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彭博社

美国CPI高于预期引发抛售,亚洲股市料将下跌Asian Stocks to Fall as Hot CPI Sparks US Selloff

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摩根资产管理首席全球策略师戴维·凯利表示,他预计美联储不会在10月会议上加息。来源:彭博社David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, says he does not expect the Fed to raise rates at its October meeting. Source: Bloomberg

亚洲股市料将下跌,因美国通胀高于预期引发对美联储更激进加息的押注,跟随科技股引领的华尔街抛售。

Asian stocks were set for declines, tracking a tech-led Wall Street selloff after hotter-than-expected US inflation fueled bets on more aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes.

日本、韩国和澳大利亚的股指期货下跌,使地区股指走向连续第四天下跌。美国股指期货在亚洲早盘小幅下跌,此前标普500指数下跌1.1%,纳斯达克100指数遭遇自7月下旬以来的最大跌幅。罗素2000指数进入修正区间。

Equity-index futures for Japan, South Korea and Australia fell, putting a regional stock gauge on course for a fourth straight day of declines. US equity futures edged lower in early Asian trading after the S&P 500 dropped 1.1% and the Nasdaq 100 suffered its steepest loss since late July. The Russell 2000 entered a correction.

科技股成为抛售的重灾区,因加息预期升温叠加对高估值和人工智能基础设施建设巨额成本的担忧。纳斯达克半导体指数(包含英伟达公司和博通公司)延续六日跌势至11.6%。

Technology shares bore the brunt of the selloff as higher rate expectations added to concerns over lofty valuations and the enormous cost of building artificial-intelligence infrastructure. A closely watched gauge of semiconductor stocks including Nvidia Corp. and Broadcom Inc. extended a six-day slide to 11.6%.

五个月来美国通胀升幅最大,促使交易员加大对美联储进一步紧缩的押注,即使政策制定者在10月暂停,也可能面临额外加息的前景。这种转变威胁将对科技股和其他对利率敏感的资产施压,同时支撑美元。

The fastest US inflation in five months prompted traders to ramp up bets on further Fed tightening, raising the prospect of additional rate hikes even if policymakers pause in October. The shift threatens to keep pressure on technology shares and other rate-sensitive assets, while supporting the dollar.

“10月加息再次成为选项。随着今天的CPI报告显示通胀压力广泛且日益明显,美联储在遏制通胀方面越来越有可能落后于形势,”拉扎德金融咨询和资产管理业务首席市场策略师罗纳德·坦普尔写道。

“An October rate hike is back on the table. With broadening inflation pressures becoming more evident in today’s CPI report, the Fed is increasingly at risk of falling behind the curve in containing inflation,” wrote Ronald Temple, chief market strategist for Lazard’s Financial Advisory and Asset Management businesses.

随着股票抛售刺激对多年高收益债券的需求,国债收复了通胀导致的初始损失的大部分。两年期收益率一度上涨多达16个基点,最终上涨2个基点;五年期收益率首次自2007年以来突破5.15%;十年期收益率下跌2个基点至5.19%。

Treasuries recovered most of their initial inflation-driven losses as the stock selloff spurred demand for bonds near multiyear-high yields. The two-year yield jumped as much as 16 basis points before ending two basis points higher, while the five-year topped 5.15% for the first time since 2007. The 10-year yield fell two basis points to 5.19%.

美元升至一年多来的最高水平,因交易员加大了对美联储收紧政策的押注,延续了自2025年初以来最长的每周连涨纪录。市场目前预计到1月底将加息约40个基点,且10月加息的概率也在上升。

The dollar rose to its highest in more than a year, extending its longest weekly winning streak since early 2025 as traders ramped up Fed tightening bets. Markets now price about 40 basis points of hikes by the end of January, with the odds of an October move also rising.

“通胀顽固且方向错误这一点再明显不过了,”Regan Capital的Skyler Weinand表示。“虽然我们预计美联储将在10月暂停任何利率变动,但我们预计利率上调将在12月恢复。”随着通胀意外推高利率预期,贵金属价格下跌。金价下滑,银价跌至7月20日以来的最低水平,铂金和钯金也出现下跌。

“It’s clear as ever that inflation is stubborn and moving in the wrong direction,” said Skyler Weinand at Regan Capital. “While we expect the Fed to pause on any rate changes in October, we expect rate hikes to resume in December.”Precious metals tumbled as the inflation surprise pushed rate expectations higher. Gold slumped, silver fell to its lowest since July 20, and platinum and palladium also declined.

其他方面,随着俄罗斯至中东地区的敌对行动升级威胁到仅刚刚恢复至战前水平的供应流动,美国原油在早盘亚洲交易中小幅上涨。

Elsewhere, US oil inched higher in early Asian trading as escalating hostilities from Russia to the Middle East threatened supply flows that had only recently recovered toward pre-war levels.

布伦特原油收盘价升至每桶106美元以上,原因是伊朗支持的胡塞武装发动导弹和无人机袭击,覆盖沙特阿拉伯多地,包括一次损害沙特阿美总部的袭击。这些袭击加剧了伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡对油轮的攻击,威胁到海湾供应的恢复。

Brent settled above $106 a barrel after Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched missile and drone strikes across Saudi Arabia, including an attack that damaged Saudi Aramco’s headquarters. The strikes added to an escalation in Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening the recovery in Gulf supply.

“过去一周的发展再次提醒我们,供应流动的恢复并不等同于供应的安全,”标准渣打银行能源研究主管Emily Ashford表示。“随着基础设施和航运日益脆弱,风险溢价证明难以消化。”市场主要走势如下:本文由布隆伯格自动化协助制作。

“Developments over the past week are yet another reminder that recovering flows are not the same as secure flows,” said Emily Ashford, head of energy research at Standard Chartered Bank. “With both infrastructure and shipping increasingly vulnerable, the risk premium is proving difficult to unwind.”Some of the main moves in markets: This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.