据两名美国官员、一名以色列官员以及第四位了解内情的消息人士透露，以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普上周讨论了在以色列和美国大选之前对伊朗发起新一轮大规模军事行动的可能性。
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Trump last week discussed the possibility of launching a major new operation against Iran before the Israeli and U.S. elections, according to two U.S. officials, one Israeli official and a fourth source with knowledge of the matter.
- 据这位以色列官员称，内塔尼亚胡在通话中表示，他非常担忧以色列情报显示伊朗正在采取令人担忧的措施，试图重新启动其核计划。
• Netanyahu said during the call that he was concerned about Israeli intelligence indicating Iran was taking troubling steps to reconstitute its nuclear program, according to the Israeli official.
- 内塔尼亚胡与特朗普就此次可能的军事行动进行的通话发生在特朗普宣布“在大选前不会对伊朗发动攻击”之前。
• The Israeli leader's call with Trump about the possible attack took place before Trump said he would not strike Iran ahead of the midterms. Why it matters:
这一事件的重要性：如果以色列和美国重新对伊朗展开大规模军事行动，将会给10月27日的以色列大选以及一周后的美国中期选举带来新的不稳定因素。
Resuming major combat operations in Iran would inject a volatile new issue into the Oct. 27 Israeli elections and the U.S. midterms a week later. • But the Israeli and U.S. militaries are still on alert and concluding preparations to be ready in case he changes his mind, sources said. • "Bibi seems to want to go in again.
- 然而，消息人士表示，以色列和美国军方仍处于警戒状态，并正在继续进行准备工作，以备特朗普改变主意。
He has talked to the president about it a couple times, and the president has said, 'Well, you know, Bibi, go ahead and get ready.' But there's really no commitment.
- 一位美国官员表示：“内塔尼亚胡似乎仍希望再次对伊朗采取行动。他已经与特朗普讨论过几次，特朗普只是说‘好吧，你去准备吧’，但实际上并没有给出明确的承诺。‘去准备吧’这个命令可能是现在生效的，也可能是以后生效的，甚至可能永远不会生效。”
'Go ahead and get ready' is maybe now, maybe later, maybe never," a U.S. official said. • A White House official said it's "false" that Trump and Netanyahu discussed resuming the war. "The President has said that we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections," the person said.
- 白宫官员称，特朗普与内塔尼亚胡讨论过恢复对伊朗的军事行动的说法是“不实的”；该官员表示：“总统明确表示，在中期选举之前，我们不会对伊朗发动任何攻击。”
• Netanyahu's office said that "the prime minister maintains regular contact with President Trump and senior U.S. administration officials and does not comment on the content of their conversations."
推动这一新闻发展的因素：在过去两周内，内塔尼亚胡与特朗普就是否重新对伊朗展开军事行动进行了多次通话。据消息人士透露，双方还讨论了可能联合开展的、针对伊朗军事和核设施的军事行动。
Driving the news: Netanyahu has had several calls with Trump over the last two weeks about returning to major combat operations in Iran. • According to the sources, Netanyahu and Trump spoke about a potential joint U.S.-Israeli operation that would hit military and nuclear targets.
- 内塔尼亚胡对以色列认为伊朗正在采取的步骤表示担忧，以色列认为这些步骤旨在重建伊朗核计划的各个部分。
• Netanyahu expressed concern about steps Israel believes Iran is taking to reconstitute all of the various parts of its nuclear program.
- 以色列尤其担心伊朗可能将斧头山用作铀浓缩场地。
• Israel is especially concerned about Iran potentially operating Pickaxe Mountain as a uranium enrichment site.
- 特朗普的最高级别内阁成员于10月2日在戴维营闭门会议数小时，讨论战争的下一步行动以及恢复打击的可能性。
• Trump's top cabinet members huddled for hours at Camp David on Oct. 2 to discuss next steps in the war and the possibility of resuming strikes. Behind the scenes:
幕后：一名以色列官员表示，特朗普最初似乎倾向于恢复袭击，但随后变得更加犹豫。
An Israeli official said Trump initially seemed to be leaning toward resuming attacks, but then grew more hesitant.
- 一名美国官员表示，特朗普在这件事上反复摇摆。
• A U.S. official said Trump has been going back and forth on the issue.
- 一位熟悉讨论情况的消息人士称，国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯和美国中央司令部的领导层是恢复对伊朗打击的最坚定支持者。
• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the leadership of U.S. Central Command are the strongest backers of resuming strikes in Iran, a source familiar with the discussions said.
- 但特朗普的大多数顾问目前倾向于继续实施经济制裁和其他形式的施压。
• But most of Trump's advisers favor keeping up economic sanctions and other forms of pressure for now.
- “他们声称这种经济勒正越来越有效。我们应该继续下去，”第二位美国官员说。
• "They claim this economic choking is working better and better. Let's keep it up," the second U.S. official said.
潜台词：重新发动打击将对两位领导人产生重大政治影响。
Between the lines: Renewed strikes would carry major political implications for both leaders.
- 恢复战争可能会对以色列选举产生重大影响，因为伊朗很可能会向该国发射数百枚弹道导弹进行报复。
• Resuming the war could dramatically affect the Israeli elections, since Iran would likely fire hundreds of ballistic missiles at the country in retaliation.
- 据知情人士透露，以色列国防军参谋长埃亚尔·扎米尔少将上周与参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军通话，讨论了在未来三周内恢复对伊朗全面作战的可能性。
• Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir spoke last week with Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine and discussed the possibility of resuming full-scale fighting against Iran within the next three weeks, according to a source briefed on the call.
- 扎米尔表示，在此期间重新发动战争可能导致以色列选举被推迟，因为伊朗很可能会进行报复，消息人士如是说。
• Zamir said that restarting the war in that timeframe could cause the Israeli elections to be postponed, given that Iran would probably retaliate, the sources said.
- 凯恩的发言人乔·霍尔斯泰德拒绝置评。
• Caine's spokesman, Joe Holstead, declined to comment.
- 对扎米尔而言，这是一个艰难的两难选择，因为在选举前发动袭击可能被视为内塔尼亚胡的政治手段，这将削弱公众对军队的信任，而军队普遍被视为非政治化的机构。
• It's a big dilemma for Zamir because a strike ahead of the elections could be seen as a political ploy by Netanyahu that would erode public trust in the military, which is largely viewed as apolitical. The intrigue:
背后的玄机：白宫了解内塔尼亚胡的国内政治考量。一位美国官员表示：“比比在中期选举前还有选举。他认为自己的优势在于作为战时总理。”
The White House is aware of Netanyahu's domestic political considerations. "Bibi's got an election before the midterms. He believes his strength is being a wartime prime minister," one of the U.S. officials said.
- 以色列官员称，在最近几天与他的安全和情报负责人会晤期间，内塔尼亚胡声称是特朗普而非他本人发起了关于在选举前可能袭击伊朗的讨论。根据这一说法，特朗普询问内塔尼亚胡以色列是否会参与。
• In meetings with his security and intelligence chiefs in recent days, Netanyahu claimed it was Trump, not him, who initiated the discussion about possibly hitting Iran before the elections, an Israeli official said. According to this account, Trump asked Netanyahu if Israel would join.
- 在美国大选前重新开战可能会适得其反，提醒选民注意这场不受欢迎的冲突，并可能导致油价上涨，从而伤害特朗普。
• Resuming the war before the U.S. election could backfire on Trump by reminding voters of the unpopular conflict and potentially sending gas prices higher. The big picture:
全景概述：卡塔尔调解人仍在等待伊朗对美国最新反提案的回应，该提案旨在结束战争，其中包括对核让步的要求。
Qatari mediators are still waiting for Iran to respond to the latest U.S. counterproposal to end the war, which includes demands for nuclear concessions.
- 一位美国官员表示：“谈判并没有真的死掉，但也没有真的活过来。我们只是在这里施压，相信那边更明智的人会占上风。”
• "The negotiations are not really dead, but they're not really alive. We're just here, piling on the pressure and there's a belief that smarter heads will prevail over there," a U.S. official said.
- 该官员补充道：“伊朗人认为这位总统会在压力和中期选举的影响下退让。他已经向他们证明了他们的错误。”
• "The Iranians thought this president would back down because of the pressure and the midterms. He has shown them the error of their ways," the official added.
- 特朗普周二重复了一句熟悉的话，对记者说：“伊朗是一个失败的国家”，“我们将很快就伊朗问题作出决定。”
• Trump repeated a familiar refrain Tuesday, telling reporters that "Iran is a failed country" and "we will make a decision on Iran very soon."