国际货币基金组织周二警告称，如果投资和利润预期落空，人工智能相关市场的回调可能威胁全球金融稳定，而现有的金融脆弱性可能放大冲击。
he International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that a correction in artificial intelligence-related markets could threaten global financial stability if investment and profit expectations disappoint, with existing financial vulnerabilities potentially amplifying the shock.
在曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织-世界银行年会上发布其《10月全球金融稳定报告》时，该基金组织表示，尽管市场对反复冲击和高度不确定性表现出韧性，但金融稳定风险依然居高不下。
Presenting its October Global Financial Stability Report during the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, the fund said financial stability risks remain elevated despite the resilience of markets to repeated shocks and heightened uncertainty.
国际货币基金组织货币与资本市场部官员阿塔纳西奥斯·瓦姆瓦基迪斯表示，强于预期的经济增长、强劲的企业盈利以及对人工智能的乐观情绪帮助支撑了全球市场。然而，他警告说，这种韧性不应被解读为金融体系安全的证据。
Athanasios Vamvakidis, an official in the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, said stronger-than-expected economic growth, robust corporate earnings and optimism about AI had helped support global markets. That resilience, however, should not be interpreted as evidence that the financial system is safe, he cautioned.
国际货币基金组织将人工智能相关市场回调确定为可能引发金融压力的三大风险之一，另外两个风险是主权债券收益率上升以及可能扰乱金融服务或削弱信心的网络事件。
The IMF identified an AI-related market correction as one of three major risks that could spark financial stress, alongside rising sovereign bond yields and cyber incidents capable of disrupting financial services or undermining confidence.
如果投资或盈利预期未能实现，可能出现人工智能回调。同时，通胀压力、财政失衡以及政府和私营部门的大规模借贷正在加剧主权债券市场的风险。
An AI correction could emerge if expectations for investment or profitability are not met. Meanwhile, inflation pressures, fiscal imbalances and large volumes of government and private-sector borrowing are contributing to risks in sovereign bond markets.
该基金组织警告称，尽管这些威胁单独来看可能可控，但金融体系中已存在的弱点可能放大其影响。
Although the threats could be manageable individually, weaknesses already present in the financial system could magnify their effects, the fund warned.
国际货币基金组织表示，其银行业压力测试纳入了与人工智能、债券市场和能源相关的严重冲击，结果显示银行总体上仍保持韧性。
The IMF said its banking-sector stress test, incorporating severe shocks related to AI, bond markets and energy, showed that banks remained broadly resilient.
不过，在该情景下，一部分较弱的银行将面临资本不足，脆弱机构的比例一直在上升。
Nevertheless, a group of weaker banks would face insufficient capital under that scenario, and the share of vulnerable institutions has been increasing.
该基金组织还强调了非银行金融机构的风险，包括保险公司、养老基金、私人信贷提供方和对冲基金。
The fund also highlighted risks in nonbank financial institutions, including insurers, pension funds, private credit providers and hedge funds.
保险公司和养老基金持有更多流动性较差的资产，这可能使它们在经济衰退期间面临更大的困难。私人信贷面临借款人杠杆率上升和流动性压力，这可能限制贷款。
Insurers and pension funds hold more illiquid assets, which could expose them to greater difficulties during a downturn. Private credit faces rising borrower leverage and liquidity pressures that could constrain lending.
对冲基金可以帮助支撑市场，但它们的借贷以及在类似交易中的集中度可能在条件恶化时放大压力。
Hedge funds can help support markets, but their borrowing and concentration in similar trades could amplify stress when conditions deteriorate.
新兴市场也表现出韧性，尽管一些经济体的政策缓冲较弱，以及某些前沿市场的另类融资来源透明度不足仍然令人担忧。
Emerging markets have also demonstrated resilience, although weaker policy buffers in some economies and less transparent alternative financing sources in certain frontier markets remain concerns.
国际货币基金组织呼吁政策制定者在进一步冲击出现之前加强金融韧性，指出高公共债务和有限的政策空间可能使他们的应对更加复杂。
The IMF urged policymakers to strengthen financial resilience before further shocks materialize, noting that high public debt and limited policy space could complicate their response.
其建议包括将公共债务置于可持续路径上，维护中央银行独立性，保持对通胀目标的承诺，并清晰传达政策。
Its recommendations included placing public debt on a sustainable path, preserving central bank independence, maintaining a commitment to inflation targets and communicating policy clearly.
该基金还呼吁加强网络韧性，并密切监控银行和非银行金融机构之间的风险。
The fund also urged stronger cyber resilience and close monitoring of risks across banks and nonbank financial institutions.