们想当然地认为通胀永远不会消失。”
"It takes a long time for overheated demand to get going, and once it’s going, it’s hard to get rid of that," Goolsbee said. "So that’s why the conventional wisdom among economists has been if you see overheating demand, you act decisively and you act quickly to prevent that from rolling into inflation expectations, rolling into people taking for granted that it’s never going to go away."
被问及美联储是否应继续加息时，今年在利率政策上没有投票权的古尔斯比表示：“因此，如果通胀持续存在，那么我认为美联储该做什么就很清楚了。如果我们能获得一些证据，表明这种关税通胀正在消退、石油冲击带来的通胀正在消退，我们需要展示的进展并不需要太多，但如果我们要回到此前所处的降息轨道上，我们就需要开始展示一些进展。”
Asked whether the Fed should continue raising interest rates, Goolsbee, who does not have a vote on rate policy this year, said: "So if inflation remains persistent, then I think it’s clear what the Fed has to do. If we can get some evidence that this tariff inflation is going away, that the oil shock inflation is going away, it’s not too much progress that we need to show, but we need to start showing some progress if we’re going to get back on the kind of rate cutting path that we were on."
美联储在2025年曾三次降息，但面对顽固的通胀，上月三年来首次加息，将短期政策利率上调25个基点，至3.75%至4.00%的区间。利率期货市场预计，美联储将在即将于10月27日至28日举行的会议上放弃再次加息，但会在12月再加息25个基点。
The Fed cut rates three times in 2025 but last month raised rates for the first time in three years in the face of stubborn inflation, bumping its short-term policy rate up by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.75 per cent-4.00 per cent. Rate futures markets expect it will forego another increase at the coming October 27-28 meeting but will lift rates by another quarter point in December.